Why does Ukraine want Germany's Taurus Missiles? | BBC Ukrainecast

Key Concepts:

• Aerial bombardment of Ukraine
• Russian military strength (comparison between 2022 and present)
• FPV drones
• Logistical resupply and maintenance
• Attrition rates (personnel, maritime, land, air)
• Air superiority
• Flares (as countermeasures)
• Circumventing sanctions
• Referendums in occupied Ukrainian oblasts (2022)
• Legitimacy of referendums
• De facto recognition
• Drone production in the UK/Europe
• Counter-drone technology (laser weapon systems, RF)
• Long-range missiles (Taurus/Storm Shadow)
• Commander control and logistics
• Ukrainian children deported to Russia
• Re-education camps
• Identity changes and tracing efforts

1. Russian Military Strength: 2022 vs. Present

• Initial Losses: Russia lost some of its best-trained fighters (paratroopers, marines, special forces) in 2022.
• Replenishment and Battle Hardening: Russia has replenished most losses, although the new recruits may not be as highly trained. These soldiers are battle-hardened.
• Experience Transfer: Veterans, including those with wounds, are transferring their frontline experience to young cadets in military academies.
• Production: Military factories are operating 24/7, with some running three shifts. Drone production has increased significantly, utilizing technologies from Iran and other sources.
• Conclusion: Russia is arguably stronger now than at the beginning of 2022, despite significant losses.
• Counter Argument: Despite Russia's perceived military might pre-2022, they haven't made serious inroads outside of four main areas inside Ukraine.

2. Assessment of Russian Military Capabilities

• Overestimation: Putin has shown that Russia's land, air, and maritime capabilities are not as strong as initially believed.
• Outdated Equipment: Much of the equipment being used is old.
• Logistical Issues: Logistical resupply and maintenance, particularly for equipment like MIG-29s and main battle tanks, are not as effective as expected.
• Attrition: Conservative estimates suggest over 200,000 fatalities (BBC report), with the actual number likely higher. Significant losses in personnel, maritime assets, land vehicles, and air power.
• Air Superiority Failure: Russia has failed to achieve air superiority over eastern Ukraine, despite support from Poland (F-16s) and France (Mirage 2000s) for Ukraine.
• Countermeasures: Ukraine is using flares to decoy surface-to-air missiles, and Russia is reportedly running out of flares.
• Learning from Mistakes: Russia has learned from past mistakes, such as avoiding large convoys like those seen outside Kyiv in 2022.
• Sanctions Circumvention: Russia has learned to circumvent sanctions and procure key components for drones and missiles.
• Quality vs. Quantity: While the quality of new fighters may not be the same, the quantity is consistently maintained.
• Tactics and Training: The strength of military might and the tactics, training, and procedures used on that military might is another.

3. Referendums in Occupied Ukrainian Oblasts (2022)

• Russian Ideology: Russian ideology is built on the 2014 referendums in Crimea and Donbas. Questioning the legitimacy of these referendums is illegal in Russia.
• Coercion: The 2022 referendums in the four Ukrainian regions involved Russian soldiers with Kalashnikovs accompanying ballot boxes, effectively forcing people to vote at gunpoint.
• Lack of Secrecy: The voting process lacked secrecy and independent observers.
• UN Assessment: A UN functionary described the referendums as an exercise in giving what's going on a veneer of democracy.
• International Recognition: The recognition of these referendums is not crucial. Examples include Georgia (loss of 20% territory, unrecognized except by Russia) and Northern Cyprus (recognized only by Turkey).
• Frozen Conflict: Concern exists that the conflict could become frozen, leading to de facto recognition of Russia's control over occupied territory.
• Erosion of Stance: The West's initial stance of non-recognition of Crimea and Donbas has shifted towards a potential bargaining chip.
• Putin's Strategy: Putin can afford to wait for a long time due to the lack of election cycles.

4. Drone Production and Counter-Drone Technology

• Ukrainian Expertise: Ukraine has pioneered the use of drones on a massive scale.
• British Defense Review: The British defense ministry is expected to announce a shift towards AI and drones as a new battlefield strategy.
• Counter-Drone Challenges: The ability to defend from drones is a major problem.
• Counter Laser Weapon System: The Americans have what's called a counter laser weapon system which has been trialled in the Middle East.
• RF Technology: Radio frequency (RF) technology is being explored to take drones out of the sky.
• Domestic vs. Battlefield Technology: Counter-drone technology designed for the battlefield differs significantly from domestic applications.
• Risk Assessment: The risk of downed drones falling on domestic houses or causing casualties limits the use of battlefield technology in domestic scenarios.
• Drone Swarms: Recent incidents involving swarms of drones near US airbases in the UK (Lakenheath, Mildenhall) have stalled operations.

5. Long-Range Missiles (Taurus/Storm Shadow)

• Taurus Capabilities: The Taurus missile (similar to Storm Shadow) has a range of 500 km and can target commander control centers and logistics resupply hubs.
• Strategic Impact: By pushing these centers further into Russia, it becomes harder to resupply Russian infantry in occupied regions.
• Hybrid Solution: A hybrid solution is being considered where Germany provides the intellectual property (IP) for Taurus, allowing Ukraine to develop a similar missile.
• Political Optics: This approach allows Germany to avoid directly supplying Taurus missiles.
• Deep Strike Permission: Ukraine has had attackums since 2020 probably late 2022 but what he wasn't allowed to do because he didn't have the Biden administration's permission was deep strike into Ukraine they now have that.

6. Ukrainian Children Deported to Russia

• Numbers: The Ukrainian government estimates that over 19,000 Ukrainian children have been forcibly deported to Russia. The British government estimates that more than 6,000 Ukraine children have been relocated to what the Brits call a network of re-education camps in Russia.
• Re-Education Camps: Some children are relocated to re-education camps.
• Children's Choices: Some children born in occupied territories, now 18, are choosing to go to Ukraine, often against their families' wishes.
• Identity Changes: Many children reappear in orphanage databases with changed names and surnames, making it difficult to trace them.
• Volunteer Efforts: Independent volunteers (Ukrainian and Russian) spend months connecting fake identities to real identities and helping children reconnect with relatives in Ukraine.
• Negotiations: Zalinski has repeatedly requested the return of Ukrainian children, but it is unclear if Russia or the US are willing to discuss this issue.
• Off-the-Record Negotiations: Negotiations often occur off the record through proxies, as official requests to Russian officials are met with silence.
• Two Currencies: There seems to be two different currencies. Official official version is always good Nothing is going on But it seems sometimes those consciousness gets through propaganda and on individual basis casetoase basis some Russian officials or people close to Russian officials actually help to things happen.

7. Synthesis/Conclusion

The discussion covers a range of critical aspects of the Ukraine war, from the evolving strength of the Russian military and the impact of drone technology to the legitimacy of Russian-held referendums and the tragic issue of deported Ukrainian children. The panelists highlight the complexities of the conflict, including the challenges of international recognition, the shifting political landscape, and the ongoing humanitarian crisis. The conversation underscores the need for continued vigilance and strategic adaptation in the face of Russia's evolving tactics and geopolitical maneuvering.