Does China want Russia to win the war in Ukraine? | BBC Ukrainecast

Key Concepts

• Rising Eastern Alliance: A geopolitical alignment challenging the Western-led "rules-based order," exemplified by the Beijing summit.
• Secondary Sanctions: Penalties imposed on countries that trade with sanctioned nations, like Russia.
• Security Guarantees: Assurances of protection for Ukraine, debated in the context of potential peace agreements.
• EU Accession Process: The steps Ukraine is taking to join the European Union.
• Coalition of the Willing/Ready: A group of countries supporting Ukraine, but hesitant to engage in direct military intervention.
• Kremlin Propaganda: The Russian government's manipulation of information to shape public opinion.
• Neo-Nazism Narrative: Putin's justification for the war, portraying it as a fight against neo-Nazis in Ukraine.

China Summit and the Emerging Eastern Alliance

• Attendees: Xi Jinping hosted Vladimir Putin, Narendra Modi, and Kim Jong-un in Beijing.
• Critique of the West: Xi criticized "block confrontation and bullying," signaling alignment with Russia's view on the war.
• Show of Power: The summit was interpreted as a display of strength against the Western-dominated international order.
• Alternative Names: The emerging alliance is being referred to as "Axis of upheaval" or "coalition of the wicked" by some.
• Russian Perspective: Russia views the summit as a sign that Putin is no longer isolated and that there is a viable alternative to Western-led alliances.
• Trump's Perspective: The hosts speculate that Trump may be envious of the military hardware and pageantry on display.

Sanctions and Economic Pressure on Russia

• Trump's Unfulfilled Promises: Trump has repeatedly threatened "massive sanctions" on Russia but has not followed through.
• Possible Reasons for Trump's Hesitation:
  • Sympathy for Putin's cause.
  • Fear of Russian retaliation against US interests or Trump personally.
• Secondary Sanctions Debate: The discussion revolves around why Trump hasn't implemented secondary sanctions on countries like India and China that continue to trade with Russia.
• India's Position: India's growing relationship with China and Russia is partly a result of the US imposing tariffs on India.
• Trump's Response: Trump hinted at "phase two and phase three" of sanctions, suggesting more action is planned.
• China and India's Role: China and India are major buyers of Russian oil, undermining the impact of Western sanctions.
• European Union's Dilemma: The EU faces a trade-off between imposing stricter sanctions and the potential economic consequences for its member states.
• Cost of Supporting Ukraine: The EU must decide if the cause of defending Ukraine is worth the financial and potential human cost.

Potential Peace Agreements and Referendums

• Referendum Proposal: A suggestion was made to hold UN-supervised referendums in Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine to determine their future status.
• Counterarguments:
  • Russian language does not equal support for Putin.
  • Russia's history of rigged elections and referendums.
  • Lack of free and fair campaigning in occupied territories.
  • Criminalization of dissent in Russia.
  • Demographic changes due to displacement and migration.
  • Russia's veto power at the UN Security Council.
  • Russia's opposition to foreign troops in Ukraine.

EU Membership for Ukraine

• Putin's Stated Position: Putin has stated that he doesn't object to Ukraine joining the EU.
• Accession Process: Ukraine began the EU accession process in December 2023.
• Benefits of EU Membership:
  • Increased financial support.
  • Symbolic importance.
• Limitations of EU Membership:
  • Does not provide security guarantees.
  • Requires significant reforms, such as tackling corruption.
• Consolation Prize: EU membership is seen by some as a consolation prize if NATO membership remains unattainable.

No-Fly Zone and Direct NATO Intervention

• Past Calls for a No-Fly Zone: In the early months of the conflict, there were calls for NATO to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine.
• Reasons for Rejection: The US and NATO have been unwilling to risk direct military confrontation with Russia.
• Current Situation: Ukraine has received fighter aircraft and drones from various sources and is increasingly manufacturing its own.
• Unwillingness to Escalate: The West is not prepared to risk a direct military conflict with Russia over Ukraine.
• Coalition of the Ready: The "coalition of the willing" is now being called the "coalition of the ready," but it's unclear what they are ready for.

Putin's Objectives and Potential for a Deal

• Original Objective: Putin's initial goal was to take over Ukraine and install a puppet government.
• Miscalculation: The resources expended and the level of Ukrainian resistance suggest a miscalculation on Putin's part.
• Kremlin Propaganda: The Kremlin is adept at distorting reality and presenting any outcome as a victory for Russia.
• Challenges to Putin's Narrative:
  • Zelenskyy remaining in power would be difficult to portray as a Russian victory.
  • Russians have access to alternative sources of information.
• Putin's Minimum Requirements: Putin wants either territorial control of Ukraine or control through a puppet regime.
• Neo-Nazism Justification: Putin continues to use the narrative of fighting neo-Nazism to justify the war.

Escalation and Direct Engagement

• Accusations of Russian Sabotage: Russia has been accused of conducting sabotage operations and cyberattacks in Europe.
• Missile Strike Near EU Headquarters: A missile strike in Kyiv damaged the British Council and landed near the EU headquarters, highlighting the risk of accidental escalation.
• Reluctance to Engage Directly: Europe and Canada are hesitant to get directly involved in the war, fearing further escalation.

Conclusion

The discussion highlights the complex geopolitical landscape surrounding the war in Ukraine. The emergence of a non-Western alliance, the debate over sanctions, the potential for peace agreements, and the ongoing reluctance of NATO to directly intervene all contribute to the uncertainty surrounding the conflict's future. Putin's objectives remain unclear, but his continued use of propaganda and his unwillingness to compromise suggest that the war is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. The risk of escalation, whether accidental or intentional, remains a significant concern.