Does Trump have enough Tomahawk missiles to help Ukraine? | BBC Ukrainecast

Key Concepts

• Frontline Dynamics: Slow progress, limited counteroffensives, and attritional warfare.
• Military Strategy: Attack to defense ratios, impact of weather, and the role of mechanized warfare.
• NATO Exercises: Regular, scheduled drills versus large-scale troop build-ups.
• Airspace Control: Defensive sorties, no-fly zones, and the potential for escalation.
• Tomahawk Missiles: Range, launch platforms, and potential impact on Russian targets.
• Drone Warfare: Russian collaboration with China, Ukrainian innovation, and evolving tactics.
• Energy Infrastructure Attacks: Russian targeting of Ukrainian energy facilities and their impact.
• Seasonal Changes: Impact of weather on military operations and civilian life.

Current Security Situation in Ukraine

Frontline Developments and Warfare Dynamics

The discussion begins by acknowledging the ongoing international focus on the Middle East but notes a return of attention to Ukraine, with leaders like Zelensky, Macron, and Trump expressing a desire for peace. However, the immediate situation on the ground is characterized by slow progress.

• Counteroffensives: While Ukrainian counteroffensives have occurred, they are described as "very limited action," involving the capture of small settlements or villages rather than major territorial gains.
• Pace of Advance: Experts from the Institute for the Study of War indicate that Russian troops have been advancing an average of 13.5 square kilometers per day. This is considered "much much lower than you would expect from modern mechanized warfare," suggesting an attritional nature to the conflict.
• Defining Gains: Mikey K, with his background in military aviation, emphasizes that a "gain" doesn't solely mean territorial acquisition; it can also involve halting Russian advancements.
• Factors Influencing Warfare: The effectiveness of attacks is influenced by troop numbers, armored vehicles, and the attack-to-defense ratio. This ratio is typically 3:1 in rural environments and 5:1 in urban settings, meaning an attacking force needs significantly more personnel and equipment to gain an advantage.
• Impact of Weather: The changing seasons, particularly increased mud and wet conditions, are affecting operations. Russia is attempting to exploit this, as bad weather can hinder drone effectiveness. However, these attempts are not resulting in breakthroughs.

NATO Exercises and Airspace Control

Audience questions delve into NATO's role and potential actions.

• NATO Exercises: NATO countries already conduct regular, scheduled military exercises along their borders with Russia. These are well-known to both sides and are often framed by Russian officials as evidence of NATO's aggressiveness.
• Distinction from Invasion Buildup: The current exercises are distinct from the large-scale troop build-ups seen before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
• Defensive Posture: NATO's primary stance is defensive, based on Article 5 of collective self-defense. Offensive actions are rare, with Kosovo being a notable exception.
• Capability and Logistics: A significant question is whether NATO possesses the logistical capability to conduct large-scale, unscheduled exercises outside of its normal training rotations.
• Niche Capabilities: Recent exercises, such as those in Finland, focus on "niche capabilities," like jets practicing airborne operations from roads to evade potential targeting of airbases.
• Operation Chessman: An example of such an exercise was "Op Chessman" near the Kaliningrad border in Poland, where jets practiced weekly intercepts of Russian aircraft.
• The Suwałki Gap: The strategic importance of the Suwałki Gap, a narrow land corridor connecting Russia's Kaliningrad exclave to Belarus, is highlighted. Russian and Belarusian military exercises have historically centered around this area, prompting discussions about whether NATO could have done more to establish a stronger presence there to deter potential aggression.
• Defensive Sorties Over Ukraine: The question of why European countries are not conducting defensive air sorties over Ukraine is raised.
  • No-Fly Zones vs. Air Policing: A distinction is made between air policing (intercepting incursions into sovereign airspace, like Baltic air policing) and a no-fly zone.
  • Escalation Risk: Implementing a no-fly zone over Ukraine would involve different rules of engagement and a significantly higher potential for rapid escalation with Russian aircraft. NATO is exercising extreme caution to avoid direct confrontation.
  • Potential Solution: A possible solution discussed is establishing no-fly zones over the western half of Ukraine, potentially with NATO aircraft positioned in Lviv or on the Polish border. This would require capability, formal NATO approval, and meticulously defined rules of engagement.

Tomahawk Missiles and Their Implications

The discussion revisits the topic of Tomahawk missiles.

• Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM): Described as a cruise missile with a range of approximately 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers), typically launched from warships or submarines using Vertical Launch Systems (VLS).
• Land-Based Launch: To enable land-based launches, a different launcher system, such as the American "Typhon" system, is required. The Typhon system consists of four battery units and has recently been deployed near Hiroshima, Japan.
• Operational Profile: Tomahawks typically fly at very low altitudes to evade radar detection before ascending to strike their GPS-guided targets.
• Potential Impact:
  • Precision and Reach: Tomahawks are precise weapons that could strike Russian targets deep within Russian territory, including military installations currently out of reach for Ukrainian weapons. This could be more damaging than current drone strikes on oil refineries.
  • Limited Supply: A key constraint is the US's ability to spare Tomahawks. Experts estimate the US could realistically provide only about 20 to 30, making them a "scalpel" rather than a "scythe" in Ukraine's arsenal.
  • Intelligence Dependency: The effectiveness of Tomahawks, like other advanced weapons, relies heavily on intelligence for target acquisition. Historically, this intelligence has come from the US. The deployment of ATACMS missiles, for example, was initially constrained to targets within Ukraine before being expanded to deep strikes inside Russia.
  • Variations: Different versions of Tomahawks exist, with newer models offering greater accuracy, longer range, and reduced detectability. The US would likely provide earlier versions.

Drone Warfare: A New Era

The conversation shifts to the evolving landscape of drone warfare.

• UK's Role: The UK government is actively increasing its support for Ukraine in drone warfare, collecting battlefield data to develop new technologies, and investing £600 million this year to accelerate drone delivery. The Defense Secretary has urged allies to ramp up drone production to counter Russian escalation.
• Russian Advantage (Volume): Russia is seen as having an advantage in bolstering the volume and accuracy of its drone capabilities through collaboration with China. Large factories are reportedly producing drones like the "Geran-2" (similar to a Shahed drone).
• Ukrainian Innovation (Technology): Ukraine is at the "forefront" of drone technology, operating defensively, analyzing Russian capabilities, and developing countermeasures. This creates a "pendulum swing" where neither side holds an advantage for long.
• FPV Drones: Fiber optic First-Person View (FPV) drones are discussed. Their limitation is a range of about 30 kilometers, but their fiber optic cable makes them difficult to counter with radio frequency jamming; they can only be shot down. Ukrainians are using nets over supply lines to counter them.
• Long-Range Drones: Drones capable of traveling thousands of kilometers with GPS coordinates are also in use, linking back to the discussion of precision strike capabilities.
• Evolving Tactics (TTPs): Tactics, Training, and Procedures (TTPs) are evolving rapidly. A new Russian tactic involves using loitering UAVs (drones) to specifically target drone operators by tracking their radio frequency signals.
• Countermeasures and Innovation:
  • Decoys and Fiber Optics: Ukrainians are using decoys and fiber optic FPV drones to circumvent Russian countermeasures.
  • Defensive Systems: Companies like Nordic Air Defense are developing counter-drone systems, such as a bullet-shaped projectile with a battery-operated motor and sensitive targeting system, capable of being launched in salvos of up to 100. These systems can reach speeds of 450 km/h and maneuver in the air, addressing the volume of incoming drones.
  • Agile Procurement: Tech startups are able to develop and implement new capabilities in weeks, significantly faster than traditional military procurement processes.
• Learning from Ukraine: Military experts widely acknowledge a strong willingness in Europe to learn from Ukraine's experiences in drone warfare. Ukrainian drone operators are praised for their innovation, using relatively cheap technology to counter Russian forces. However, Russia is adept at identifying and scaling up successful Ukrainian innovations.

Impact of Winter and Energy Infrastructure Attacks

The conversation turns to the approaching winter and its implications.

• Preparations: There was an initial sense that Ukraine had made good preparations for winter, but recent attacks have been "really bad."
• Energy Infrastructure: Some attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure are described as the "worst" experienced. Spectacular videos show widespread power outages in Kyiv following missile impacts.
• Frequency of Attacks: In September alone, there were 90 Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, a third higher than the average of the previous three months.
• Dual Impact: These attacks have a significant impact on civilians and also on Ukraine's defense industrial base, which relies on electricity to produce equipment and capabilities.
• Civilian Life and Seasonal Traditions:
  • Halloween: While some younger Ukrainians, influenced by American culture, celebrate Halloween with club events and decorations, it is not a widespread national tradition. Trick-or-treating is not common.
  • Older Generations' Views: Older generations may view Halloween with suspicion, associating it with negative spiritual connotations.
  • Winter Mood: The mood as the war enters its fourth winter is one of resilience, but the ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure add a layer of hardship and uncertainty.

Conclusion

The discussion highlights the complex and evolving nature of the conflict in Ukraine. While diplomatic efforts are ongoing, the military situation remains attritional, with both sides adapting and innovating. The introduction of advanced weaponry like Tomahawk missiles, coupled with the rapid advancements in drone warfare, underscores the technological dimension of the conflict. Russia's continued targeting of energy infrastructure poses a significant challenge to Ukraine's civilian population and its defense industry, particularly as winter approaches. The willingness of NATO and individual countries to learn from Ukraine's battlefield experiences and invest in new technologies demonstrates a commitment to supporting Ukraine's defense and strengthening their own capabilities.