Will Germany's new government send Taurus missiles to Ukraine? | DW News

Key Concepts:

• Taurus cruise missiles: German-made long-range missiles with a range of 500 km, low altitude flight, and double warhead.
• Red Line: Russia's warning that supplying Taurus missiles to Ukraine and using them against Russian infrastructure would be considered direct German involvement in the war.
• Kurj Bridge: A vital supply route linking Russia to Crimea, suggested as a potential target for Taurus missiles.
• Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles: Long-range missiles already supplied to Ukraine by the UK and France.
• Artillery Shells: A critical need for Ukraine, where Russia has a significant production advantage.

1. The Core Issue: Germany's Potential Supply of Taurus Missiles to Ukraine

• The incoming German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is considering supplying Ukraine with Taurus cruise missiles.
• Russia has warned Germany against this, stating that any use of Taurus missiles against Russian territory, specifically critical infrastructure, would be viewed as direct German involvement in the war, with potential consequences for Germany.
• The Taurus missile system has a range of 500 km and flies at a very low altitude, making it difficult to detect by radar systems. This makes it superior to the long-range missiles supplied by Britain, France, and the US.

2. Political Perspectives and Coordination

• Friedrich Merz stated he would only supply Taurus missiles in coordination with European partners who are already supplying cruise missiles (British, French, and Americans).
• Merz suggested that Taurus missiles could strike vital supply routes like the bridge linking Russia to Crimea.
• Outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz had previously refused requests from Ukraine for Taurus missiles, despite providing other military support.
• Scholz's Social Democrat party is part of the new government and is sending mixed signals on whether it will agree to the deployment.

3. Military Analyst Perspective: Marina Miron (King's College London)

• Why Ukraine Wants Taurus Missiles:
  • Longer range allows targeting of the Kurj Bridge and targets deep inside Russia.
  • Double warhead is ideal for targeting concrete infrastructure and underground bunkers.
  • Cruise missile design makes them less susceptible to being shot down by air defenses.
  • Symbolic value: German supply would cement European support and potentially raise Ukrainian morale.
• Taurus vs. Storm Shadow/SCALP:
  • Ukraine has a limited number of Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles.
  • Taurus is a newer and more capable missile with a different warhead.
  • Taurus missiles would increase the likelihood of destroying targets.
• Germany's Capacity and Limitations:
  • The German armed forces may not have enough Taurus missiles to make a significant difference.
  • Targeting the Kurj Bridge would require a salvo of missiles.
  • Artillery shells are a more pressing need for Ukraine.
  • Rheinmetall CEO Armen Papperger suggested that Taurus missiles alone would not make a significant difference, given existing stocks and conditions.
  • Russia's artillery shell production capacity exceeds that of all NATO states combined, highlighting the challenge of meeting Ukraine's needs.

4. Strategic Context

• Europe seeks to bolster Ukraine's defense against Russian attacks.
• Europeans also want to strengthen Ukraine's hand in any peace talks.
• Supplying long-range missiles would mark a significant shift in German policy.

5. Conclusion

The potential supply of Taurus missiles by Germany to Ukraine is a complex issue with significant military and political implications. While the missiles offer enhanced capabilities for Ukraine, including longer range and improved target destruction, concerns remain about the quantity available, the potential for escalation with Russia, and the more pressing need for artillery shells. The decision hinges on internal German politics, coordination with European allies, and a careful assessment of the strategic impact on the conflict.