Silber: Warum der Preis weiter steigen wird

Key Concepts:

• Silver Market Dynamics: Current state of the silver market, including supply shortages, demand surges, and price manipulation concerns.
• Bull Market Analysis: Discussion on whether the current market movements represent a correction within a long-term bull market or the end of one.
• Physical Silver vs. Paper Silver: Distinction between holding physical silver and trading paper silver derivatives, with emphasis on the former's importance during supply crunches.
• Silver Price Targets: Projections for future silver prices based on technical analysis and market fundamentals.
• Silver Mining Stocks: Recommendations and analysis of specific silver mining companies and ETFs.
• Macroeconomic Factors: Influence of monetary policy (interest rate cuts) on precious metals.

Silver Market Turmoil and Supply Shortage

The video begins by describing the current situation in the silver market as "hell" and in "correction mode." The central question is whether this represents a temporary correction within a long-term bull market or the beginning of the end of the bull market. The speaker suggests it's likely a healthy correction that encourages buying.

A significant point highlighted is the severe shortage of physical silver. State mints in India, South Africa, Australia, and Canada are reportedly out of silver to mint coins. This scarcity is attributed, in part, to a surge in demand originating from India during the Diwali festival, a major Hindu holiday where silver is traditionally purchased alongside gold. The speaker notes that a 100:1 ratio of silver to gold prices, previously considered unsustainable, was reached, leading to increased silver buying.

Furthermore, influential social media personalities and "finfluencers" in India have been actively promoting silver as a top trade, urging their followers to buy. This has led to a situation where, according to the speaker, manipulation efforts by large investors and banks are failing. These entities are reportedly struggling to cover their short positions, facing the risk of market exclusion and bankruptcy.

LBMA and Physical Silver Availability

The situation is exacerbated by the closure of China for the October holidays, diverting trading to the LBMA (London Bullion Market Association). Reports from London indicate that LBMA vaults are nearly empty, with remaining silver largely belonging to ETFs. This points to a global silver shortage.

The speaker contrasts past predictions of a silver shortage with the current reality, expressing satisfaction that their forecasts were accurate. The inability of numerous mints to produce coins due to a lack of silver is a key piece of evidence.

A critical technical detail mentioned is the shift in the LBMA settlement period. Previously T+1 (transaction plus one day), it has now extended to T+8 weeks, with rumors of it reaching T+10 weeks. This indicates a severe lack of readily available physical silver in London. The speaker also points to the November 28, 2025, futures delivery date as a potential point of reckoning.

Market Manipulation and Price Action

The speaker strongly argues against the idea that current market movements are normal. They cite specific instances of alleged manipulation: on September 30th and October 9th, at least 20,000 contracts were allegedly sold short, representing 100 million ounces of silver. This volume is significant when compared to the global annual silver production of approximately 830 million ounces. The speaker dismisses any notion that this is organic market behavior, stating that no one would intentionally damage their own market if they anticipated higher prices.

The recent price drop below the $50 mark is interpreted as a tactic by those who are short and unable to cover their positions. The aim, according to the speaker, is to "flush out" investors, trigger stop-losses, and acquire silver at lower prices. The speaker asserts that the $50 level is now a new equilibrium.

The speaker emphasizes the difficulty of covering short positions, especially with 560 tons of silver needing delivery since early October. They question where such quantities would come from, suggesting it's not something that can be easily transported.

Physical Silver vs. Paper Silver

A clear distinction is made between "paper silver" (derivatives) and "physical silver." While paper silver is described as "fun to gamble with," the speaker warns that when it comes to physical delivery, "it's game over" (Hose runter, wie beim Poker). The current situation is presented as precisely this scenario unfolding.

Future Outlook and Price Targets

The speaker is highly optimistic about the future of silver, citing a lack of new mine development for the next 3-5 years. They advise investors to ignore the "noise" from paper traders and media, and instead focus on acquiring physical silver and shares in good silver mining companies for the long term.

Technical Analysis and Charts

• 14-Year Silver Chart: The speaker describes the silver chart as "fantastic" and a "dream." Previous price targets of $52 have been met. The next target is $63, followed by $80, and then $111. The $111 target is projected within 2-4 years, with the possibility of it occurring even sooner.
• In-House Chart (50+ Years): An internal chart from an analyst colleague shows a "great breakout," a "cup and handle" formation, and a generally positive outlook.
• Logarithmic Chart (Annual Basis since 1933): This long-term chart indicates that silver is far from its "hot zone," suggesting significant upside potential. Technicians are projecting silver prices towards $250 in the coming years, with charts extending to 2036.
• Share Silver Trust: Mentioned as a relevant entity, though the speaker corrects a misreading of its ranking.
• Gold Miners vs. Money Supply (M2): A chart showing a 40-year breakout in the ratio of gold miners to the money supply is presented as a positive indicator.
• Magnet Chart (45-Year Cup and Handle vs. National Debt): This chart, derived from a mathematical algorithm, correlates a 45-year cup and handle formation with national debt. It projects a top price target of $666, with intermediate targets of $83.50 and $115. The speaker notes the proximity of these targets to their own projections of $80 and $111.

Investment Recommendations

The speaker provides several specific investment recommendations:

• Global X Silver Miner ETF: Holds $3.6 billion in assets and 38 positions. The speaker is invested and has seen significant gains, believing it's a good time to buy. The next price target is $98, with potential for $140-$150.
• De Silver: An old favorite, now in full commercial production with falling costs and rising output. With four mines in operation, the price target is 19.50 Canadian dollars, offering about 50-60% upside.
• Sera Matri Gold and Silver: A relatively new company (2.5 years) that has achieved commercial production and is expanding. The first price target is 2.50 Canadian dollars, representing about 100% upside. The company is profitable.
• OAR Royalties (formerly Osisco Gold Royalties): A royalty company that produces over 25 million ounces of silver annually through streams, making it one of the largest silver producers. It pays quarterly dividends. The price target is 100 Canadian dollars, offering 100% upside plus dividends.
• Discovery Silver: Another long-term recommendation. If they receive approval for their Cordero project in Mexico, the stock is expected to surge. They also acquired Porcupine, making them a gold producer with some silver. Cordero is considered one of the largest silver projects globally. The stock was recommended at $0.75 and has performed well.

Conclusion

The speaker reiterates the strong fundamentals for silver, citing a 7-year supply-demand deficit. They compare the current situation to the "EBITDA year" phenomenon, suggesting that the market is now in a phase of strong upward movement. The final advice is to remain long on gold and silver, and not to short them.