Does Germany want Ukraine to give up land for peace with Russia? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Territorial Concessions: The potential for Ukraine to cede land to Russia as part of a ceasefire or peace treaty.
• EU Accession: The process of Ukraine joining the European Union, currently linked to the resolution of the war.
• De Facto vs. De Jure: The distinction between recognizing Russian control on the ground (de facto) versus legally ceding sovereignty (de jure).
• Constitutional Constraints: The legal requirement for a national referendum in Ukraine to alter state borders.
• Transactional Diplomacy: The concern that international actors, particularly the Trump administration, view the conflict through a purely transactional lens.

1. The German Chancellor’s Stance on Territorial Concessions

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz recently suggested that Ukraine might need to accept the loss of some territory to secure a peace deal with Russia.

• Context: These remarks were made during a lecture to students and later reiterated in a press conference, suggesting a deliberate attempt to shift the diplomatic discourse.
• The "EU Carrot": Scholz linked this potential concession to a "European perspective," implying that if Ukraine accepts a difficult peace deal, the path to EU membership must be opened credibly and rapidly.
• Official Position: While Germany and the EU officially maintain that only Ukraine can decide its territorial fate, there is a growing sentiment in Berlin and Brussels that some form of compromise is necessary to break the current military stalemate.

2. The Ukrainian Perspective and Political Reality

In Kyiv, the reaction to Scholz’s comments has been muted, largely due to the strong relationship between the current German government and the Zelenskyy administration.

• Constitutional Barriers: President Zelenskyy has consistently rejected territorial concessions, citing the Ukrainian Constitution, which forbids the ceding of land. Any change would require a national referendum, which is currently politically unfeasible.
• Public Sentiment: Polling indicates that the Ukrainian public remains strongly opposed to giving up territory.
• The "Doniland" Strategy: Reports suggest Ukrainian officials have even jokingly proposed renaming Ukrainian-controlled Donbas territory "Doniland" to appeal to the transactional nature of the Trump administration, highlighting the desperation to maintain US interest.

3. EU Membership: The "Fast-Track" Dilemma

The European Union is committed to Ukraine’s eventual membership, but significant hurdles remain:

• War as a Barrier: It is widely accepted that a country actively at war cannot formally join the EU. Peace or a stable ceasefire is a prerequisite for accession.
• Economic and Structural Concerns: Ukraine is a large, impoverished nation; rebuilding it will be a massive financial undertaking. Some member states are reluctant to commit to the long-term costs of integration.
• Security Linkage: EU membership is increasingly viewed as a security guarantee for Ukraine, especially as NATO membership remains off the table.
• Timeline: While Ukraine hopes for 2027–2028, EU officials suggest a more realistic timeline might be 2030, though even this is considered "fast-track" by historical standards.

4. Methodologies for Ending the Conflict

The discussion highlights two primary frameworks for a potential end to hostilities:

• The "Crimea Model" (De Facto Recognition): Ukraine could commit to not reclaiming territory by force while refusing to legally recognize Russian sovereignty. This allows for continued international sanctions and diplomatic pressure without requiring a formal surrender of land.
• The "Ceasefire/Peacekeeper" Model: A frozen conflict scenario where international peacekeepers monitor the front lines, allowing Ukraine to rebuild while preparing for the possibility of future Russian aggression.

5. Key Arguments and Evidence

• The "Salami Slicing" Argument: Ukrainian officials argue that ceding any territory (such as the Donbas) would not satisfy Putin, but rather embolden him to pursue the rest of the country. Former PM Yatsenyuk noted that Russia’s goal is the total absorption of Ukraine, not just the eastern regions.
• The "Transactional" Risk: There is significant anxiety in Kyiv regarding the US approach. The fear is that the Trump team may prioritize "sweetheart deals" with Russia, potentially sacrificing Ukraine’s security architecture for short-term political or economic gains.

6. Synthesis and Conclusion

The discourse surrounding the Ukraine-Russia conflict has shifted toward a pragmatic, albeit painful, search for an exit strategy. Chancellor Scholz’s intervention signals that European leaders are beginning to view territorial compromise as a potential, if unpalatable, necessity to unlock a path toward EU integration and regional stability. However, Kyiv remains trapped between the reality of a grinding war of attrition and the political impossibility of legally ceding land. The consensus among observers is that while EU membership is "inevitable," it remains contingent on a cessation of hostilities that currently seems unlikely, given Russia’s stated imperial ambitions.