What is Israel's goal in Iran and why is it attacking oil facilities? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Retaliatory strikes between Israel and Iran
• Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear sites and infrastructure
• Iranian missile and drone attacks on Israel
• Civilian casualties and damage in both countries
• The role of air defense systems (e.g., Iron Dome)
• Potential for escalation and regional conflict
• US involvement and its delicate position
• Iran's nuclear program and negotiations
• Regime change in Iran as a potential Israeli goal
• Impact on daily life and public sentiment in Israel
• The Gaza conflict and its connection to the Iran-Israel conflict

Casualties and Damage in Israel

• At least 10 people have been killed and over 100 injured in Israel due to Iranian retaliatory strikes.
• A missile hit an apartment block in Batyam, south of Tel Aviv, resulting in casualties and missing people.
• Children were among those killed in the Batyam attack.
• Rescue teams are using drones and sniffer dogs to search for survivors in the rubble.
• Another Iranian missile struck a building in Tamra, a northern Israeli town, killing an Arab-Israeli family and injuring dozens.
• Many residents are feared to be missing under the rubble.
• Extensive damage to buildings, including shattered glass and windows, is reported.

Iranian Strikes and Israeli Response

• Iran launched a barrage of missiles and drones at Israel in response to Israeli attacks on its nuclear sites.
• Israel's air defenses, including the Iron Dome, intercepted many of the incoming missiles and drones.
• Israel expanded its offensive with a strike on the Shaun oil depots northwest of Thrron and another oil reservoir south of the city, resulting in massive flames.
• Israel's military issued a warning for Iranians to leave areas near weapons facilities.
• Israel claims air superiority over Iran, allowing them to strike targets relatively freely.
• Israel has been targeting not only nuclear sites but also military assets and infrastructure, including oil refineries.
• Israel struck an underground missile facility in western Iran.

Iranian Perspective and Potential De-escalation

• Iran's top diplomat stated that if Israeli attacks on Iran stop, Iran's responses will also stop.
• Sarah Bazobandi suggests Iranians are known for their delaying tactics in nuclear negotiations.
• She believes Iran's goal is not complete disarmament and that they are unwilling to negotiate over proxy groups and missile programs.
• She also notes that the current crisis is a product of nearly five decades of Islamic Republic strategies towards Israel.

Israeli Perspective and Goals

• Israelis feel they have no choice but to trust the Iron Dome, but many believe Iran has been a problem ignored for too long.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu has warned of the Iranian nuclear program for years.
• Some believe Israel's goal is to severely cripple Iran's nuclear capabilities.
• There is speculation that Israel's ultimate goal is regime change in Iran, either through toppling the Islamic Republic or forcing a complete change in its regional and domestic strategies.
• Netanyahu has warned Iranians living close to potential military targets to leave these areas.

US Role and Regional Implications

• The US is cautiously positioning itself due to its interests and alliances in the region.
• The US is wary of Iran's threats to target Emirati and Saudi oil facilities if its own are attacked.
• There is a consensus that Iran is not acting like a normal state and that its actions can only be contained through confrontation.
• Iran's support for the Houthis has disrupted maritime security in the Red Sea.

Impact on Daily Life in Israel

• Israel declared a state of emergency, requiring people to stay at home.
• Shops and airports were closed, and borders were largely shut.
• Schools remain closed, and hospitals have moved operations underground.
• People are on high alert, but there is still trust in Israel's air defense system.

Analysis of Israeli Strikes on Iranian Oil and Gas Facilities

• Simon Mayaban suggests Israel's attacks on Iranian oil and gas facilities could be aimed at pressuring Iran to accept a worse deal in nuclear talks or to destabilize the Islamic Republic and facilitate regime change.
• He notes that the choice of the name "rising lion" evokes Persian nationalism rather than Iranian and Islamic ideas, suggesting a desire to exert pressure on the Iranian economy and encourage protests.

Impact on Iranian Nuclear Program

• The IAEA has stated that there is no nuclear leak.
• The attacks have dealt a serious blow to Iran's nuclear infrastructure, knowledge production, and key scientists.
• There is concern that the attacks could prompt Iran to accelerate its pursuit of nuclear weapons as a deterrent.

Connection to Gaza Conflict

• The conflict in Iran is already distracting attention from the Gaza conflict.
• There are concerns that Western leaders are reluctant to speak out against Israel's actions in Gaza because Israel is currently under bombardment from Iran.
• It is argued that there needs to be a de-escalation and a diplomatic solution to both the question of Palestine and the Iranian nuclear program.

Conclusion

The conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated significantly, with retaliatory strikes causing casualties and damage in both countries. While Iran has signaled a potential de-escalation if Israel ceases its attacks, Israel's goals may extend beyond simply halting Iran's nuclear program, potentially including regime change. The US is in a delicate position, trying to balance its interests and alliances in the region. The conflict has also drawn attention away from the Gaza conflict, highlighting the need for broader diplomatic solutions to the region's complex issues. The attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, while not causing a nuclear leak, could potentially incentivize Iran to accelerate its pursuit of nuclear weapons.