How weakened is Iran's military after attacks from Israel and US? | DW News

Key Concepts:

• State funerals for Iranian military commanders and nuclear scientists killed in a war with Israel and the US.
• Impact of the war on Iran's military capabilities and nuclear program.
• Potential for Iran to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and pursue nuclear weapons.
• Domestic support for the Iranian regime and its use of repression.

State Funerals and Regime Support:

• Iran is holding mass state funerals for approximately 60 individuals, including top military commanders (e.g., figures from the Revolutionary Guards like Muhammad Beri and Hussein Saddami) and nuclear scientists, who were killed in a 12-day war with Israel and the United States.
• The funerals are intended to demonstrate public support for the regime after the attacks.
• However, some of the military commanders were unpopular figures due to their association with Iran's foreign wars and domestic repression.
• The funerals are also meant to express solidarity after the deaths of 600 people, including many civilians.
• The speaker contrasts this with the funeral of Qassem Soleimani in 2020, which had a huge turnout due to his charisma.

Impact of Attacks on Iran:

• Israeli airstrikes targeted military targets, state media buildings, and residential areas.
• US bombers struck Iran's nuclear facilities.
• Iranian strikes on Israel resulted in 28 civilian deaths.
• The attacks have weakened Iran's military capabilities, particularly its ballistic missile program, as evidenced by its inability to defend against air attacks during the war.
• Nuclear sites have been damaged, but the extent of the damage is debated. Initial assessments suggest the nuclear program was damaged, not obliterated, contrary to claims made by former President Trump.

Nuclear Program and International Agreements:

• Following the war, the Iranian parliament has indicated a potential shift in its nuclear policy, including the possibility of withdrawing from the NPT and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
• Leaving the NPT could be "catastrophic" as it might lead Iran to pursue nuclear weapons.

Domestic Situation and Regime Stability:

• While the regime's support is not as strong as it once was, it maintains control through repression, including detentions and executions.
• The regime's weakened state makes it "especially dangerous," particularly in the context of the domestic situation.

Conclusion:

The state funerals are a strategic move by the Iranian regime to project strength and garner support after a damaging war. While the attacks have weakened Iran militarily and potentially damaged its nuclear program, they have also created a volatile situation where Iran might abandon international agreements and pursue nuclear weapons. The regime's reliance on repression to maintain control further complicates the situation.