Why Israel needs the US to take out Iran's underground Fordo nuclear facility | DW News

Key Concepts

• Fordo Fuel Enrichment Plant: Iran's secretive, deeply buried nuclear facility.
• GBU-57/Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP)/Bunker Buster: A 30,000-pound US bomb designed to destroy deeply buried targets.
• B-2 Stealth Bomber: The only US aircraft certified to carry the GBU-57.
• Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT): An international treaty whose objective is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology.
• JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action): The Iran nuclear deal.
• Enrichment: The process of increasing the concentration of Uranium-235 in uranium.
• IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency): The international organization that seeks to promote the peaceful use of nuclear energy and to inhibit its use for any military purpose, including nuclear weapons.

Fordo Fuel Enrichment Plant and the GBU-57

• Israel has been conducting air strikes to degrade Iran's nuclear capabilities, but the Fordo fuel enrichment plant remains intact due to its location deep underground.
• The GBU-57, or Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), is a bunker-buster bomb possessed only by the US.
• The GBU-57 can penetrate up to 200 feet before detonating, making it potentially capable of targeting facilities like Fordo.
• Fordo is located southwest of Tehran and houses hundreds of centrifuges reportedly buried up to 90 meters underground.
• The IAEA has reported that Iran has used the site to enrich uranium to 60%, exceeding civilian requirements.

Potential US Military Action

• To deploy GBU-57s, the US would need to use B-2 stealth bombers, the only aircraft certified to carry them.
• Each B-2 can carry only two GBU-57s, and analysts believe multiple strikes would be needed to destroy Fordo.
• Logistics and refueling are crucial; B-2s can fly 11,000 km without refueling and further with mid-air refueling.
• Diego Garcia, an island in the Indian Ocean, is approximately 4,000 km from Iran's southern coast and hosts a US bomber squadron.

Likelihood of Success and Potential Consequences

• William Albert, a former NATO official, states that multiple GBU-57 strikes would be needed to destroy Fordo due to its depth (80-90 meters).
• A single bomb might damage the entrance, but repeated strikes are necessary to ensure complete destruction.
• Bomb damage assessment would be crucial, involving hours or days of repeated strikes.
• Confirmation of mission success could involve visual confirmation of collapse, seismographic monitoring for interior collapses, and satellite imagery using synthetic aperture radar.
• Albert suggests that radiation risk is relatively low, as uranium is enriched in gas form, and even if aerosolized, alpha particles are easily stopped. On-site effects are possible, but off-site effects are unlikely.

Iran's Potential Reaction

• Albert believes an attack on Fordo could trigger an "existential crisis" for Iran, potentially leading them to consider surrender.
• Iran might fear further attacks on leadership and other secret facilities.
• While considering surrender, Iran might attempt retaliatory strikes, though their options are limited due to the weakening of their proxies.

Diplomacy vs. Military Action

• Albert suggests that the US and Iran were scheduled to talk in Oman, indicating a potential for a deal.
• He believes Israel's attacks may have been intended to preempt a deal that Israel wouldn't be comfortable with, forcing the US's hand.
• Trump's escalation of demands to "unconditional surrender" adds uncertainty.
• Any deal would require intrusive monitoring, potentially exceeding the level of the JCPOA.
• Without comprehensive monitoring, Iran might attempt to rebuild its nuclear program in secret.
• Albert believes Iran made a mistake by reacting sharply to the IAEA condemnation.

Perspectives on Fordo's Importance and Iran's Intentions

• Manuel Herrera, a senior policy fellow at BASIC, emphasizes Fordo's importance due to its protection.
• He notes that Iran has two main enrichment facilities: Natanz and Fordo, with Fordo being better protected.
• Herrera states that, to the best of our knowledge, Iran has not made a political decision to develop a nuclear weapon.
• Enrichment levels of 20% and 60% were likely aimed at political leverage.
• Recent actions, such as the Iranian parliament's bill to withdraw from the NPT, raise concerns about Iran's future intentions.
• Strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities might have fueled a decision to pursue nuclear weapons.

Feasibility of Disabling Fordo and Environmental Concerns

• Herrera states that the feasibility of destroying Fordo's enrichment capacity is uncertain until a GBU-57 is used operationally.
• Even if the enrichment capacity is curtailed, Iran possesses the technology and know-how to rebuild its nuclear infrastructure.
• Herrera acknowledges concerns about environmental consequences if Fordo is destroyed with explosives, potentially leading to radiological leaks.
• The IAEA has not detected any radiological leaks, but that could change.

Synthesis/Conclusion

The situation surrounding Iran's Fordo nuclear facility is highly complex and volatile. While the US possesses the GBU-57 bunker-buster bomb capable of potentially destroying the facility, its use carries significant risks, including the need for multiple strikes, potential environmental consequences, and the possibility of escalating the conflict. Experts disagree on the likelihood of success and the potential for Iran to rebuild its nuclear program. Diplomacy remains a possible path forward, but it would require intrusive monitoring and significant concessions from Iran. The decision to pursue military action or diplomacy rests on a delicate balance of factors, with potentially far-reaching consequences for the region and the world.