Ukraine’s efforts to develop high-tech weapons | DW News

Ukraine-Russia Conflict: Peace Talks, Drone Warfare, and International Response

Key Concepts:

• Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia
• Long-range military drones
• Arms control and international treaties
• Sanctions against Russia
• Sovereignty and security of Ukraine
• Frozen Russian assets

1. Peace Talk Proposals and Conditions

• Zelensky's Proposal: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated his willingness to travel to Turkey for peace talks proposed by Russia and called for a face-to-face meeting with Vladimir Putin.
• Russia's Response: Moscow remained silent regarding the proposal for a direct meeting. Russia's Foreign Minister Serge Lavrov and his Turkish counterpart discussed the talks, but no further details were provided.
• Trump's Involvement: Former US President Donald Trump offered to join the talks in Turkey, expressing optimism about a potential positive outcome.
• Ukrainian Demands: Ukraine's primary demands for any potential agreement are the preservation of its sovereignty and security. They are open to political and diplomatic means to recover territories, but sovereignty and security are non-negotiable.
• Russia's Stance: Russia did not respond to a Monday ultimatum for a 30-day ceasefire, indicating that they find the absence of an agreement bearable.

2. Drone Warfare and Technological Development

• Ukrainian Drone Development: Ukraine is focusing on developing high-tech weapons, particularly long-range military drones, to counter Russia's larger army.
• Liut Drone: The Liut drone is one of many Ukrainian developments used against enemy targets.
• Range and Capabilities: One drone being developed has a range of 3,000 kilometers.
• Targeting: Drones have been used successfully against Russian infrastructure, such as oil refineries.
• Impact on Russian Oil Revenues: Ukrainian attacks are credited with reducing Russian oil revenues by 10%.
• Production Challenges: Scaling up drone production is a challenge, with reliance on foreign suppliers and limited state funding.
• Feedback Loop: Ukraine has a unique feedback loop where they develop a drone, give it to special forces for testing, and then use the feedback for modernization.
• Demand: The industry needs to produce 10,000 long-range drones each month to satisfy the demand of the armed forces.
• Frank Sliper (PAX): Drones are extremely important for both sides, with heavy investment in both small, controlled drones and long-range drones.
• Accuracy: Shorter-distance drones are mostly quite accurate, targeting ammunition depots and oil infrastructure.
• Russian Drone Development: Russia initially relied on Iranian-made Shahed drones but has invested heavily in its own development.

3. International Response and Sanctions

• European Union Sanctions: The European Union is considering a 17th package of sanctions against Russia.
• Frozen Assets: A powerful action would be taking frozen Russian assets and giving them to Ukraine.
• Arms Trade Treaty: The Arms Trade Treaty, the main arms export control treaty, does not include Ukraine, Russia, or Sudan.
• Lack of Controls: There is concern that the further development of drones may go out of hand without proper international controls.
• Mikola Biliskov (National Institute for Strategic Studies): The price of the absence of agreement is bearable for Russia, so sanctions and pressure are needed to change their calculation.
• Unity: Preserving the unity of the transatlantic coalition of Europe is most important in strategy towards Russia.

4. Concerns about Escalation and Proliferation

• Use in Other Conflicts: There are concerns about drone technology being utilized in other conflicts, such as in Sudan.
• Accessibility: The technology is becoming easier to obtain and use in conflict, potentially increasing casualties.
• Arms Control Gaps: Existing arms export control frameworks may not adequately cover drones, requiring further work in this area.

5. Trump's Potential Peace Plan

• Territorial Concessions: Trump's proposed peace plan involved potential recognition of Russian control over Crimea and four eastern Ukrainian territories.
• Security Guarantees: There is no commitment from the United States about any security guarantee for Ukraine after any sort of talks.
• Limited Armed Forces: There is no pressure to Ukraine to limit its own armed forces, and there is readiness to support Ukrainian armed forces development in different ways.
• NATO Membership: Trump is critical of NATO in general and Ukraine's prospects to join NATO.

6. Casualty Figures and Territorial Control

• Territorial Control: Russia controls about 20% of Ukrainian territory.
• Casualty Estimates: Russia is estimated to have lost between 200,000 and 250,000 troops. Ukraine reported 46,000 losses in February, but experts believe the number to be much higher. About 13,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed.

Conclusion

The conflict between Ukraine and Russia remains complex, with ongoing fighting and diplomatic efforts. Ukraine is focusing on developing its own drone technology to counter Russia's military advantage. International efforts to achieve a ceasefire and peace talks are ongoing, but significant challenges remain, including Russia's willingness to negotiate and concerns about the proliferation of drone technology. The key issues at stake are Ukraine's sovereignty and security, and the international community's ability to establish effective arms control measures.