Trump to announce 'aggressive' weapons plan for Ukraine: What to expect | DW News

Key Concepts:

• Patriot air defense systems
• Offensive vs. Defensive weapons
• Long-range missiles (JDAMs, JSUMs)
• Deep strike capability
• US support for Ukraine
• EU funding for Ukraine
• Putin's strategy and calculations
• Negotiated settlement

Donald Trump's Stance on Patriot Missiles and Ukraine

• Donald Trump states the US will send Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine, funded by the European Union. "But the European Union is paying for it. We're not paying anything for it, but we will send it". This reverses a recent pause in shipments due to US stockpile concerns.
• Trump teases a "major statement on Russia," with Axios reporting a potential plan to arm Ukraine with offensive weapons, a shift from his previous stance.
• He expresses frustration with Vladimir Putin's behavior: "Uh he talks nice and then he bumps everybody in the evening. So there's a little bit of a problem there and I don't like it."
• Despite agreeing to send the Patriots, Trump indicates the quantity is yet to be determined "I haven't agreed on the number yet, but they're going to have some because they do need protection."

Potential Shift to Offensive Weapons and Deep Strike Capability

• Jacob Kirkegaard, senior fellow at the Bugal Institute, anticipates the announcement of offensive weapons, specifically long-range missiles, beyond just Patriot systems.
• He defines "offensive weapons" as providing "deep strike capability inside Russia," something Ukraine has lacked.
• Deep strike capability is defined as the ability to hit targets further than 150 kilometers from the border.
• Examples of deep strike weapons mentioned include JDAMs (Joint Direct Attack Munitions) and JSUMs (Joint Standoff Weapon System).

Implications of a Policy Shift

• Kirkegaard emphasizes that providing these weapons would be a "massive U-turn for US policy" not only for Trump but also for the Biden administration, which previously opposed such measures. Specifically, he mentions Joe Biden himself and former National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan.
• He speculates that Trump's change of heart is due to running out of patience with Putin.
• The differentiation between offensive and defensive weapons is discussed. Defensive weapons protect Ukrainian population, territory and army, primarily air defense missiles and Patriot systems.

Impact on the War's Trajectory

• Kirkegaard believes these weapons alone won't cause a "Ukrainian breakthrough" immediately.
• He argues that it may convince Putin he "cannot win this war," potentially pushing him towards serious negotiations.
• He suggests Putin has been betting on declining US and EU support for Ukraine, hoping to exhaust them, which hasn't materialized.
• Massive US entry with offensive weapons could change Putin's calculations, prompting negotiations.

Global Shortage of Air Defense Missiles

• It is emphasized that even with launchers in place, an adequate supply of missiles for the Patriot systems is crucial.
• Kirkegaard highlights a global shortage of advanced air defense missiles, which could impact the effectiveness of the aid.

Conclusion

The potential policy shift by the US to provide Ukraine with offensive weapons, particularly long-range missiles, represents a significant escalation in support. While it may not immediately change the war's dynamics, it could alter Putin's perception of the war's winnability, potentially leading to negotiations. The funding of Patriot systems by the EU and the need to address the global shortage of air defense missiles are critical factors for the success of this strategy.