Ukraine coalition: A pledge to take Russian oil and gas off global markets? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Coalition of the Willing: An alliance of countries united to achieve a specific objective, in this context, ending the war in Ukraine.
• Long-Range Missile Systems: Advanced weaponry capable of striking targets at significant distances, a key request from Ukraine.
• Security Guarantees: Assurances provided by one state to another regarding its safety and territorial integrity.
• Sanctions: Penalties imposed by countries on another nation to exert pressure, often economic in nature.
• Ceasefire: A temporary suspension of fighting.
• Peacekeeping Force: Military personnel deployed to maintain peace in a conflict zone.
• Fossil Fuels: Natural fuels such as coal or gas, formed in the geological past from the remains of living organisms.

Meeting of the Coalition of the Willing in London

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Prime Minister Keir Starmer at Downing Street as part of a "coalition of the willing" to discuss strategies for ending the war in Ukraine. The meeting, also attended by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, and Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof, with approximately 20 other leaders joining via video link, including French President Emmanuel Macron, aimed to project unity.

Key Points and Discussions

• Strengthening Ukraine's Capabilities: Prime Minister Starmer emphasized the need for Western partners to enhance Ukraine's long-range missile systems. He stated, "I think there's further we could do on capability, particularly long-term um uh long range capability."
• Security Guarantees: The coalition's work on necessary security guarantees for Ukraine was highlighted as vital.
• Interconnected Security: Starmer asserted that Ukraine's security is intrinsically linked to that of other nations, stating, "Ukraine's future is our future. What happens in the weeks and months ahead is pivotal for the security of the United Kingdom and all our allies across NATO and beyond."
• Pressure on Putin: The determination to "dial up the pressure on Putin and finally bring him to the negotiating table in good faith" was a central theme.
• Sanctions on Russia: The meeting followed US President's plans for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin being put on hold and the imposition of sanctions on Russia's two largest oil firms. These sanctions are intended to "starve them of revenue and significantly increase the pressure on Putin to come to the negotiating table."
• Clear Plan for the Year: Starmer indicated that the coalition had developed a clear plan for the remainder of the year, though specific commitments were not disclosed.

Global Response to Russian Oil and Gas

The discussion extended to the global reliance on fuel and gas, particularly Russian imports, and the implications of sanctions.

• Phasing Out Russian LNG: The EU has agreed to phase out Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.
• US Sanctions: The US has sanctioned the two top Russian oil and gas producers.
• China and India's Role: While there are signs that China and India might be curbing their imports of Russian oil and gas, the duration and potential for secondary sanctions if they do not comply remain uncertain.
• Dependency on Fossil Fuels: The situation underscores the world's dependency on fossil fuels, prompting warnings from politicians and experts about the need for reduced reliance.

The Role of the United States and European Allies

The absence of the United States from the "coalition of the willing" was noted, with discussion on the allies' capacity to achieve objectives independently.

• European Military Assistance: European military assistance to Ukraine has surpassed that of the United States, demonstrating a significant ramp-up in support.
• Post-Ceasefire Support: The coalition has been discussing how to support Ukraine after a hypothetical ceasefire, including military assistance and the potential deployment of troops.
• US as a "Backstop": European allies are hoping the US will provide a "backstop" and a further deterrent against Russian aggression towards coalition members.
• European Initiative: The coalition is seen as a way for Europe to demonstrate its ability to organize and act independently, thereby constructively showing the US its capabilities.

Controversy Surrounding Troop Deployment

The commitment to sending troops to Ukraine after a ceasefire, as stated by Starmer, is a controversial topic due to the lack of concrete security guarantees.

• Lack of Security Guarantees: There are no explicit security guarantees in place for a European peacekeeping force in Ukraine, especially in the absence of US backup.
• Risk of Confrontation: The primary risk identified is a direct confrontation with Russian troops.
• Broader Commitment: Beyond troops, the initiative signifies Europe's commitment to peace in Ukraine, financial aid, coordinating sanctions, and diplomatic efforts, positioning Europe as a key player in peace talks.
• Focus on Pressure: Currently, the emphasis is on pressuring Vladimir Putin to agree to peace rather than on immediate peace negotiations.

President Zelenskyy's Perspective

President Zelenskyy's reception in Britain and Brussels was warm.

• Sanctions and Missiles: While acknowledging the 19th round of sanctions against Russia and further oil and gas measures, Zelenskyy noted the absence of long-range missiles ("Tomahawks") he had hoped for from the United States.
• Contextualizing Progress: Despite the unmet missile request, Zelenskyy indicated that "things could be worse," suggesting a pragmatic view of the progress made.

Conclusion

The meeting of the "coalition of the willing" in London underscored a unified European commitment to supporting Ukraine and pressuring Russia towards peace. While significant steps have been taken in imposing sanctions and bolstering military aid, key challenges remain, including the need for enhanced long-range capabilities for Ukraine and the establishment of robust security guarantees. The coalition's efforts to demonstrate European autonomy in security matters are evident, though the ultimate resolution of the conflict and the specific roles of international actors are still unfolding.