Ukraine strikes Russian oil refinery near Moscow following drone attacks | DW News

Key Concepts

• Retaliation: Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian oil refineries as a response to Russian attacks.
• Infrastructure Attacks: Russia targeting Ukrainian power, water, and residential infrastructure.
• International Law Violations: UN Secretary General's condemnation of Russian attacks.
• Drone and Missile Attacks: Specific numbers of drones and missiles used by Russia.
• Falling Debris and Casualties: Consequences of downed Russian drones and missiles.
• Strategic Strikes: Ukraine's targeting of Russian energy sector and bringing the war to the Russian people.
• Oil as War Funding: The role of oil revenue in sustaining the Russian war effort and supporting allies.
• Battlefield Progress: The limited impact of deep strikes on Russia's operational progress.
• Defensive Lines: Ukraine's strategy of strategic withdrawal and establishing new defensive positions.
• Morale Management: Key strategies for maintaining soldier morale in combat (celebration and rotation).
• Attrition Warfare: Russia's strategy of making small, continuous gains at high cost.

Ukrainian Retaliation and Russian Attacks

Ukraine has stated it struck a Russian oil refinery near Moscow in retaliation for a series of drone attacks on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. These Russian attacks resulted in at least seven fatalities in the Ukrainian capital, with drones targeting power and water infrastructure, as well as residential areas. The UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, has condemned these attacks as violations of international law.

One Ukrainian mother recounted her harrowing escape with her 14-year-old son from their second-floor apartment in Kyiv. Flames blocked their usual exit, forcing them to escape through a window, with people on the ground attempting to catch them. Despite their efforts, the mother sustained a leg injury.

Scale and Impact of Russian Attacks

Early Friday morning, flames erupted at multiple locations in Kyiv. Ukrainian authorities reported that Russian forces deployed 430 drones and 18 missiles. While most were intercepted, falling debris and resulting fires caused damage to residential buildings and led to multiple casualties. A witness described how three people were killed in the apartments adjacent to hers, including her neighbor and his father, who were killed by a falling ceiling.

Ukrainian Response and Strategic Objectives

In response to the Russian attacks, Ukraine launched drones and long-range missiles into Russian territory, specifically targeting Moscow's oil and gas facilities. This action is intended to make the war more visible to the Russian populace, demonstrating that there is a price to pay for Russia's actions against Ukraine. The targeting of the energy sector, particularly oil, is a strategic move aimed at pressuring the Russian government to negotiate a settlement. Oil is identified as a critical revenue source for the Russian military machine, funding both internal war costs and payments to allies like Iran, North Korea, and China. A substantial decrease in oil revenues could necessitate changes to the war effort.

Russian Strategy and Battlefield Dynamics

Mark Hansen, a former Colonel in the U.S. Marine Corps Reserve and Senior Advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, explained Russia's strategy as an attempt to exert enough pressure on the Ukrainian population through attacks on infrastructure, particularly around the capital and other major cities, to induce them to demand peace.

Hansen also commented on the effectiveness of Ukraine's deep strikes into Russian territory. He stated that these strikes are unlikely to slow Russia's progress on the battlefield, which is primarily driven by operational factors near the front lines. However, these strikes serve two purposes: bringing the war to the Russian people and potentially pressuring the Russian government towards negotiations by impacting its revenue streams.

Regarding the fighting in cities like Bakhmut and Avdiivka, Hansen described Ukraine's strategy of holding cities as long as possible before conducting strategic withdrawals to establish new defensive lines. This approach was observed in Bakhmut and is likely to be employed in Avdiivka if Russian advances continue. He characterized the Russian advance as a process of "chewing away" at the front line, making small but continuous gains at a high cost.

Maintaining Morale in Combat

Hansen identified two key elements for military leaders to maintain soldier morale in combat: celebration and rotation.

• Celebration: This involves making frontline soldiers feel valued and supported by society, ensuring they don't feel exploited. Ukraine is noted as having done a good job in celebrating its combat forces.
• Rotation: This entails periodically withdrawing forces from the front lines to allow them to go home, rest, rebuild units, and undergo training. Hansen observed that Ukraine has not performed as well in this area, having committed almost all its forces to the front lines due to pressure, which can lead to service member burnout, even with high motivation.

Conclusion

The transcript details the escalating conflict between Ukraine and Russia, highlighting Ukraine's retaliatory strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and Russia's continued attacks on Ukrainian civilian and critical infrastructure. It analyzes the strategic implications of these actions, the dynamics of the battlefield, and the crucial aspect of maintaining soldier morale amidst prolonged warfare. The discussion underscores the interconnectedness of military operations, economic factors (oil revenue), and psychological warfare in the ongoing conflict.