Can Europe supply Ukraine with enough gas to get through the winter? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Gas Imports: Ukraine's need to secure external sources of natural gas for winter consumption.
• Domestic Gas Production: Ukraine's own natural gas extraction capabilities, which are under threat from Russian attacks.
• Diversification of Supply: The strategy of sourcing gas from multiple countries and through various routes to ensure security.
• European Energy Sector Transformation: The shift in natural gas flow routes within Europe following the cessation of Russian gas deliveries.
• LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas): A key component of the new European energy map, often imported from the US and Qatar.
• Air Security and Air Defense: Crucial for protecting Ukraine's domestic energy infrastructure.

Gas Deal with Greece and European Support

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's visit to Athens marks the initial phase of a European tour aimed at securing continued support for Ukraine. A primary objective of this visit is to finalize an agreement for essential gas imports, a critical measure as Ukraine faces its fourth winter at war.

Finnish President Alexander Stubb indicated on Sunday morning that a ceasefire is unlikely before spring, emphasizing the imperative for Europe to maintain its support for Ukraine. President Zelenskyy highlighted the significance of the gas deal with Greece, stating, "We are not wasting a single day for our country and have already prepared an agreement with Greece on gas for Ukraine. This will be another source of gas to secure import routes for the winter as much as possible."

Ukraine has already secured agreements for financing gas imports and anticipates covering the need for approximately €2 billion euros to compensate for losses in Ukrainian production caused by Russian strikes.

Criticality of the Gas Deal for Ukraine

Alberto Ritzi, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations specializing in geoeconomics, explained the crucial nature of this trip for Ukraine. He stated that the country has lost roughly half of its domestic gas production due to relentless Russian attacks. To prevent Ukrainians from facing cold and darkness this winter, as Putin might intend, diversifying supply and securing new volumes from ports like Alexandroupolis in Greece is essential. This strategy serves both root diversification and the influx of new gas volumes into the country from sources such as the US, Qatar, and Egypt, thereby shoring up the country's gas consumption and reserves. Ukraine has already begun depleting its reserves to offset domestic production losses.

Capacity of Partner Nations to Deliver Gas

The ability of partner nations to deliver the required gas volumes to Ukraine is a key consideration. Imports from Greece primarily originate from the US and Qatar, which are considered secure sources with sufficient capacity to provide the necessary volumes.

However, the situation with Egypt is more complex due to structural difficulties, including depleting and aging gas fields that yield less gas, coupled with rising domestic consumption. These factors make it more challenging for Egypt to export energy to Europe and, consequently, to Ukraine.

Azerbaijan already supplies gas to Ukraine, and while the volumes are relatively small, they provide crucial strategic depth and diversification to Kyiv. Nevertheless, rapidly increasing these volumes is difficult because Baku already imports a small quantity of Russian gas to meet its domestic consumption, thereby freeing up its own gas for export to Europe, including Ukraine.

Therefore, in this intricate landscape, any external supply is vital for Ukraine, but maintaining a certain level of domestic production remains essential. This is where the second part of Zelenskyy's trip, a visit to France, becomes more significant, focusing on discussions about air security and air defense capabilities, which are indispensable for protecting Ukraine's own gas fields from Russian attacks.

Transformation of the European Energy Sector

Alberto Ritzi elaborated on the impact of the cessation of Russian natural gas deliveries to Europe. He noted that the European energy sector now operates with a completely altered map of gas flows. Instead of east-to-west flows, the direction is now west-to-Europe, with US LNG and gas from Norway coming from the north, and supplies from the Middle East, the Gulf, and Africa arriving from the south.

Ritzi commended the European energy sector for its remarkably rapid and effective substitution of Russian gas with indigenous energy resources within just three years, a swift transition in energy terms. However, this has often involved importing more expensive LNG and undertaking structural changes within each country.

Two dynamics are highlighted as important for the future: Europe's own drive for efficiency in the medium term and the global oversupply in the LNG market, which is expected to lead to less price pressure on European industrial players.