UK ‘not worried’ about US review of AUKUS | 7.30

Key Concepts:

• AUKUS (Orcus): A trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
• Nuclear-powered submarines: Submarines powered by nuclear reactors, offering greater endurance and stealth.
• Optimal pathway: The agreed-upon plan for Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines under AUKUS.
• Virginia-class submarines: A class of nuclear-powered attack submarines operated by the US Navy.
• Maintenance and sustainment hub: A facility for maintaining and repairing submarines, ensuring their operational readiness.
• BR cores: British-designed nuclear reactor cores.
• Speed of relevance: Acting quickly and efficiently to meet the demands of the current strategic environment.

Orcus Review and UK Commitment

• Steven Lodgrove conducted a review of Orcus for the incoming Labor government in the UK.
• The review found a strong commitment to all parts of the Orcus program (submarine and advanced technology) in the UK, possibly even stronger than before.
• The main challenge is now execution, specifically adhering to the optimal pathway.
• Lodgrove expressed confidence in meeting the required timelines, based on soundings from Australian and American colleagues.
• He made recommendations to improve and accelerate the program.

UK Submarine Production Targets

• The UK aims to build 12 nuclear-powered submarines, producing one every 18 months.
• Achieving this requires significant investment in infrastructure and shipyards, particularly the main boatyard in Barrow.
• The UK government is investing approximately £6 billion into the Barrow boatyard and another £0.5 billion into a key steelworks before the end of the decade.
• This investment aims to provide the necessary capacity to meet the production targets.

Australian Investment and Value for Money

• Australia has committed $4.7 billion to the UK for the design of the new Orcus submarine and the supply of nuclear reactors.
• Lodgrove assures that Australian officials and ministers have negotiated hard bargains on behalf of Australian taxpayers.
• He acknowledges the absence of alternatives to building the nuclear cores in the UK (Derby).
• He believes the contribution from Australian taxpayers is justified, given the use of British BR cores in Australian submarines.

Pentagon Review and US Support

• Lodgrove is not worried about the Pentagon review of Orcus, despite Under Secretary Elbridge Colby's past skepticism.
• He considers it appropriate for new governments to review programs of this scale.
• Orcus provides significant value to the US, particularly in maximizing the number of Virginia-class submarines in operation.
• Australia's contribution in establishing Western Australia as a maintenance and sustainment hub is crucial for the US, enabling more Virginia-class submarines to be deployed.
• Lodgrove believes the review will yield positive outcomes for the US, the partnership, and regional security.

Henderson and Maintenance Capabilities

• Lodgrove will visit Henderson in Western Australia to assess its potential for supporting US submarine maintenance.
• He emphasizes the importance of acting at the "speed of relevance" to ensure the maximum number of Virginia-class submarines are operational.
• If additional investment in Henderson is necessary to achieve this, it should be carefully considered.

Addressing Skepticism and Ensuring US Interests

• Lodgrove acknowledges Elbridge Colby's past skepticism but notes that Colby expressed support for Orcus during his confirmation hearings, emphasizing the need to ensure it aligns with US interests.
• He differentiates between statements made outside and within government.
• Lodgrove highlights the strong bilateral support for Orcus within the US, including the US Navy, State Department, and Defense Department.

Conclusion

Lodgrove's assessment emphasizes the strong commitment to Orcus from all parties, particularly the UK. While challenges remain in execution and meeting production targets, significant investments are being made to address these issues. The program is seen as mutually beneficial, enhancing security for all three nations. Despite some skepticism, Lodgrove expresses confidence that the Orcus partnership will continue to strengthen and deliver positive outcomes.