What prompted the US' review of its AUKUS security alliance?

Key Concepts:

• AUKUS security pact review
• US-Australia relations under the Trump administration
• Australian defense spending
• US foreign policy in the Indo-Pacific
• Australian security and regional partnerships
• "America First" agenda
• US dominance vs. partnership

AUKUS Review and its Prompting Factors:

• The US has launched a review of the AUKUS security pact, raising questions about its commitment to the agreement.
• The timing of the review has been linked to suggestions in the Australian media that it is related to Pete Hegseth's insistence on increased Australian defense spending and the Australian government's reaction to it.
• Emma Shortis suggests that a review was always likely, given the potential transfer of sensitive US naval technology to Australia.
• The review raises questions about whether it is genuinely about US security or a negotiation tactic to pressure Australia to increase defense spending.

Transactional Nature of US Foreign Policy:

• Under Donald Trump, US foreign policy is often transactional.
• Australia was already committed to spending upwards of $368 billion on the AUKUS deal, with a $500 million deposit already paid.
• Shortis characterizes the US approach as "effective bullying tactics" towards its traditional allies.

Potential Implications of US Pulling Out or Altering AUKUS:

• Shortis argues that the AUKUS deal was always likely to fail, and Australia might never have received the submarines.
• The potential collapse of the deal offers Australia an opportunity to rethink its security strategy and relationship with the US.
• The deal falling over doesn't make Australia any less secure than it was before.

Trump Administration's Commitment to Partnerships:

• The Trump administration has made its views on traditional partnerships clear to countries like Ukraine and Canada.
• Australia is not an exception to this approach.
• There is a growing recognition of this reality among Australians and people in the US.

Benefits of AUKUS and Regional Security:

• The US was set to benefit the most from the AUKUS deal, with Australia already providing $500 million with no strings attached.
• The deal potentially left Australia more exposed, as the submarines were designed for operations far from Australian shores.
• AUKUS was not necessarily a benefit to Australian security or the region, which had concerns about the deal.

"America First" Agenda and Indo-Pacific Commitment:

• The US claims to be committed to the Indo-Pacific region while prioritizing its "America First" agenda.
• Shortis argues that the US commitment to the Indo-Pacific, particularly under Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, is about American dominance rather than partnership.
• She emphasizes the importance of understanding the Trump administration's intentions, which are focused on dominance.

Australia's Potential Alternatives and Regional Partnerships:

• Australia has a history of seeking an external protector, but this is not necessarily true.
• Australia is a significant economic power with strong regional partnerships.
• Australia is capable of making independent decisions and building regional security through deepened diplomacy.
• Australia doesn't necessarily need a "great protector" and can focus on independent decision-making and regional security.

Notable Quotes:

• "Effective bullying tactics of the Trump administration towards its traditional allies." - Emma Shortis, describing the US approach to Australia.
• "When the United States says... it's committed to the Indo-Pacific, what it means is it's committed to American dominance of the Indo-Pacific." - Emma Shortis, highlighting the difference between partnership and dominance.

Technical Terms and Concepts:

• AUKUS: A trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
• Indo-Pacific: A geopolitical region encompassing the Indian and Pacific Oceans, seen as a key area of strategic competition.
• Transactional Foreign Policy: An approach to international relations where agreements and alliances are based on tangible benefits and exchanges.

Synthesis/Conclusion:

The AUKUS security pact review highlights the complexities and potential pitfalls of relying on the US as a primary security partner under the Trump administration. The review, potentially driven by transactional interests and a desire for dominance, presents an opportunity for Australia to reassess its security strategy, strengthen regional partnerships, and recognize its own agency in ensuring its security. The interview suggests that Australia should focus on independent decision-making and deepen its diplomacy within the region rather than solely relying on a "great protector."