Out of pocket and stranded: What happens if Trump pulls out of AUKUS | Four Corners Documentary

Key Concepts

• Orcus Agreement: A trilateral security pact between Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom, primarily focused on providing Australia with nuclear-powered submarines.
• Virginia Class Submarines: American-made nuclear-powered attack submarines that Australia is slated to acquire under the Orcus agreement.
• SSN-Orcus: A new class of nuclear-powered submarines to be designed and built jointly by the UK and Australia, with the UK leading the design phase.
• Capability Gap: The potential period where Australia lacks effective submarine capabilities due to the retirement of the Collins-class submarines before the arrival of the new submarines.
• Deterrence: The strategic goal of discouraging potential adversaries (specifically China) through a visible and credible military capability.
• Workforce Capacity: The availability of skilled labor, particularly welders and machinists, to build submarines at the required rate.
• Degradation Clause: A clause in US legislation that requires the President to certify that the transfer of Virginia-class submarines to Australia will not degrade US undersea capabilities.
• HMA Stirling: An Australian naval base near Perth that will host visiting US nuclear submarines and eventually serve as a home base for Australia's submarines.
• America First: A foreign policy approach emphasizing US national interests and potentially prioritizing domestic needs over international commitments.

US Submarine Production and the Virginia Class

• Production Rate: The US is currently building Virginia-class submarines at a rate of approximately 1.2 per year, significantly below the required rate of 2.3 per year to meet its own needs and fulfill the Orcus commitment.
• Workforce Shortages: A major factor limiting production is a shortage of skilled workers, particularly welders and machinists, in US shipyards.
• US Navy Goal: The US Navy aims to have a fleet of 66 attack submarines but is currently about 7 boats short of that target.
• Colombia Class Submarine: US shipyards are also tasked with building the new Colombia-class ballistic missile submarine, which is 2.5 times the size of a Virginia class, further straining capacity.
• Orcus Funding: Australia is providing financial contributions to the US to help increase submarine production capacity, with an initial payment of $800 million already made.
• Delivery Timeline: The US is expected to deliver the first Virginia-class submarine to Australia in the early 2030s.
• Degradation Clause: The US President must certify to Congress that the transfer of submarines will not degrade US capabilities, potentially allowing the US to back out of the deal.

Strategic Rationale and Geopolitical Context

• China's Military Buildup: The Orcus agreement is largely driven by concerns about China's rapid military expansion in the Indo-Pacific region, including its growing submarine fleet.
• Deterrence Message: Orcus is intended to send a clear message of deterrence to China, signaling a united front from the US, Australia, and the UK.
• Operational Benefits: Having another ally with nuclear-powered submarines in the region expands the operational capabilities of the US and its allies.
• China's Perspective: China views Orcus as a challenge to its growing influence and has conducted naval exercises near Australia as a show of force.
• Strategic Dilemmas: The goal of Orcus is to create strategic dilemmas for China, forcing it to consider the presence of undetectable submarines in the region.

Australian Concerns and Sovereignty

• Capability Gap: If the Virginia-class submarines are delayed or not delivered, Australia faces a potential capability gap with its aging Collins-class submarines nearing the end of their service life.
• Financial Risk: Australia has committed significant financial resources to the Orcus program and could lose those funds if the deal falls through due to US actions.
• HMA Stirling as a US Base: There are concerns that HMA Stirling could become a de facto US base if Australia does not receive its own submarines, relegating Australia to a support role.
• Loss of Sovereignty: Critics argue that Orcus could compromise Australia's sovereignty by making it dependent on the US for submarine capabilities and potentially drawing it into conflicts not in its direct interest.
• Government Rejection: The Australian government rejects the notion that Orcus compromises sovereignty, emphasizing that HMA Stirling will remain an Australian base.

UK's Role and the SSN-Orcus

• Design and Construction: The UK, specifically BAE Systems in Barrow-in-Furness, will lead the design and construction of the SSN-Orcus submarines, with some production potentially taking place in Adelaide, Australia.
• Timeline: The first SSN-Orcus submarine is expected to be delivered to Australia in the early 2040s.
• Workforce Challenges: The UK submarine industry also faces workforce challenges, requiring significant training and recruitment efforts.
• Reactor Development: Rolls-Royce is developing a new nuclear reactor for the SSN-Orcus, but the program has faced challenges and delays.
• Size and Maneuverability: The SSN-Orcus will be a large submarine, raising concerns about its maneuverability in shallow waters.
• Dreadnought Program: The UK's priority is the Dreadnought program, which involves building nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines, potentially impacting the timeline for the SSN-Orcus.
• NATO Focus: The UK's primary security focus is on NATO and Europe, which could affect its commitment to the Orcus program.

Trump Administration and Uncertainty

• Review of Orcus: The Trump administration has initiated a review of the Orcus agreement, raising concerns about its commitment to the deal.
• America First Policy: Trump's "America First" policy and his skepticism towards alliances create uncertainty about the future of Orcus.
• Defense Spending Demands: The Trump administration is demanding that Australia increase its defense spending, potentially straining the relationship.
• Unpredictability: Trump's unpredictable foreign policy and his willingness to challenge long-standing alliances are a major source of concern for Australia and other allies.
• Colby's Opposition: Elbridge Colby, a key figure in the Trump administration, has publicly opposed the transfer of Virginia-class submarines to Australia.

Conclusion

The Orcus agreement represents a significant strategic shift for Australia, but its success is far from guaranteed. The US faces challenges in increasing submarine production, and the UK is grappling with its own workforce and reactor development issues. The unpredictable nature of US politics, particularly under a potential second Trump administration, adds further uncertainty. While officials express confidence, the program faces significant risks of delays and cost overruns, potentially leaving Australia with a capability gap and a substantial financial burden. The program's success hinges on sustained political will, effective industrial capacity building, and strong collaboration between the three partner nations.