Trump suggests regime change in Iran: What would it involve? | DW News

Key Concepts

Regime change, Iranian nuclear program, US military strikes, Operation Midnight Hammer, bunker busters, Tomahawk missiles, Iranian retaliation, proxy warfare, Strait of Hormuz, popular sentiment, US foreign policy, Middle East conflict, Emirates Policy Center.

US Strikes on Iran and Potential Regime Change

• Trump's Statement: President Trump raised the possibility of regime change in Iran, stating that if the current regime cannot "make Iran great again," regime change might be necessary. This marks a departure from his previous criticisms of regime change policies.
• US Air Strikes: The US conducted air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, claiming to have "obliterated" the Iranian nuclear program.
• UN Assessment: The UN's atomic agency chief stated that it's impossible to properly assess the damage.
• Targeted Sites:
  • Fordo: Satellite images show the Fordo nuclear site, built deep inside a mountain, before and after the strikes. The images show what are believed to be entrance holes from US "bunker busters," capable of penetrating up to 60 meters below the surface.
  • Isvahan: Images also show the Isvahan nuclear site before and after being struck by Tomahawk missiles launched from a US submarine.
• Operation Midnight Hammer: US Defense Secretary Pete Hexith stated that the operation, codenamed "Operation Midnight Hammer," devastated the Iranian nuclear program. The operation was authorized to neutralize threats to US national interests, the collective self-defense of US troops, and ally Israel.
• Iranian Retaliation: Iran responded by firing a barrage of missiles at Israel, some of which caused extensive damage in Haifa and Tel Aviv. A banner appeared in these cities thanking Donald Trump for striking Iran.
• Iranian Response: Iran's foreign minister condemned the attack, stating that the US has crossed every red line. The Iranian president vowed to retaliate.

Political and Public Reaction

• US Domestic Pressure: There is growing domestic pressure on Trump regarding the strikes, with some Democratic and Republican lawmakers calling on Congress to limit the President's use of military force in Iran.
• Republican Support: Republican leaders in the Senate and House of Representatives are largely backing the US attack.
• Anti-War Platform: Trump campaigned on an anti-war platform, criticizing "forever wars" in the Middle East. The strikes are testing his support, especially among those who opposed US involvement.
• Iranian Protests: Hundreds of Iranians protested against the US strikes.
• Popular Sentiment: Even extreme opposition to the Ayatollah regime in Iran are against the strikes and bombing campaigns.

Analysis by Katrina Samour (Emirates Policy Center)

• Pressure on Iran: The strikes are seen as an attempt to pressure the Iranian regime to make concessions.
• Limited Impact on Discourse: The strikes have not significantly changed the Iranian leadership's discourse.
• Lack of Internal Support for Regime Change: There is no coalition or opposition within Iran capable of forming a government in the event of regime change.
• Civilian Casualties: Concerns are raised about civilian casualties resulting from the strikes.
• US Superpower Message: The strikes sent a message about US military might and logistical capabilities.
• Uncertainty About Damage: While Trump claims the nuclear sites were obliterated, experts suggest the enriched uranium may have been moved. Iranian and Russian reports indicate that the Iranian infrastructure has not been completely destroyed due to its fortifications.
• Downplaying by Iran: Iran is likely downplaying the impact of the strikes to avoid the need for a larger retaliation.
• Proxy Warfare: Iran is likely to retaliate through its proxies, which have been weakened.
• Strait of Hormuz: Iran may threaten to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Mobilizing Discontent: Iran may try to mobilize popular discontent against the US, tapping into Arab anger over recent events.
• Broader Context: The conflict should be viewed in the context of the past two years, including the war in Gaza, the bombing of Lebanon, and intervention in Syria.

Conclusion

The US strikes on Iran have escalated tensions in the Middle East, with the possibility of regime change being openly discussed by President Trump. While the US claims to have significantly damaged Iran's nuclear program, the true extent of the damage is uncertain. Iran is likely to retaliate through its proxies or by disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict is occurring within a broader context of regional instability and growing anti-US sentiment. The long-term consequences of these actions remain to be seen.