Nuclear program or regime change: What does Israel really want in Iran? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Iran-Israel Conflict Escalation
• Iranian Nuclear Program
• Israeli Preemptive Strikes
• International Diplomacy
• Civilian Casualties
• State of Emergency in Israel
• Ballistic Missiles
• Iron Dome Defense System
• JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action)
• Regime Change in Iran

Summary of Iran-Israel Conflict

Immediate Aftermath of Strikes

• Casualties and Damage: Israel's Army Radio reported eight deaths and dozens of injuries in Iran's latest missile strikes. Missiles evaded the Iron Dome, impacting multiple cities including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Fires erupted near Haifa's port, including the main power plant.
• Tel Aviv Scene: DW correspondent Tanya Kmer reported from Tel Aviv, describing scenes of destruction and residents returning to salvage belongings. The US consulate building sustained slight damage.
• Missile Impact: Kmer, reporting from a shelter, emphasized the deadly impact of missiles evading Israel's defense shield, causing widespread devastation beyond single buildings.
• Comparison to Past Conflicts: The current situation differs from past conflicts with Hamas, Hezbollah, or Yemen, indicating a more significant threat.

State of Emergency and Its Impact

• Extended Emergency: The state of emergency in Israel is extended until the end of the month, effectively shutting down the country.
• Travel Disruptions: The airport is closed, stranding both Israelis abroad and those seeking to leave the country. Land borders offer limited alternatives.
• Daily Life Disrupted: Tel Aviv, usually bustling, is quiet, especially in the evenings and mornings. Residents face disrupted sleep due to frequent alerts and shelter visits.
• Public Support: Despite the disruptions, there's considerable public support for the Israeli government's preemptive strikes. However, uncertainty prevails regarding the conflict's duration.

Israeli Military Strategy

• Ongoing Air Strikes: The Israeli military has maintained continuous air strikes on Iran since the operation began.
• Intensified Strikes: Prime Minister Netanyahu has vowed to intensify strikes, with no de-escalation in sight.
• Targeted Attacks: The military claims to have struck a command center of the Al-Quds forces in Tehran and is actively targeting surface-to-surface ballistic missiles to prevent launches.
• No De-escalation: The current strategy indicates no immediate plans for de-escalation, suggesting the operation is in its early stages.

Perspectives on the Conflict

• Potential for Escalation: Historian and Middle East expert Renee Vilangel emphasized the high potential for escalation and the suffering of civilians.
• Unclear Goals: Vilangel criticized the Israeli government's unclear goals, which have shifted from targeting the nuclear program to destroying the military sector and even regime change.
• Need for Diplomacy: Vilangel urged the international community, particularly the EU and Germany, to prioritize diplomacy to avoid the civilian losses seen in Gaza and Lebanon.
• Iran's Credibility: While acknowledging doubts about the Iranian regime's credibility, Vilangel noted that negotiations were underway before the attack.
• Military Solution Doubts: Most experts agree that military attacks cannot eliminate Iran's nuclear program.
• Counterproductive Outcome: Vilangel warned that the conflict might incentivize Iran to seek a nuclear weapon for self-protection, similar to North Korea.
• Illegality of Attacks: Vilangel stated that Israel's attack on Iran violates international law, while Iranian attacks targeting civilians are also illegal.
• JCPOA Revival: Vilangel advocated for a return to diplomatic efforts like the JCPOA to constrain Iran's nuclear program, independent of erratic approaches.

Analysis of the Conflict's Development

• Long-Term Conflict: Karan Martin, a senior lecturer on international politics, noted that the conflict has been brewing for two decades.
• Failed Negotiations: The latest round of negotiations was canceled due to unacceptable conditions from the American side, particularly regarding uranium enrichment on Iranian soil.
• Israeli Objectives: Israel aims to destroy Iranian nuclear and missile facilities, potentially pressuring the US to join in attacking inaccessible sites like Fordo.
• Iranian Defense Weakness: Martin highlighted Iran's poor civilian defense preparations, leading to significant casualties.
• Israeli Air Superiority: Israel has established uncontested air superiority, allowing them to degrade Iranian missile capabilities.
• Damage to Nuclear Capabilities: In the initial days, Israel inflicted significant blows to Iranian nuclear facilities, air defense systems, and senior IRGC commanders.
• Regime Legitimacy: The attacks undermine the Iranian government's internal and external legitimacy, which are closely tied to the nuclear and missile projects.
• Inability to Protect: The government's inability to protect its people from the conflict further erodes its legitimacy.
• Potential for De-escalation: The assassination of the Supreme Leader, though vetoed by Trump, could paradoxically lead to de-escalation under a new leader.
• Risk of Backfire: Attacks targeting civilians could backfire, potentially uniting some people behind the regime.
• Internal Fragility: Netanyahu believes the Iranian state is internally fragile due to economic issues, corruption, and repression.
• Delayed Nuclear Program: Israel's objective is to delay Iran's nuclear program and missile project, buying time for further coordination with the US.
• Gambling on Regime Collapse: Netanyahu is gambling that the regime might collapse due to its weaknesses, though this outcome is uncertain.

Conclusion

The conflict between Israel and Iran is a complex and escalating situation with significant regional and global implications. The immediate aftermath of strikes has resulted in casualties, damage, and disruption of daily life. While Israel pursues military objectives, experts emphasize the need for diplomacy and warn against the potential for escalation and counterproductive outcomes. The conflict's long-term impact on the Iranian regime, regional stability, and the future of the Iranian nuclear program remains uncertain.