Israel-US Attacks on Iran: A Detailed Analysis
Key Concepts:
- Operation Epic Fury: The name given to the coordinated US-Israeli military operation against Iran.
- Regime Change: The stated strategic aim of the US and Israel, according to sources in the report.
- Revolutionary Guard: Iran’s elite military force, responsible for retaliatory attacks.
- Fifth Fleet: The US Navy fleet based in the Gulf State of Bahrain, targeted by Iran.
- De-escalation: Efforts to reduce the intensity of the conflict.
- Resilience/Resistance: The overarching strategic aim of the Iranian regime.
- Naked Power: The dominance of force in international politics and diplomacy, as described by Professor Gz.
I. Initial Attacks and Retaliation
The report details a series of coordinated attacks launched by Israel and the US against Iran, dubbed “Operation Epic Fury” by President Trump. The objective, as stated by Trump, is the “annihilation” of the Iranian regime’s defenses and the elimination of “eminent threats.” Initial strikes targeted the capital, Tehran, with state media showing destruction and witnesses reporting smoke near the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s offices. Khamenei has not been publicly seen in days.
In response, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard launched a wave of drones and missiles targeting Israel and US bases in the region. Blasts were reported in the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait, where a significant number of US troops are stationed. Airlines worldwide have cancelled flights, and airspace over much of the Middle East is closed due to escalating fears of a wider conflict.
II. Justification for Action & Iranian Response Expectations
Israel’s Prime Minister justified the attacks, stating that inaction would lead to a nuclear Iran with “tens of thousands of ballistic missiles” intent on Israel’s destruction. He argued that acting, despite the risks, was the only viable option for Israel’s survival. (“Challenging days await us. Every military action involves risk. But the risk of not acting is much greater because if we do not act, we will get a nuclear Iran.”)
President Trump urged the Iranian people to overthrow their government following the strikes. However, Professor Faras Gz of the London School of Economics cautioned against this approach, arguing that historically, Iranians “rally around the flag” when under attack. He warned that Trump’s call for uprising could be “suicidal for tens of thousands of Iranians” due to the government’s continued popular support. Gz characterized the conflict as the beginning of a “long war” with potentially “catastrophic” consequences. He emphasized that the overarching strategic aim of Trump and Netanyahu is regime change in Iran, but expressed skepticism about its feasibility.
III. Analysis of Strategic Aims & Feasibility of Regime Change
Both Professor Gz and Ha Helier, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, agree that regime change is the primary goal of the US and Israel. Gz believes Trump’s goal of destabilizing the government is unrealistic, stating that air power alone cannot bring about regime change in Iran, given the Islamic Republic’s deeply entrenched position and significant popular support. He described the situation as a display of “naked power” dominating international politics, with international institutions “shattered to million pieces.”
Helier concurred that regime change is the objective, but also doubted its achievability without either an external ground force or mass defections within Iran. He stated that the absence of an organized opposition capable of taking power would likely result in the emergence of a new authority from within the existing regime.
IV. Iranian Strategy & Regional Implications
Professor Gz believes Iran is preparing for a “long war,” focusing on “resilience, resistance, and absorbing the shocks.” He noted that Iran’s initial response has been “minimalist,” suggesting a strategy of prolonging the conflict and playing for time.
Helier explained that Iran’s retaliatory attacks on other Middle Eastern countries are intended to pressure those nations to urge the US to de-escalate. However, he cautioned that these attacks could backfire, prompting those countries to align more closely with the US.
V. International Response & Future Outlook
Russia and China have requested an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council, where they are expected to condemn the US-Israeli actions. However, both experts believe that this will not materially alter the course of the conflict. Helier anticipates continued strikes and a potential escalation, noting Trump’s stated commitment to ending the current regime.
Helier predicts that the conflict will likely become unpopular within the US, drawing parallels to the Iraq War. He suggests Trump may attempt to recoup support after an initial period of strikes. He also highlighted the lack of appetite for a ground invasion, emphasizing the need for an alternative source of authority within Iran for regime change to be successful.
Data & Statistics:
- Tens of thousands of US troops stationed in the UAE, Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait.
- Iran possesses “tens of thousands of ballistic missiles” (according to Israel’s Prime Minister).
Conclusion:
The coordinated attacks on Iran represent a significant escalation of tensions in the Middle East. While the stated goal is regime change, experts express skepticism about its feasibility without a ground invasion or internal upheaval. Iran appears to be preparing for a protracted conflict, prioritizing resilience and resistance. The situation is highly volatile, with the potential for wider regional conflict and significant humanitarian consequences. The international community’s response is likely to be largely symbolic, with the US and Israel seemingly determined to pursue their objectives despite widespread condemnation.
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