South Sudan: Fears intensify of return to civil war | DW News

Key Concepts:

• South Sudan political instability
• Rivalry between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar
• 2018 Peace Deal unraveling
• Risk of renewed Civil War
• Ethnic conflict
• Misinformation, disinformation, and hate speech
• UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS)
• Deficit of trust between leaders

1. Background and Escalating Tensions:

• South Sudan gained independence from Sudan on July 9, 2011, after decades of conflict.
• A power-sharing government was formed in 2018 between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar after a devastating civil war.
• Tensions have been rising due to a "deficit of trust" between Kiir and Machar.
• The situation escalated after a military action in Nassir, where a government contingent was overrun. A UN crew member was killed during an extraction.
• Several opposition leaders and military commanders have been arrested.

2. The Arrest of Riek Machar:

• The arrest of Vice President Riek Machar on charges of trying to stir a rebellion is a significant event contributing to the escalating tensions.
• The UN Special Representative, Nicholas Haysom, did not provide specific details of the arrest but highlighted the growing distrust between the leaders.

3. Nature of the Conflict:

• The conflict is described as starting as a political conflict that quickly turns into an ethnic conflict.
• Alarming levels of misinformation, disinformation, and hate speech are circulating online, exacerbating the ethnic dimension of the conflict.

4. Current Situation in Juba:

• The capital city, Juba, is described as "calm but tense."
• The streets are quiet, but there is widespread anxiety among citizens about a potential return to full-blown civil war.
• Residents' memories of the previous civil war iterations in 2013, 2016, and 2018 contribute to their anxiety.

5. UN's Role and Concerns:

• The UN mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) is working to prevent a return to civil war.
• The UN is urging all parties to exercise restraint and de-escalate the situation.
• The UN is concerned about the potential for massive loss of life if the conflict escalates.

6. International Community's Response:

• The international community is largely united in asking the parties to exercise restraint.

7. Notable Quotes:

• Antonio Guterres (UN Chief) said that "all the dark clouds of a perfect storm have descended on South Sudan."
• Nicholas Haysom (UN Special Representative): "What commences as a political conflict turns quite rapidly into an ethnic conflict."

8. Synthesis/Conclusion:

The situation in South Sudan is precarious, with a high risk of renewed civil war due to escalating tensions between President Kiir and Vice President Machar. The conflict is fueled by political rivalry, ethnic divisions, and the spread of misinformation. The UN is actively working to prevent further escalation, but the situation remains volatile and requires immediate attention to avoid a humanitarian catastrophe.