Sudan civil war leaves millions needing aid and thousands believed dead | BBC News

Key Concepts

• Rapid Support Forces (RSF): A paramilitary faction currently engaged in a civil war against the Sudanese army.
• De Facto Partition: A situation where a country is effectively split into two or more territories controlled by different factions, despite no formal legal division.
• Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs): Grassroots volunteer networks and community kitchens providing essential aid to civilians in the absence of sufficient international support.
• Drone Warfare: The increasing use of unmanned aerial vehicles by both warring factions, leading to high civilian casualties in markets, hospitals, and social gatherings.
• Humanitarian Crisis: A state of emergency characterized by mass displacement, famine, and the collapse of the health sector.

The Humanitarian Crisis in Sudan

Sudan is currently experiencing what is described as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, now entering its fourth year. The conflict has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths and the displacement of approximately 12 million people.

• Displacement and Poverty: Nearly 34 million people require humanitarian assistance, and approximately 70% of the population is living below the poverty line.
• Famine and Health: Famine has been declared in parts of the country, and the national health infrastructure has effectively collapsed.
• Funding Gap: Despite the severity of the crisis, international aid agencies have received only 16% of the required funding as of this month.

Evolution of the Conflict

The war has shifted geographically over the past three years. While the capital, Khartoum, has seen a relative decrease in intensity, the conflict has migrated to the resource-rich Kordofan states and the Darfur region.

• Front Lines: Fighting is concentrated in the southern Kordofan states, which are described as "extremely deadly and disruptive."
• Tactical Shifts: The conflict is increasingly defined by drone warfare. Since the beginning of the year, nearly 700 civilians have been killed by drone strikes. Notable incidents include an air strike on a wedding that killed 58 people and a strike on a hospital that killed approximately 70, both attributed to the army.
• Regional Involvement: Both the Sudanese army and the RSF are backed by regional powers, none of whom are currently exerting sufficient pressure to force a peace agreement.

The Threat of De Facto Partition

Analysts warn that the country is moving toward a permanent "de facto partition." Experts note that once such a division solidifies on the ground, it becomes historically difficult to reverse. The lack of progress in peace negotiations—including failed attempts by the U.S. envoy to broker a humanitarian ceasefire—suggests that neither side is willing to compromise, as both believe they can achieve their objectives through military force.

Grassroots Resilience

Amidst the collapse of state services and the lack of international attention, local solidarity has emerged as a critical lifeline.

• Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs): These are local volunteer groups that have organized to provide food and medical support.
• Community Kitchens: Citizens are rallying to support one another, though these groups face increasingly bleak prospects as the war continues to destroy food production capacities and disrupt supply lines.

Synthesis and Conclusion

The war in Sudan remains largely forgotten by the global community, overshadowed by other international conflicts. The situation is characterized by a total collapse of the state, the normalization of mass atrocities and sexual violence, and a shift toward high-tech, indiscriminate warfare. With 14 million people homeless and no diplomatic breakthrough in sight, the outlook for the country remains dire, with the most likely trajectory being a permanent split of the nation and continued civilian suffering.