Could South Sudan have another civil war? - What in the World podcast, BBC World Service

Key Concepts:

• South Sudan's formation and challenges (civil war, famine, malnutrition, displacement)
• Salva Kiir (President, Dinka community) vs. Riek Machar (Vice President, Nuer community)
• 2013 Civil War and 2018 Peace Deal
• Tensions and recent conflict (arrest of Riek Machar, White Army attacks)
• International response and potential for renewed civil war

South Sudan: A Nation in Crisis

South Sudan, the world's youngest country formed in 2011 after seceding from the North due to cultural, religious, and economic disparities, faces ongoing challenges including civil war, famine, and widespread displacement. One in four children experience malnutrition, and over two million people have fled the country.

Key Figures: Salva Kiir and Riek Machar

The political landscape is dominated by two figures: President Salva Kiir, a 73-year-old former military commander from the Dinka community (the largest ethnic group), and Vice President Riek Machar, a 72-year-old rebel leader from the Nuer community (the second largest ethnic group). Machar's position is seen by some as a unifying factor, bringing his community together.

The Civil War and the Fragile Peace Deal

A civil war erupted in 2013, just two years after independence, when President Kiir accused Vice President Machar of plotting a coup and fired the entire cabinet. This conflict was fueled by ethnic tensions between the Dinka and Nuer communities. After five years of fighting, a peace deal was reached in 2018, aiming to hold elections, merge armies, conduct a census, and disarm the population. However, these measures were not fully implemented, and tensions persisted. The conflict resulted in approximately 400,000 deaths and displaced 2.5 million people.

Recent Escalation of Tensions

On March 4th, forces linked to Riek Machar, known as the White Army (a Nuer militia group), attacked a government army base in Nasir County, Upper Nile State. Machar claimed this was retaliation for attacks on his forces in Ulang County. President Kiir responded by arresting an army general and other officials from Machar's Sudan People's Liberation Movement In Opposition (SPLM-IO). Riek Machar was subsequently placed under house arrest on March 28th, with the government accusing him of inciting rebellion and planning to disrupt the upcoming elections in December 2026.

The Situation on the Ground

The situation in South Sudan is described as fragile and volatile, with a traumatized population. Reports indicate the use of barrel bombs and aerial bombardments, with the UN describing the liquid used as highly flammable ethyl acetate. One anonymous source reported that this liquid burned children, women, and men beyond recognition. Men in Northern South Sudan are reportedly selling their cows to buy guns for protection, while women and children are fleeing to Ethiopia.

International Response

International organizations, including the United Nations, the African Union, and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), have condemned the conflict. The African Union Commission sent The Panel Of The Wise to Juba to mediate between Kiir and Machar, but no significant progress has been made.

The Looming Threat of Civil War

Experts warn that South Sudan is at risk of another civil war if dialogue is not prioritized. The SPLM-IO has declared the peace deal dead following Machar's arrest and has threatened war if he is not released. Both sides remain adamant, and the population is pleading for peace.

Conclusion

South Sudan faces a critical juncture. The fragile peace established in 2018 is threatened by renewed conflict between President Kiir and Vice President Machar. The arrest of Machar and the escalating violence raise serious concerns about the country's stability and the potential for a return to civil war. International intervention and meaningful dialogue between the leaders are crucial to prevent further bloodshed and address the deep-seated issues that continue to plague the nation.