Analysis of US Weapons Deal with Ukraine Under Trump
Key Concepts:
- Trump's relationship with Putin
- Relativization of Putin
- Defensive vs. Offensive weaponry (Patriot vs. HIMARS)
- European involvement in funding Ukrainian weapons
- Burden sharing within NATO
- Trump's perception of the US being "ripped off"
- Escalation avoidance
Trump's Evolving Stance on Putin and Ukraine
Professor Fish opens by stating that Trump's political career has shown a great deal of loyalty to Putin and it has puzzled the world. He characterizes Trump's behavior as treating Putin as his "hero" and "sponsor." However, Fish suggests that Trump's perspective might be evolving, indicating a "relativization of Putin." This means Trump may no longer feel dependent on Putin as he did when Putin allegedly helped him get elected in 2016. Fish notes that while this shift is significant, a "special bond" exists between Trump and Putin and he does not believe Trump will take any actions that are really going to put serious pressure on Putin.
The Significance of Weapons Aid to Ukraine
While acknowledging the significance of Trump allowing American weapons to continue flowing to Ukraine, Fish tempers expectations, noting that Trump is giving Putin "an awful lot of slack." He doubts Putin will change course in the war and questions whether Trump will follow through on threats to pressure Putin if he doesn't comply within the specified 50 days, based on his past behavior.
The Nature and Impact of Weapons Supplies
The discussion transitions to the types of weapons being supplied to Ukraine and their potential impact. While some are defensive, like Patriot missiles, others, like HIMARS, have the capability of striking deep into Russia. This capability is particularly notable because the Biden administration was hesitant to allow Ukraine to use US-supplied weapons to strike inside Russia. If the Trump administration allowed American supplied weapons to be used in Russia itself, it would be going beyond the Biden administration and putting pressure on Putin and in aiding the Ukrainians. This potential change marks a significant departure from the Biden administration's policy.
The Financial Aspect: European Funding and Trump's "Ripped Off" Narrative
A key element of Trump's approach is the requirement for Europeans to pay for the weapons being supplied to Ukraine. This marks a shift from the Biden administration, which provided weapons from US stockpiles for free. Professor Fish emphasizes that Trump sees this arrangement as preventing the US from being "ripped off," a recurring theme in his rhetoric regarding international relations, especially with European allies. This financial aspect is "absolutely critical" to President Trump because he can tell himself and his supporters that America is profiting from this.
Willingness of European Countries to Purchase US Arms
Despite potential hesitancy due to the cost of the war effort, Fish believes European countries will "gladly buy these weapons" because they want to provide more support for Ukraine. He highlights the push within NATO for European countries to increase their military spending and develop stronger militaries.
He argues that a stronger European military pillar alongside the US would benefit global security. The current Western Alliance is a "one-legged alliance" when it comes to military capacity, with the US bearing the bulk of the burden. Because the European countries don't have the production abilities to produce the weapons that the Ukrainians need that the Americans do, Professor Fish believes the European countries will willingly buy these weapons from the United States and supply them to Ukraine.
Conclusion
The interview concludes with the understanding that Trump's decision to continue weapons aid to Ukraine, coupled with the requirement for European funding, represents a complex shift in US policy. While the provision of advanced weapons systems like HIMARS could significantly aid Ukraine, the financial arrangement caters to Trump's "America First" approach and his desire to avoid perceived exploitation by allies. The long-term impact of this policy shift remains uncertain, particularly regarding Trump's willingness to pressure Putin and the potential for escalation. The development of a stronger European military capacity is seen as a positive outcome for global security.
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