Trump's approval rating slides: US president 'significantly underwater', expert says • FRANCE 24

Key Concepts

• Polling Numbers: Indicators of public opinion regarding political figures and parties.
• Midterms: Elections held halfway through a president's term.
• Affordability Crisis/Inflation: The rising cost of goods and services, impacting household budgets.
• Tariffs: Taxes imposed on imported goods, which can increase prices for consumers.
• Redistricting/Gerrymandering: The process of redrawing electoral district boundaries, often manipulated to favor a particular party.
• Primary Opponent: A candidate who challenges an incumbent within their own party.
• Obamacare Subsidies: Financial assistance provided to help individuals afford health insurance under the Affordable Care Act.

Analysis of Recent Polling and Election Results

Distinguished Professor of History at Sunni Empire State University and co-author of "Ringing Up the Base: Examining Trump's Use of Stereotypes Through an Interdisciplinary Lens," Ian Rifowitz, discusses the significance of recent polling numbers and election outcomes for Donald Trump and the Republican party.

Key Points:

• Negative Polling: Trump is "significantly underwater" in recent polls, with average numbers showing a significant drop since the previous summer. This is corroborated by multiple polling aggregators.
• Poor Election Performance: Republicans have performed poorly in recent elections, indicating a broader trend of declining support.
  • Indiana State Senate: Republicans rejected Trump's strong efforts to influence redistricting, which would have secured them two additional US House seats. This demonstrates a willingness by some Republicans to defy Trump.
  • Miami Mayor's Election: Republicans lost a mayoral seat they had held for 30 years.
  • Georgia State House Seat: Republicans lost a seat that had been previously gerrymandered to be a safe Republican seat.
  • Tennessee US House Seat: The Republican candidate underperformed by 13 points against a liberal Democrat.
  • New Jersey Governor's Race: Democrats won the governorship.
  • Virginia Elections: Democrats won the governorship and several state house seats, enabling them to gerrymander districts to counter Republican efforts in other states.
• Democratic Gains: Across all state legislative seats up for election, Democrats have flipped 20% of Republican-held seats, while Republicans have flipped zero Democratic seats.

Drivers of Declining Support

Professor Rifowitz identifies the affordability crisis and inflation as primary drivers of Trump's declining support, arguing that it's more significant than issues like immigration.

Key Points:

• Unfulfilled Economic Promises: Trump ran on a platform of bringing down prices and criticized Biden and Harris on inflation. However, inflation has remained at approximately 3%, the same level Trump previously deemed intolerable.
• Economic Discontent: Trump's support on the economy is even lower than his support on immigration, indicating that voters are directly linking the affordability issue to his policies.
• Impact of Tariffs: Tariffs are identified as a specific Trump policy that increases the price of imported goods, leading to higher prices for consumers on both imported and domestic products. This creates a negative perception for Trump as he has not delivered on his economic promises.

Internal Republican Alarms and Defiance

While Trump may be surrounded by those who tell him what he wants to hear, Professor Rifowitz notes that external voices within the Republican party are sounding alarms about his declining popularity and the party's direction.

Key Points:

• Public Criticism: Figures like Marjorie Taylor Greene have spoken about the "dysfunction of the Republican party and leadership," and Nancy Mace has criticized House Republican leadership without directly naming Trump, which is seen as a significant indicator of dissent.
• Retirements: Some Republicans are choosing to retire from the House, signaling a desire to avoid the political fallout and potential primary challenges from Trump.
• Independent Voting: An increasing number of House and Senate votes show Republicans acting independently of Trump. For example, four Republicans voted with Democrats on a healthcare proposal to extend Obamacare subsidies. This suggests a reduced fear of Trump's influence and a willingness to prioritize other political considerations.

Conclusion

The current political landscape indicates a significant decline in Donald Trump's popularity, evidenced by negative polling and a series of electoral defeats for the Republican party. The affordability crisis and inflation are identified as key factors contributing to this decline, as voters perceive a failure to deliver on economic promises. While Trump may be insulated by his inner circle, dissent and independent action within the Republican party suggest a growing awareness of these challenges and a potential shift in political dynamics.