Putin seeking to dissuade Trump from backing Ukraine, says analyst

Key Concepts

• US-Russia Relations: The dynamics and potential for dialogue between the United States and Russia, particularly concerning the conflict in Ukraine.
• Tomahawk Missiles: A specific type of missile that the US is considering supplying to Ukraine, and Russia's stance on its impact.
• US-Ukraine Relations: The upcoming meeting between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and Zelenskyy's objectives.
• European Security: Europe's increasing commitment to its own defense and support for Ukraine, partly due to perceived US unreliability.
• Middle East Peace Deal: The recent peace agreement in Gaza and its potential influence on diplomatic momentum for other conflicts.
• Summit Diplomacy: President Trump's preference for high-profile, visible diplomatic events.
• "Strongman" Persona: Trump's perceived attraction to authoritarian leaders like Putin.
• Ceasefire vs. Peace Deal: The distinction between temporary halts in fighting and comprehensive resolutions to conflicts.

US-Russia Presidential Dialogue

Donald Trump has indicated an expectation to meet with Vladimir Putin within two weeks, following a phone call that lasted over two hours, according to the Kremlin. Trump described the call as "very productive" and stated he raised the issue of supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. The Kremlin, however, reported that Putin informed the US president that these missiles would not alter the battlefield situation. This conversation precedes President Trump's meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House.

Trump's Objectives and Motivations

Lincoln Mitchell, a lecturer at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, suggests that President Trump's decision to engage in another summit with Putin, especially before meeting Zelenskyy, stems from a long-standing importance he places on his relationship with the Russian leader, dating back to 2015-2016. Mitchell argues that Trump is attracted to Putin's "strongman persona," viewing it as a model. Furthermore, Trump's preference for "very visible, very kind of fancy dressed up things" like summits, as opposed to legislative or congressional engagement, is a significant factor in his approach to the presidency.

The Tomahawk Missile Issue

Regarding Zelenskyy's request for Tomahawk missiles, Mitchell asserts that Putin's claim that they would not change the battlefield situation is untrue. He believes these missiles would be "very helpful to Ukraine" and that Putin likely spent a considerable portion of the two-hour call dissuading Trump from supplying them, which could heavily influence Trump's final decision.

Russian Perspective and European Security

Mitchell breaks down the Russian perspective by noting that Russia has observed Europe becoming "even more serious and taking more serious steps" in its defense and support for Ukraine over the past three months. This increased European commitment is partly attributed to a perceived lack of dependability from the United States. From the Kremlin's strategic viewpoint, a united Europe with US backing poses a greater threat than Europe alone. The prospect of the US and Europe "redoubling their effort to support Ukraine" is seen as a significant concern for Putin, as it would greatly benefit Zelenskyy. Mitchell posits that it is easier for Putin to "dissuade Trump" from fully supporting Ukraine than to fracture the growing unity and power of European support, especially since many European nations feel more directly threatened by Russia than the US does.

Diplomatic Momentum and Peace Deals

President Zelenskyy has expressed hope that the momentum from the Middle East peace deal could help end the war in Ukraine. Mitchell acknowledges that President Trump might feel "emboldened" by the Gaza peace deal, despite its potential fragility. He notes that while the return of hostages and a cessation of bombing are positive developments, the war could resume. However, Mitchell distinguishes the situation in Ukraine from the Middle East. He argues that Ukraine's path to ending the war is through "winning," which is not an immediate prospect. Trump cannot unilaterally secure the withdrawal of all Russian troops from Ukrainian territory, which is Ukraine's primary objective.

Mitchell suggests that the Middle East deal, which involved a multinational force from Muslim countries to keep peace and begin rebuilding Gaza, demonstrates "innovative thinking." He believes similar innovative approaches are "absolutely possible" in Ukraine, potentially leading to a temporary ceasefire of "72 hours or two weeks." However, he emphasizes that this is not equivalent to the Gaza situation. In Gaza, the Israeli people's primary demand was the return of hostages, and the Gazan people's demand was to stop Israeli bombing, both of which were addressed. In Ukraine, the situation is more complex, and while any day without fighting is positive, achieving a comprehensive resolution is more challenging.

Zelenskyy's Upcoming Meeting with Trump

Zelenskyy is undoubtedly aware of the potential meeting between Trump and Putin. Mitchell describes the situation as "tough" for Zelenskyy. He is uncertain whether Zelenskyy will achieve his objectives and points out that even a handshake agreement with Trump would require extensive follow-up and approvals, which cannot occur until Trump meets with Putin. Therefore, while Zelenskyy's visit and efforts are positive, Mitchell does not anticipate a quick resolution.

Conclusion

The summary highlights the complex geopolitical landscape surrounding the US-Russia relationship, the conflict in Ukraine, and the potential for diplomatic interventions. President Trump's personal motivations, his preference for high-profile summits, and his engagement with Putin are central to the discussion. The effectiveness of potential US military aid to Ukraine, such as Tomahawk missiles, is debated, as is the broader European response to Russian aggression. The comparison with the recent Middle East peace deal offers insights into potential diplomatic strategies, but also underscores the unique challenges in resolving the Ukrainian conflict. The upcoming meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy is framed as a critical juncture, with significant diplomatic hurdles to overcome before any tangible progress can be made.