Lee Hanson claims growing support as One Nation enters Tasmania races

Key Concepts

• One Nation in Tasmania: The party’s intention to contest Tasmanian local and state elections.
• Tasmanian Political Landscape: Characterized as unique and potentially volatile.
• Liberal Party Positioning: The Tasmanian Liberal government’s centrist approach and perceived moderation.
• Hydro Electricity & Energy Policy: One Nation’s adaptation of its energy policy to suit Tasmania’s existing hydro power infrastructure.
• Party Registration Law: A Tasmanian law requiring extensive personal information for party registration.
• Polling Data: Recent poll results indicating One Nation’s national support.

One Nation’s Tasmanian Election Strategy & Challenges

One Nation has officially announced its intention to participate in upcoming Tasmanian local and state elections. This move follows a recent Demos AU poll indicating the party’s support at a federal level is currently equivalent to that of the coalition, despite acknowledged concerns regarding the poll’s sample size. The Tasmanian political environment is described as particularly challenging, a “circus” as one commentator noted, and not for the faint of heart.

Historical Context & Leadership Concerns

The party’s previous attempt to gain traction at the state level in 2024, under Jackie Lambie, resulted in complete failure. Pauline Hanson’s daughter, Lee Hansen, is now leading the charge, aiming to avoid a similar outcome. Hansen directly addressed concerns about past leadership failures, stating, “Just because one person may have failed as a leader in in leading a party and and holding her members of parliament together does not mean that other political parties will follow in such same suit.” This suggests a deliberate effort to distance the current strategy from previous shortcomings.

Targeting the Liberal Vote & Perceived Moderation

One Nation’s strategy centers on attracting voters disillusioned with the incumbent Tasmanian Liberal government. The party believes the Liberals have become “too moderate,” to the point of being indistinguishable from the Labor party. A key argument is that “You can’t define the difference uh between Labor and Liberal these days,” which is driving support towards One Nation. This perception of the Liberals as “labor light” is seen as a significant opportunity for vote-stealing, particularly in upcoming upper house and local government elections. Premier Jeremy Rockcliffe recently advised the coalition to “govern from the center,” reinforcing the perception of a centrist approach. Rockcliffe emphasized the importance of remaining “as in touch as humanly possible uh with the electorate” and warned that “If you don't govern from the center, the center will leave you.”

Nuanced Energy Policy for Tasmania

While One Nation’s national energy policy prioritizes coal and nuclear energy, Lee Hansen acknowledges the need for a tailored approach in Tasmania. She stated, “in Tasmania, that doesn't work. We have hydro power. We need a nuanced policy.” This demonstrates an understanding of the state’s existing infrastructure and a willingness to adapt the party’s platform accordingly, specifically supporting the state’s “vast hydro electricity grid.” This contrasts with the mainland policy and highlights a pragmatic approach to energy in Tasmania.

Obstacles to Registration & Privacy Concerns

A significant hurdle facing One Nation is a unique Tasmanian law requiring 100 party members to publicly disclose their names and residential addresses during the registration process. Lee Hansen vehemently criticized this law, calling it “ludicrous” and a “breach of privacy laws in every way, shape, or form.” She also pointed out the hypocrisy, adding, “It is very difficult situation to ask others to do what one is not willing or capable of doing themselves.” Despite this challenge, One Nation expresses confidence in meeting the registration requirements by May’s elections.

Polling Data & Potential Impact

The Demos AU poll showing One Nation on par with the coalition nationally is viewed as a positive indicator for Lee Hansen’s campaign. However, the acknowledged concerns about the poll’s sample size temper this optimism. The poll suggests a potential for broader support, but its reliability in predicting Tasmanian election outcomes remains uncertain.

Conclusion

One Nation’s entry into Tasmanian politics presents a challenge to the established Liberal government, capitalizing on perceptions of moderation and a desire for a clearer political alternative. While facing obstacles such as the stringent party registration law and the need to adapt its national policies to the state’s unique context, the party believes it can successfully garner support and contest the upcoming elections. The success of this endeavor will depend on its ability to navigate the complex Tasmanian political landscape and overcome the hurdles to formal registration.