'We're not afraid of Burnham', says Reform's deputy leader

Key Concepts

• Tactical Voting: A strategy where voters support a candidate who is not their first choice to prevent a less desirable candidate from winning.
• Vote Share: The percentage of total votes a party receives in an election.
• Toxic Brand: A political term used to describe a party whose reputation is so damaged that candidates avoid using the party name in campaign materials.
• Net Zero: The policy of achieving a balance between greenhouse gas emissions produced and removed from the atmosphere; Reform UK opposes this in favor of North Sea oil and gas extraction.
• ONS (Office for National Statistics): The UK's executive office that produces official statistics on the economy and society.
• OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility): The UK government's independent fiscal watchdog.

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Analysis of the Makerfield Election Results

Richard Tice, Deputy Leader of Reform UK, addressed the party's performance in the Makerfield by-election. While Reform UK did not win, Tice argued that the result was influenced by "tactical voting" rather than a lack of popularity. He claimed that voters in this historically Labour-held seat prioritized removing the current Prime Minister (Keir Starmer) by voting for Andy Burnham, rather than supporting Reform UK.

• Statistical Discrepancy: The interviewer challenged Tice’s narrative by highlighting that while Reform UK’s vote share increased by 2.7%, Labour’s share increased by 9.6%, representing a 3.4% swing from Reform to Labour.
• The "Toxic Brand" Argument: Tice contended that the Labour brand is so "toxic" that Andy Burnham avoided using the word "Labour" on his campaign literature and posters. He applied similar logic to the Conservative Party, noting that they have lost their deposits in recent by-elections, suggesting they are no longer a viable national party.

Reform UK’s Policy Platform

Tice reiterated the core pillars of Reform UK’s national strategy, which he believes will resonate with voters in future general elections:

• Immigration: A commitment to "stop the boats" and curb illegal immigration.
• Energy: Utilizing North Sea oil and gas reserves to lower energy bills, explicitly rejecting current Net Zero policies.
• Fiscal Responsibility: Cutting "wasteful spending" and reducing "draft regulations." Tice cited ONS data showing May borrowing at £23 billion—25% higher than OBR forecasts—as evidence that public spending is "out of control."

Critique of Andy Burnham

Tice characterized Andy Burnham as the "king of the U-turn," accusing him of being indecisive on critical issues such as:

• Rejoining the European Union.
• Policies regarding gender-neutral bathroom spaces.
• Positions on defense, the economy, and energy. Tice argued that if Burnham were to challenge for the Labour leadership, his lack of clear, decisive stances would make him a vulnerable opponent.

Challenges and Future Outlook

The interview addressed the broader viability of Reform UK in a multi-party system:

• Candidate Controversy: When questioned about the controversial remarks made by Reform UK candidate Robert Kenyon, Tice defended him as a "local plumber" who knows the area well and noted that he had already apologized for his comments.
• National vs. Local Dynamics: Tice maintained that Reform UK’s lead in national polls (by a margin of 6–9%) proves their popularity. He dismissed the interviewer’s suggestion that tactical voting against Reform UK could become a national trend, insisting that tactical voting is highly localized and specific to the context of individual elections.
• Next Steps: The party is shifting its focus toward the upcoming Greater Manchester election, aiming to maintain momentum despite the Makerfield result.

Synthesis

The discussion highlights a fundamental tension between Reform UK’s national polling success and their struggle to convert that support into electoral victories in specific, entrenched constituencies. While Richard Tice attributes these losses to tactical voting against the incumbent government, critics point to a potential ceiling for the party’s growth if voters from other political factions (Greens, Lib Dems, etc.) unite to prevent Reform UK from gaining power. Tice remains confident, framing the party's platform as the only solution to the UK's current fiscal and regulatory challenges.