How the most polarizing politician in Australia is winning | DW News

Key Concepts

• Populist Radical Right: A political ideology combining populism (the "people" vs. the "elite") with nativism (opposition to non-native elements) and authoritarianism.
• Nativism: A policy or ideology that favors the interests of native-born inhabitants over those of immigrants.
• Agenda-Setting Success: The ability of a political figure or party to influence the public discourse and force major parties to address specific, often controversial, topics.
• Political Realignment: A significant shift in the political landscape where traditional party loyalties change, often resulting in the rise of fringe parties to mainstream status.
• Intergenerational Downward Mobility: The economic phenomenon where younger generations face greater financial hardship and lower standards of living compared to their parents.

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1. The Rise of the One Nation Party

Australia is currently experiencing a surge in support for the far-right populist One Nation Party, led by Senator Pauline Hanson. Once dismissed as a fringe movement, the party has recently achieved significant milestones, including winning its first lower house seat in a by-election and leading in national opinion polls. Dr. Benjamin Moffett, a researcher at Monash University, notes that Hanson has had more "agenda-setting success" in Australian politics over the last 30 years than perhaps any other politician.

2. Ideological Framework

According to political scientist Cas Mudde, One Nation fits the definition of a populist radical right party. Its platform is characterized by:

• Populism: Positioning the party as the voice of the "common people" against the political establishment.
• Nativism: Strong opposition to immigration and perceived threats to the "native" way of life.
• Authoritarianism: A focus on strict law-and-order policies. The party’s demographic appeal is primarily among male voters, mirroring trends seen in European parties like the AfD (Germany), the Party for Freedom (Netherlands), and the National Rally (France).

3. Pauline Hanson: Background and Evolution

• Origins: A former fish-and-chip shop owner from Ipswich, Queensland.
• Political Entry: Initially a Liberal Party member, she was expelled for racist remarks regarding Indigenous Australians. She ran as an independent and won, eventually founding One Nation.
• Rhetorical Strategy: Hanson is noted for not being a polished orator. Her appeal lies in her "unfiltered" and stumbling delivery, which resonates with voters who distrust traditional, professional politicians.
• Key Controversies:
  • 1996 Maiden Speech: Famously claimed Australia was in danger of being "swamped by Asians."
  • 2016 Senate Speech: Updated the rhetoric to claim Australia was being "swamped by Muslims."
  • Stunts: Wore a burka in the Senate to campaign for a full face-covering ban.

4. Drivers of the Current Surge

There is no single "smoking gun" for the party's recent success; rather, it is a convergence of several factors:

• Collapse of the Center-Right: The Liberal-National coalition is currently in an existential identity crisis, leaving a political vacuum that One Nation has filled.
• Economic Strain: Global financial pressures, a severe housing crisis, and intergenerational economic inequality have created fertile ground for populist messaging.
• Social Unrest: Events like the Bondi attacks have heightened public anxiety regarding Islam and national security, which the party leverages through "March for Australia" rallies.
• External Support: High-profile backing, such as the donation of a campaign plane by mining magnate Gina Reinhardt, has provided the party with increased logistical reach.

5. Comparative Analysis and Future Outlook

Dr. Moffett highlights that while Australia is following a pattern seen in Europe, the speed of this realignment is unprecedented for an established democracy. Despite a history of internal scandals and organizational instability, the party has become more professionalized.

Key Prediction: Dr. Moffett suggests that if current polling trends hold, One Nation could realistically become the second-biggest party in the next federal election (due in 2028).

Conclusion

The rise of One Nation represents a rapid and significant political realignment in Australia. Driven by a combination of economic anxiety, a fractured center-right opposition, and a potent nativist message, the party has successfully transitioned from a fringe movement to a mainstream political force. The party's future success now depends on its ability to maintain organizational discipline and capitalize on the current climate of social and economic discontent leading up to the 2028 federal election.