Could Thailand undergo another military coup? It’s ‘not off the table’, says professor

Key Concepts:

• Precarious political limbo, Constitutional Court ruling, Cabinet reshuffle, Leaked audio clip, Public sentiment, Snap election, Nomination for premiership, Military intervention, Judicial intervention, Shinawatra family political dominance, Thai-Cambodian relations, International Court of Justice (ICJ), ASEAN.

1. Shinawatra's Political Future:

• Current Status: Suspended from duty as Prime Minister but remains in cabinet as Culture Minister due to a pre-suspension cabinet reshuffle.
• Constitutional Court: Has 15 days to present a defense. The Constitutional Court will then rule on ejection or exoneration.
• Omen: The court's initial votes (9-0 to accept the case, 7-2 to suspend) suggest a low probability of exoneration.
• Challenges: Even if reinstated, governing will be difficult due to a slim majority and weakened position. The leaked audio clip with Hun Sen is deeply damaging and has negatively impacted public sentiment.
• Quote: "It means a precarious limbo." - Titan Pong Sudar

2. Potential Political Scenarios:

• Options: Court removal, early elections (snap election), or internal party reshuffles.
• Snap Election: Considered the "optimal" way out of the crisis. Acting Prime Minister Pumchami could call for this after being sworn in.
• Parliamentary Vote: If Shinawatra is ejected, parliament will reconvene to choose a new prime minister.
• Potential Candidates: Candidates from the Puea Thai party, including Srettha Thavisin (though previously ejected, he is still eligible for renomination), Cholnan Srikaew, and Chaikasem Nitisiri.
• Constitutional Constraints: The 2017 constitution requires parties to nominate up to three candidates for the premiership before the election.
• Military Intervention: If the National Assembly is dissolved, a new election will occur. Otherwise, an appointed assembly could form, potentially requiring military intervention.

3. Potential Candidates for Prime Minister:

• Puea Thai Party: Srettha Thavisin (eligible despite prior ejection), Cholnan Srikaew (not as strong in health), and Chaikasem Nitisiri.
• Constitutional Requirement: Parties nominate up to three candidates before the election.

4. Impact on Shinawatra Political Dominance:

• Historical Context: Cites a pattern of judicial or military intervention against the Shinawatra family, including Thaksin Shinawatra (legal troubles, lese-majeste), Somchai Wongsawat (ousted), and Yingluck Shinawatra (deposed after protests and judicial intervention).
• Recent Setbacks: The Puea Thai party lost the 2023 election and "betrayed the mandate" by splitting from the Move Forward party.
• Damaging Factors: The leaked audio tape is particularly damaging to the family and Paetongtarn Shinawatra.
• Election Prospects: The party is reluctant to face new polls, as they are unlikely to perform as well as in 2023.

5. Likelihood of Military Intervention:

• Reluctance: The military is likely reluctant to intervene due to the negative economic and international consequences of the 2014 coup.
• Conditions for Intervention: If Thailand becomes "intractable, ungovernable," with "policy inertia," calls for military intervention to break the impasse may arise.
• Option Remains: Military intervention is not entirely off the table, depending on the duration and severity of the crisis.

6. Impact on International Relations (Thai-Cambodian Relations & ASEAN):

• Deterioration: Thai-Cambodian relations have reached a "new low."
• ICJ Claims: Cambodia has taken Thailand to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on four border claims.
• ASEAN Headache: This is a significant problem for ASEAN, especially with Malaysia as chair.
• Malaysian Mediation Impaired: PM Anwar Ibrahim's appointment of Thaksin Shinawatra as advisor on Myanmar makes it difficult for Malaysia to mediate impartially.
• Long-Term Impact: The sour relationship between Thailand and Cambodia will last for two to three years during the ICJ adjudication, negatively impacting both countries and ASEAN.

7. Conclusion:

The political crisis in Thailand presents a complex and uncertain future. Shinawatra's political career is in jeopardy, with potential outcomes ranging from exoneration to ejection and new elections. The possibility of military intervention, while undesirable, remains a concern. The crisis has also strained Thai-Cambodian relations and poses challenges for ASEAN's regional stability. The leaked audio clip and the betrayal of the Move Forward party alliance have significantly weakened the Shinawatra family's political standing.