Myanmar’s military says the third and final round of voting will be held on 25 January 2026

Key Concepts

• Staggered Elections: The elections are being held in three phases due to ongoing instability and conflict.
• Legitimacy Concerns: The elections are widely viewed as a sham attempt by the military junta to solidify power.
• Five-Point Consensus: ASEAN’s proposed framework for resolving the Myanmar crisis, largely ignored by the junta.
• USDP: Union Solidarity Development Party, the military-backed political party expected to benefit from the electoral changes.
• Boycott & Non-Complicity: Calls for refusing to participate in or legitimize the elections.

Myanmar Elections: A Detailed Overview

The Myanmar military has announced the final phase of its elections will be held on January 25th, marking a vote five years after the 2021 coup which ousted the last elected government and initiated a civil war. The elections are being conducted in three phases – December 28th, January 11th, and January 25th – a schedule dictated by the country’s ongoing instability and widespread conflict.

Electoral Landscape & Restrictions

Out of Myanmar’s 330 townships, the military deems only 274 safe enough to hold elections. Phase one will encompass 102 townships, phase two 100, and the remaining 72 in phase three. While excluding areas from elections due to fighting isn’t unprecedented in Myanmar’s history, the scale of exclusion – a significant number of townships – and the phased rollout are novel.

The number of participating political parties has drastically decreased. In 2020, nearly 100 parties were registered; this election features approximately 60, with only six contesting nationwide. The remaining parties will focus on specific states or regions. This reduction is directly linked to the military’s rewriting of electoral laws, designed to weaken opposition parties. New regulations require parties to demonstrate a minimum number of members, officers, and funds across the entire country to qualify for national-level participation.

Concerns Regarding Fairness & Legitimacy

Critics argue that the voting system itself has been altered to favor the military-backed Union Solidarity Development Party (USDP). Beyond concerns about fairness, the core issue revolves around the legitimacy of the elections. As stated by a commentator, “Even if only one person were to cast a ballot, the junta would shamelessly use it as a claim to legitimacy.” This sentiment fuels calls not just for boycotts, but for “refus[ing] complicity in the military’s attempt to entrench its power through the stage…performance.”

International Response & Observation

ASEAN has urged the military to ensure the elections are free, fair, and inclusive. However, due to concerns about legitimizing the vote, ASEAN will not be sending an official observer mission. Individual member states may send observers bilaterally. Countries like China, India, and Russia have announced plans to send observers, while Cambodia and Thailand have expressed openness to doing so. The international community generally lacks confidence in the election’s integrity, emphasizing the importance of on-the-ground observation to assess the situation and Myanmar’s international standing.

ASEAN’s Position & the Five-Point Consensus

ASEAN continues to prioritize its Five-Point Consensus – a framework agreed upon with Myanmar’s Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing – as the primary path to resolving the crisis. However, the junta has largely disregarded the consensus, maintaining that holding elections is the solution. This stance is not shared by many outside of Myanmar, with some arguing that “Elections might be part of the problem instead of being part of the solution.”

Expected Outcome & Future Implications

Despite widespread criticism, the junta is determined to proceed with the elections and is widely expected to win. The current setup – the limited number of parties, the prevalence of pro-regime parties, and the absence of significant opposition – strongly suggests a favorable outcome for the military.

Despite the anticipated outcome, ASEAN has affirmed that Myanmar’s military leaders will remain barred from ASEAN summits and foreign ministers meetings, and Myanmar will not assume the ASEAN chairmanship until the bloc decides otherwise. This signifies continued international pressure and a lack of recognition of the junta’s legitimacy.