Is Thailand heading for another military coup?

Key Concepts:

• Military Coups in Thailand
• Thai Parliamentary Democracy & Constitutional Monarchy
• Thaksin Shinawatra & Pheu Thai Party
• Conservative Royalist Pro-Military Establishment
• Move Forward Party & Dissolution
• Lese Majesty Laws
• Grand Compromise
• Paetongtarn Shinawatra
• Thai-Cambodia Border Dispute
• Political Instability & Risk of Coup

1. Historical Context and Political Landscape

• Thailand has a history of military coups, with about a dozen in less than a century.
• The political landscape is characterized by a struggle between the conservative royalist pro-military establishment and the populist movement founded by Thaksin Shinawatra (Pheu Thai party).
• Thaksin was ousted in 2006, and his sister Yingluck Shinawatra was ousted in 2014.
• The 2023 election saw the defeat of military-aligned parties and the rise of the progressive Move Forward party, followed by Pheu Thai forming a coalition with conservative parties.

2. The "Grand Compromise" and its Aftermath

• Pheu Thai formed a government by dropping Move Forward and teaming up with military-aligned parties, seen as a "grand compromise."
• Thaksin Shinawatra returned from exile the same day Srettha Thavisin (Pheu Thai) became prime minister.
• Move Forward was dissolved in August 2024 by the constitutional court for attempting to amend lese majesty laws.
• Srettha Thavisin was removed from office for an ethical violation and replaced by Paetongtarn Shinawatra.

3. Current Political Turmoil

• The "grand compromise" is showing signs of strain.
• Thaksin was indicted under lese majesty laws for past comments.
• Pheu Thai's attempt to pass an anti-coup law failed due to conservative backlash.
• A border dispute with Cambodia flared up, resulting in a Cambodian soldier's death.

4. The Leaked Phone Call and its Consequences

• A leaked phone call between Paetongtarn and Cambodia's Hun Sen sparked public anger.
• Paetongtarn was perceived as deferential to Hun Sen and disparaging of a Thai lieutenant general.
• The Bhumjaithai Party withdrew from the coalition.
• Other parties are considering their positions, with some pushing for Paetongtarn's resignation.
• Paetongtarn apologized and met with military officials to mend ties.

5. Potential Scenarios for Paetongtarn's Removal

• Coalition parties may force her to resign or withdraw support.
• Anti-Shinawatra protests could increase pressure.
• Legal petitions against her for alleged misconduct could lead to her removal.

6. Risk of a Military Coup

• The defense minister warned of a coup risk even before the phone call drama.
• Factors contributing to coup risk: a Shinawatra in office, nationalist sentiment over the border dispute, and political volatility.
• The military has dismissed coup rumors and affirmed its commitment to democracy.
• Analysts believe a coup is unlikely due to viable routes to remove the prime minister through political pressure and the court system.

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8. Conclusion

Thailand's political landscape remains volatile, with the current government facing multiple challenges. While the risk of a military coup is present, analysts believe it is unlikely due to alternative mechanisms for political change. The future of Paetongtarn Shinawatra's premiership is uncertain, with potential for removal through political pressure or legal action.