Commodities for Thursday, Jan. 29, 2026

Key Concepts

• Geopolitical Risk & Commodities: Rising tensions between the US and Iran are significantly impacting oil and gold prices.
• Oil Market Dynamics: Supply concerns related to potential disruptions in Iranian oil production are driving up prices, alongside a weakening US dollar.
• Gold Market Volatility: Gold reached record highs but experienced a correction, fueled by geopolitical tensions, Fed independence concerns, and speculative trading.
• Copper Market Surge & Correction: A massive wave of Chinese speculation caused a record spike in copper prices, followed by a sharp pullback.
• Silver Market Extremes: Silver experienced a dramatic surge to levels not seen since 1980, raising concerns about a potential correction.
• AI & Resource Demand: Increased demand for materials like copper and silver driven by the growth of the AI industry.
• Company Performance (OceanaGold): Strong performance driven by production at the Haile Gold Mine and exploration success, leading to increased shareholder returns.

Commodity Market Volatility & Geopolitical Influences

Today’s commodity markets are experiencing significant volatility, primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding potential US actions against Iran. Oil prices surged, briefly reaching a five-month high, with Brent futures topping $70 and WTI trading above $65. This increase is attributed to fears of disrupted global oil supplies should the US launch attacks on Iran, a major crude producer within OPEC. Reuters reports President Trump is considering targeted attacks on Iranian security forces and leaders to inspire protests, though Israeli and Arab nations doubt airpower alone could topple the regime. Contributing to the oil price increase is the weakness of the US dollar, currently trading at its lowest level since early 2022, partly due to unpredictability in Washington and questions about the Federal Reserve’s independence. A weaker dollar generally boosts commodity prices as they are globally denominated in US currency.

Metals Market Fluctuations

The metals market also witnessed substantial swings. Gold initially soared to near record highs, climbing over 20% in January, driven by geopolitical tensions and concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence. However, it subsequently pulled back, described by Phil Streible of Blue Line Futures as “peak euphoria.” Copper experienced an even more dramatic move, with a massive wave of buying from Chinese speculators pushing prices above $14,500 US a tonne in London – a new record high – before a sharp correction. Mark Thompson of Trafigura Group stated, “You wait a lifetime for markets like this,” suggesting the market is one supply disruption away from $20,000 US a tonne for copper. Silver also saw significant volatility, reaching its highest level versus crude oil and copper, prompting concerns about a potential 50% correction, as noted by Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence.

Specific Market Movements & Data

• Oil: Brent futures topped $70, WTI traded above $65. Brent was on track to hit its highest since July 2023. WTI reached its highest since September 26, 2023.
• Gold: Climbed over 20% in January, then pulled back but remains near record highs.
• Copper: Spiked above $14,500 US a tonne in London, hitting a new record high before a sharp pullback.
• Silver: Reached its highest ever versus crude oil and copper, nearing levels not seen since 1980.
• US Dollar: Trading at its weakest since early 2022.
• Silver ETFs: Experiencing outflows this year, indicating supply coming onto the market. Approximately 840,000,000oz of silver are currently held in Silver ETFs, representing a year’s worth of annual supply.

Expert Perspectives & Analysis

Mike McGlone (Bloomberg Intelligence): Believes the metals market resembles the crypto market’s peak last year, suggesting a potential correction. He highlights the importance of supply coming from ETFs, noting that approximately 840 million ounces of silver are held in ETFs, representing a year’s worth of annual supply. He suggests silver could easily correct 50% and still be above previous highs.

Reed Aronson (Kepler): Notes that the oil market reversed its multi-month downtrend in January due to concerns about Iranian strikes. He anticipates a fundamental oversupply of oil will re-emerge in the coming months, forecasting Brent averaging around $62 by April.

Gerard Bond (OceanaGold CEO): Highlights the strong performance of the Haile Gold Mine in South Carolina, which accounts for half of the company’s net asset value. He anticipates all-in sustaining costs at Haile to decrease due to improved access to the open pit and reduced waste removal. He emphasizes OceanaGold’s focus on shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks, alongside continued investment in exploration.

Company News & Developments

• First Quantum Minerals: Looking to sell its copper and zinc mine in Turkey, valued at approximately $400 million.
• Caterpillar: Reported profit and revenue exceeding estimates, driven by sales of power generation equipment for AI data centers. However, profit from traditional heavy machinery sales declined.
• OceanaGold: Shares soared threefold last year. The company is focused on growth at the Haile Gold Mine in South Carolina and the Bonza project in New Zealand. They are prioritizing shareholder returns and continued exploration.
• Canadian Miners: Ten individuals were taken from a site in Mexico currently under investigation, leading to temporary suspension of operations.

Logical Connections & Synthesis

The report demonstrates a clear connection between geopolitical events and commodity market fluctuations. Rising tensions with Iran are directly impacting oil prices, while broader geopolitical uncertainty is driving investment in safe-haven assets like gold. The surge in copper prices, while initially driven by Chinese speculation, highlights the growing demand for resources needed for emerging technologies like AI. The analysis of individual companies, like OceanaGold, provides a micro-level perspective on how these broader market trends are impacting specific players in the industry. The experts interviewed consistently emphasize the importance of understanding both fundamental supply and demand dynamics and the influence of speculative trading and geopolitical risk.

The overall takeaway is that commodity markets are currently highly sensitive to geopolitical events and speculative activity. While fundamental factors remain important, they are often overshadowed by short-term market sentiment and external shocks. Investors should exercise caution and be prepared for continued volatility. The potential for significant price swings, particularly in metals like silver, suggests a need for a nimble and risk-aware investment strategy.