Morning Markets for Thursday, Jan. 29, 2026

Key Concepts

• Trade Deficit: The amount by which a country’s imports exceed its exports.
• Capital Spending (CapEx): Funds used by a company to acquire, upgrade, and maintain physical assets such as property, plants, buildings, and equipment.
• EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization – a measure of a company’s operating performance.
• Parabolic Move (in markets): A rapid and often unsustainable increase in price.
• CapEx (Capital Expenditure): Funds used by a company to acquire, upgrade, and maintain physical assets.
• ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds): Investment funds traded on stock exchanges, much like stocks.

Market Summary – Morning Markets (BNN Bloomberg)

I. Economic Data & Trade

Canada’s trade deficit widened to $2.2 billion in November, significantly exceeding expectations. This represents a substantial increase from the $395 million deficit recorded in October. Exports fell by 2.8% overall, with the largest declines occurring in metal and non-metallic mineral products, as well as motor vehicles and parts. Specifically, gold shipments to the UK, US, and Hong Kong experienced significant reductions. Imports decreased by only 0.1% to $66.1 billion. A notable trend is the increasing import volume from countries outside the US, reaching a record high, suggesting a diversification of trade partners.

II. Company Performance – Negative Impacts

• Celestica: Shares plummeted 15% due to increased capital spending (now projected at $1 billion for the year) and a disappointing full-year outlook. Despite beating Q4 revenue and profit expectations (driven by demand for AI data centres), the increased investment weighed on investor sentiment.
• Tesla: Experienced a 2.3% share price decline following a 61% drop in annual profit and a revenue slip compared to the previous year. The company is facing increased competition and has resorted to price cuts to boost sales, while focusing on AI and robotaxi development.

III. Company Performance – Positive Impacts

• Caterpillar: Shares rose 0.67% after reporting profit and revenue exceeding estimates. This positive performance was driven by strong sales of power generation equipment to AI data centres. Caterpillar’s power and energy segment is now its largest and fastest-growing unit, offsetting declines in its traditional heavy-duty machinery business.
• Rogers Communications: Reported strong Q4 results, exceeding analyst expectations, largely attributed to the success of the Toronto Blue Jays’ playoff run and increased investment in sports media (doubling their stake in Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment). Revenue climbed by 12.6% to $1.2 billion.

IV. Market Overview – Broad Sell-Off

The markets experienced a significant downturn. The TSX was down 1.38%, the S&P 500 fell almost 1.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.7%, and the NASDAQ Composite declined by 2.53%. This sell-off was primarily driven by a tech stock sell-off following earnings reports.

V. Expert Commentary – Jerome Haas (Lightwater Partners)

Jerome Haas characterized the market day as “ugly,” attributing the decline primarily to a tech stock sell-off following a period of strong momentum in the AI theme. He cautioned that sustained upward movement is unsustainable. Haas expressed concern about the TSX’s 4.6% year-to-date gain, questioning its justification given economic and political headwinds. He highlighted the unusual surge in gold prices (reaching $5,500) as a sign of political and economic uncertainty, and noted concerns about potential outflows from equities. He favors Canadian mid-cap stocks, avoiding banks and resources (except oil and gas). He specifically highlighted Fairfax Financial as undervalued, trading at 1.2 times book value compared to peers like Intact Financial (2.2 times book value), despite a 40-year track record of 19% annual total returns. He also pointed to MainStreet Equity, a player in affordable housing, as an attractive long-term investment, despite recent underperformance.

VI. Expert Commentary – Ari Rosa (Citi)

Ari Rosa viewed Canadian Pacific Kansas City’s (CPKC) recent earnings as “pretty decent” despite a challenging macro environment. He emphasized CPKC’s leadership in volume and earnings growth, and its solid outlook. He noted the company’s strong cost control, good service, and safety metrics, crediting CEO Keith Creel’s leadership. He anticipates a potential recovery in the second half of the year, contingent on macro improvements and tariff resolution. He believes the rail sector is reasonably valued and offers growth potential.

VII. Expert Commentary – Lyle Stein (Forbes Global Wealth Management)

Lyle Stein discussed the current market environment, noting the impact of central bank policies and geopolitical concerns on commodity prices. He described gold’s price movement as “parabolic” and outlined a strategy of shifting portfolio weightings from gold stocks to physical gold as a hedge. He highlighted the importance of understanding the drivers behind the copper rally, attributing it to demand from AI and electrification, and the limited mining capacity to meet that demand. He emphasized the need for a “stock picker’s market” and the importance of evaluating company-specific factors.

VIII. Expert Commentary – Stephanie Hughes (Bloomberg News)

Stephanie Hughes reported on Rogers Communications’ strong Q4 results, driven by the success of the Toronto Blue Jays. She noted the company’s plans to further invest in sports media by acquiring the remaining stake in MLS. She also highlighted challenges in the wireless segment due to increased competition and a slowing population growth.

IX. Precious Metals – Gold & Silver Surge

Gold prices reached nearly $5,600 per ounce, and silver contracts hit record highs, driven by geopolitical concerns, inflation fears, and central bank buying. Silver’s surge is also linked to its industrial applications, particularly in solar panels. Pan American Silver was highlighted as a potentially attractive investment due to its diversified portfolio and potential for capital return.

X. Synthesis/Conclusion

The market is currently experiencing volatility driven by a combination of economic data, company earnings, and geopolitical factors. While some companies (Caterpillar, Rogers Communications) are performing well, others (Celestica, Tesla) are facing challenges. Commodity prices, particularly gold and silver, are surging, prompting investors to re-evaluate their portfolio allocations. Experts suggest a cautious approach, emphasizing the importance of stock picking, diversification, and a long-term investment horizon. The overall sentiment is one of uncertainty, with a recognition that the recent market rally may be unsustainable.