Commodities for Thursday, Jan. 22, 2026

Key Concepts

• WTI (West Texas Intermediate): A benchmark crude oil grade used in pricing.
• IEA (International Energy Agency): An autonomous intergovernmental organization that provides energy analysis and recommendations.
• Natural Gas Hedging: Strategies used by companies to reduce the risk of price fluctuations in natural gas.
• Porphyry Copper Deposits: Large, low-grade copper deposits formed from hydrothermal activity, often economically viable due to their size.
• In-Situ Value: The estimated value of a mineral deposit while still in the ground.
• MOU (Memorandum of Understanding): A non-binding agreement outlining principles for future cooperation.
• Epithermal Porphyry: A type of geological formation associated with copper deposits, representing a transition zone between shallower epithermal and deeper porphyry systems.
• Breccia: A rock composed of broken fragments of minerals or rock cemented together. High-grade breccias are valuable in copper mining.
• MCilvenna Bay: A large copper deposit in Saskatchewan, Canada, currently under development by Foran Mining.

Energy Complex & Oil Market

Ukrainian President Zelensky is pursuing trilateral meetings with the US and China, potentially paving the way for a resolution in Ukraine and increased Russian oil supply. Oil prices have slipped, reflecting this possibility. Bloomberg reports ample US fuel supplies, evidenced by a climb in fuel stocks, though this may be temporary due to an impending storm threatening fuel distribution in Canada and the US. Despite previous pessimism, the IEA has slightly increased its oil demand growth estimate. WTI has experienced a challenging three-year period.

Natural Gas Market Surge

A significant storm and predicted frigid weather across the US are driving a surge in natural gas prices. Increased demand for heating and potential production shut-ins are key factors. This rally occurs after hedge funds had adopted a bearish stance on natural gas, leaving the market vulnerable to upward movement. Many US natural gas companies haven’t locked in prices through hedging, positioning them to benefit from the price increase.

Metals Market – Gold & Copper

Gold has reached a new record high, fueled by global instability concerns, with analysts suggesting a potential breach of the $5000 mark. Problems at mines are contributing to the price increase. Freeport-McMoRan’s stock declined initially due to a fatal mudslide at its Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, but is recovering as the company outlines a phased restart plan, aiming for 85% output by the second half of the year, with full restoration expected by 2027. Capstone Copper is facing a three-week strike in Northern Chile, tightening the global copper market. Lundin Mining’s forecast for gold and copper production has been lowered due to reduced underground mining rates at its Candelaria site in Chile, though analysts maintain a modestly improved multi-year outlook.

Agricultural Commodities

Agricultural commodities show a mixed performance, with wheat and corn showing slight increases while soybeans remain flat.

Nuclear Fusion – General Fusion

Vancouver-based General Fusion is set to go public through a merger with a NASDAQ-listed shell company, valued at approximately $1 billion USD. This will be one of the first publicly traded nuclear fusion technology companies (ticker: GEZ).

Expert Insights – Bob McNally (Rapidan Energy Group)

Bob McNally highlighted a developing surplus in the crude oil market over the past year, but noted that geopolitical risks consistently cause price spikes. He believes oil prices will likely continue to grind lower barring major disruptions. He emphasized that even brief threats to oil supply, like those from Iran, can cause significant price volatility. McNally pointed out that traders have become accustomed to downplaying geopolitical risks, but warned that Iran poses a material threat to both crude and LNG supplies. He estimated a 20% chance of a sustained disruption, but warned that if it occurs, it would be more severe than anticipated. He also discussed the potential for increased oil supply from Venezuela, noting the administration’s engagement with the new leadership and the movement of stored oil. He noted President Trump congratulated the Houthi rebels on their resilience during a recent conflict.

Canada – China Trade Relations

China is poised to drop tariffs on Canadian canola, a significant export for Canada. Canada will allow a limited number of Chinese-made electric vehicles (3% of the market). Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe discussed the positive impact on canola farmers, estimating potential losses have been avoided and prices will likely increase. He acknowledged the risk of over-reliance on the US and China as export markets and the potential for those countries to use tariffs as political leverage. He dismissed concerns about Chinese electric vehicles being "spy cars" and emphasized the benefits of restoring trade with China, including potential expansion into energy and forestry exports. He also addressed concerns about Ontario’s opposition to Chinese EV imports, suggesting a need for further discussion between provinces and the federal government.

Copper Market Analysis – Cole McGill (Stifel Financial)

Cole McGill presented a bullish outlook on copper, citing a mismatch between supply and demand driven by the growth of AI, energy intensity, and industrialization. He highlighted two stock ideas:

• ATX Resources: ATX is exploring a large copper porphyry deposit in Chile (Valeriano) with significant upside potential. The current valuation is below the average acquisition price for similar deposits. The discovery of high-grade breccias further enhances its value.
• Foran Mining: Foran is ramping up production at its McIlvenna Bay deposit in Saskatchewan. The timing of the mine’s opening coincides with a favorable copper price environment. The company is expected to benefit from the typical outperformance of companies bringing new mines online. The Tesla Zone within McIlvenna Bay adds further value.

Logical Connections

The report flows logically from a broad overview of the energy complex to specific commodity analyses (metals, agriculture). The inclusion of expert interviews (McNally, Moe, McGill) provides deeper insights and context. The discussion of General Fusion introduces a forward-looking element, highlighting innovation in the energy sector. The Canadian trade discussion connects directly to the agricultural commodities section.

Conclusion

The commodities market is currently characterized by volatility and complex dynamics. Geopolitical factors, weather patterns, and evolving demand trends are all influencing prices. While oil supply is increasing, risks remain, particularly in the Middle East. Natural gas is experiencing a surge due to weather-related demand. Gold continues to benefit from safe-haven demand, while copper is poised for a bull run due to supply constraints and growing industrial demand. Canada is working to diversify its trade relationships, particularly with China, to mitigate risks and capitalize on new opportunities. Innovation in energy, such as nuclear fusion, offers long-term potential. Investors should carefully consider these factors and conduct thorough due diligence before making investment decisions.