Can Europe afford to push back against Erdogan? | Berlin Briefing Podcast

Key Concepts:

• Mutual interest in defense industry collaboration, investment, and trade between Europe and Turkey.
• Turkey's economic vulnerability due to investor concerns about autocracy.
• The importance of European dignity and avoiding a political endorsement of autocratic policies.
• The potential for a "victor orand" of Europe if autocratic policies are reinforced.

Economic and Strategic Interdependence

The speaker highlights the existing mutual interest between Europe and Turkey in several key areas. These include:

• Defense Industry Collaboration: The potential for European and Turkish defense industries to join forces.
• Investment and Trade: The importance of investment and trade relations between the two regions.

Turkey's Economic Vulnerability

The speaker emphasizes Turkey's economic vulnerability, citing a specific example:

• $30 Billion Loss: Turkey has lost $30 billion due to investors' concerns about the country's slide towards autocracy. This figure underscores the financial risks associated with perceived autocratic tendencies.
• Investor Concerns: Investors are worried about the rise of autocracy in Turkey, leading to capital flight and economic instability.

The Dilemma of Dignity vs. Cooperation

The core argument revolves around the dilemma faced by European countries: balancing the need for cooperation with Turkey against the moral imperative of upholding democratic values.

• Dignity for European Countries: The speaker stresses the importance of maintaining dignity and avoiding any action that could be interpreted as endorsing autocratic policies.
• Potential for Cooperation without Political Blessing: The speaker suggests exploring avenues for continued cooperation on a technical level (e.g., defense industry, troop deployment) without providing a formal political endorsement of Turkey's autocratic policies from Western Europe (EU, UK, Norway, Canada).

The Risk of Reinforcing Autocracy

The speaker warns of the dangers of implicitly or explicitly supporting autocratic policies:

• "Killer for Europe": Providing a political blessing to autocratic policies would be a "killer for Europe," not just a moral defeat.
• Reinforcing the "Victor Orand" of Europe: Such a move would embolden existing autocratic tendencies within Europe, represented by the "victor orand," and encourage other political parties with similar leanings.

Conclusion

The speaker argues that while cooperation with Turkey may be strategically and economically beneficial, it should not come at the cost of compromising European values and potentially reinforcing autocratic tendencies both within Turkey and Europe. The speaker suggests exploring avenues for technical cooperation while withholding political endorsement of autocratic policies to avoid a "moral defeat" and prevent the rise of a "victor orand" within Europe.