How united is Europe against Russia’s provocations? | Berlin Briefing Podcast

Key Concepts

• European Defense Readiness: The ongoing efforts and challenges faced by the European Union in strengthening its defense capabilities to counter potential Russian aggression.
• Russian Aggression: The perceived threat of military action by Russia against European nations, with intelligence suggesting a potential test of NATO's Article 5 within the next 2-5 years.
• Delivery Stage: The current phase of EU defense initiatives, focusing on contracts, production, and procurement, following an initial phase of capability development.
• Article 5 of NATO: The collective defense clause of the North Atlantic Treaty, which states that an attack against one member is an attack against all.
• Safe Loans: A financial mechanism being developed by the EU to facilitate defense investments by member states, expected to be available from early next year.
• European Defence Agency (EDA): An EU agency aimed at helping industries and member states develop defense capabilities.
• Change of Mindset: A shift in attitude within European nations, particularly on the eastern flank, recognizing the reality of the Russian threat and increasing defense spending.
• Rheinmetall: A major German defense company that has significantly ramped up its production capacity.
• "Gold Rush" in Defense Industry: The current perception among investors that the defense sector presents a lucrative opportunity due to increased demand.
• Drones as Provocations: The use of drones by Russia for incursions into European airspace, testing NATO's unity and prompting a need for enhanced detection and defense capabilities.
• Fragmentation of European Defense Industry: The issue of a highly fragmented defense industry in Europe, with numerous different types of tanks and vehicles, hindering standardization and competitiveness.
• European Space Programs: EU initiatives in space, such as Galileo (navigation) and Copernicus (Earth observation), highlighting European strengths in technological advancement.
• G-Space and Secure Satellite Communication: Future EU projects aimed at enhancing secure satellite communication and intelligence gathering from space.
• Rational Optimism: A cautious but hopeful outlook regarding Europe's ability to enhance its defense capabilities, supported by evidence of increased production and investment.

European Defense Readiness and the Russian Threat

The discussion at the Berlin Global Dialogue centers on the European Union's preparedness for potential Russian aggression. Commissioner for Defense and Space, Andrius Kubilius, emphasizes that defense is a priority for the European Commission and most member states. The current focus has shifted from creating opportunities for capability development to the "delivery stage," involving contracts, production, and procurement. The primary goal is to enhance defense capabilities to a level that can deter Russian aggression. Intelligence services suggest that Russia could be ready to test NATO's Article 5 within the next two to five years, necessitating clear and decisive action from the EU.

Urgency and Political Will

Alexandra von Nahmen, Director for Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe at Deutsche Welle, notes a significant "change of mindset" in Europe, particularly in countries on the eastern flank like the Baltic states, Germany, and Poland. These nations recognize the real Russian threat and are increasing defense investments. However, the implementation of EU initiatives still depends on the political will of individual member states. The lengthy process for securing substantial contracts, exemplified by the six-month delay for Rheinmetall to receive its first significant order from the German government after the war in Ukraine began, highlights this challenge. Despite this, there's a sense of urgency, with investors viewing the defense market as a "gold rush" opportunity, understanding the importance of deterring Russia and ramping up weapons production.

Russian Provocations and Testing NATO

Recent incursions of Russian jets and drones into Polish and Danish airspace are seen as Russia testing NATO's principles and unity. While the exact timeline for potential Russian aggression remains uncertain – it could happen "tomorrow" or in "ten years" – there is a growing understanding across Europe, even among countries further from the eastern flank, that readiness is crucial. The EU has historically shown swift action during crises, such as the pandemic and the banking crisis, and there's a question of whether this sense of urgency can translate into faster action and a willingness to prioritize collective European interests over purely national ones, particularly in developing a unified European defense industry.

The Shift in European Attitudes and EU Initiatives

Commissioner Kubilius highlights a "radical change" in the psychological attitude towards defense over the past year. He recalls skepticism about the need for a dedicated defense commissioner, contrasting it with the current, more serious approach. The German intelligence service's prediction about Russia's readiness within 3-5 years, and the German Chancellor's statement about being "neither at peace nor at war," signify a shift in the political discourse.

Financial Mechanisms and Member State Readiness

The EU has rapidly developed initiatives like "safe loans," which are expected to be available early next year, to support defense investments. Public opinion polls indicate a strong public demand for increased attention to defense and security. Positively, 19 countries have signed up for safe loans, exceeding initial expectations. Notably, countries like Italy and France are among those requesting the largest amounts, demonstrating a widespread willingness to invest in defense beyond just the frontline states. The commissioner stresses that the threat of Russian provocations, such as drone attacks, is not limited to frontier countries, as drones can be launched from ships near European coasts, making "nobody safe."

Evolving Threats and Capability Gaps

There's a concern that current capability development might not fully account for all possible scenarios. While the focus is often on a traditional war with tanks and artillery, the commissioner suggests Russia may escalate current provocations. The recent drone incursions highlight a significant deficit in the ability to detect and destroy drones cost-effectively. Traditional air defense radars are not effective against small, low-flying drones, necessitating the development of specialized radars or acoustic sensors. Latvia, having encountered its first Russian drone last year, is advanced in developing acoustic sensor systems. Furthermore, a robust system for managing information data from drone detection is crucial, with lessons to be learned from Ukraine. The need for cost-effective drone interception capabilities, such as drone interceptors or electronic warfare, is also emphasized.

Germany's Role and the Fragmentation of the Defense Industry

Germany is recognized for setting an "inspirational example" in taking responsibility for its own defense. However, the commissioner suggests Germany could also show leadership in addressing "European problems," particularly the fragmentation of the European defense industry. While member states pledge to increase defense spending, with a projected €7 trillion in total defense spending over ten years by 2035 (with approximately 50% going to equipment), this funding comes from national budgets, not the EU budget, which is significantly smaller.

The Challenge of Fragmentation

The fragmentation of the European defense industry is a major issue. For instance, Europe has 19 main battle tank models compared to the US's one, and 23 different infantry fighting vehicles versus the US's three. This lack of standardization hinders competitiveness and leads national governments to purchase equipment from outside Europe, creating a "vicious circle." The cooperation between Germany and France on ground combat vehicles, for example, is not advancing. The commissioner argues that Germany, as a powerful force in defense, should champion the issue of fragmentation and advocate for joint procurement and more European procurement to leverage the power of the single market.

EU's Crisis-Driven Progress and Space Capabilities

The EU has a history of addressing urgent issues during crises, leading to the creation of new programs and institutional arrangements. Examples include the banking union after the financial crisis, Frontex after the refugee crisis, and joint borrowing during the pandemic. The war in Ukraine is seen as a similar crisis that is driving the development of European defense.

In the realm of space, the EU has achieved significant successes, with its Galileo navigation system being more precise than GPS and Copernicus being a world-class Earth observation system. While the EU is lagging in rocket launching capabilities, it is developing secure satellite communication systems like "G-Space" and planning an Earth observation governmental service for intelligence gathering. The commissioner expresses optimism about space projects, noting that they demonstrate the EU's ability to undertake large, technologically advanced projects with broad participation from member states, a model that could inspire defense initiatives.

Conclusion and Outlook

Despite the challenges, there is a sense of "rational optimism" regarding Europe's ability to enhance its defense capabilities. The significant increase in ammunition production, from an initial capacity of 300,000 rounds in 2022 to a projected 2 million by the end of the current year, is cited as evidence of progress. The overarching message is that Europe will be ready because it "has to be." The discussion concludes with a recognition of the increasing threat posed by Russia in what is described as a hybrid conflict, underscoring the ongoing efforts to prepare the European Union for future security challenges.