Back to Syria? Germany's conservatives face off on deportation plans | Berlin Briefing Podcast

Key Concepts

• Syrian Refugee Crisis in Germany: The arrival of over a million Syrians in Germany over the past decade and its ongoing political implications.
• Deportation Policy: The German government's stance and actions regarding the deportation of Syrian nationals.
• Subsidiary Protection: A legal status granted to individuals who do not qualify for asylum but are still in need of protection, often due to war or conflict.
• Voluntary Return vs. Forced Deportation: The distinction between individuals choosing to return to their home country and those being compelled to leave.
• Political Communication Strategy: The use of statements and rhetoric by politicians to influence public opinion and political discourse, particularly concerning migration.
• Alternative for Germany (AfD): A far-right political party in Germany that has seen a rise in popularity, with migration being a key issue for its voters.
• Christian Democratic Union (CDU): The conservative party led by Friedrich Merz, which is currently in a coalition government and is attempting to counter the AfD's influence.
• Rule of Law and Asylum Rights: The legal framework in Germany that guarantees the right to asylum and the complexities of applying these rights in practice.
• Reconstruction of Syria: The challenges and potential for international aid in rebuilding Syria after years of conflict.

German Foreign Minister's Comments and the Subsequent Debate

The transcript details a heated debate in Berlin triggered by comments made by the German Foreign Minister, Johann Wadephul, during a visit to Syria. While touring a destroyed suburb of Damascus, Wadephul stated that he could "only to a very limited extent" see how people could live there in dignity due to the extensive destruction of infrastructure. This statement was interpreted by some as contradicting the German government's policy and the stance of his own party, the CDU, which advocates for the return of Syrians to their home country.

Key Points and Reactions:

• Wadephul's Statement: He described the dire living conditions in Syria, questioning the feasibility of people returning to live with dignity. He explicitly stated, "I think at this point in time, it's only possible to a very limited extent, because indeed a great deal of the infrastructure in this country has been destroyed."
• Context of Subsidiary Protection: Many Syrians in Germany hold subsidiary protection status, granted because of the ongoing war in their country. The argument is that if the war is no longer considered active, this legal basis for protection might be questioned.
• Clash with Party Policy: Wadephul's comments were seen as diverging from the CDU's push for deportations and the return of Syrians. Friedrich Merz, the leader of the CDU, asserted that the civil war in Syria is over and that the country needs its citizens to rebuild, suggesting many would return voluntarily. Merz stated, "The basic point is this the civil war in Syria is over, and the country now needs all its strength, especially Syrians themselves, to rebuild. That's why many will likely return from Germany voluntarily."
• Political Sensitivity: The debate resurfaced a year after the fall of the Assad regime and is highly sensitive due to the arrival of over a million Syrians in Germany over the past decade. The rise in popularity of the far-right AfD, which focuses heavily on migration, intensifies the pressure on conservative politicians.
• Chancellor Scholz's Support: Chancellor Olaf Scholz publicly backed Wadephul, stating, "I 100% stand with Johann Wadephul." He also drew a comparison, noting the scale of destruction in Syria was worse than Germany post-Second World War.
• Aya Ibrahim's Perspective: As someone who recently reported from Syria, Ibrahim found the political reaction in Berlin disproportionate to the reality on the ground. She described Wadephul's comments as a factual description of the destruction and noted that the debate in Berlin felt removed from the reality of the country and Germany's legal framework. She highlighted that the political bubble in Berlin had created a significant event out of something less remarkable.
• Daniel Thym's Analysis: Thym, a migration researcher, emphasized that the debate is fueled by the AfD's strong performance in polls and the conservative politicians' desire to prevent its further growth. He noted that while the civil war's intense fighting phases are over, Syria is not entirely safe, and the destruction is widespread.

The Reality on the Ground in Syria

Aya Ibrahim provided a firsthand account of the situation in Syria, emphasizing the widespread destruction and the complexities of returning.

Key Points:

• Widespread Destruction: Ibrahim described driving from Damascus to Idlib and witnessing destruction comparable to what Wadephul observed. The infrastructure across the country is heavily damaged.
• Beyond Active Fighting: While the intense phases of the civil war have ended, sporadic violence persists, and the country is not considered completely safe.
• Individual Biographies Matter: Ibrahim stressed that beyond policy discussions, individual Syrians have established lives in Germany since 2015, with jobs, families, and children in school. Uprooting these families for rebuilding efforts, even if a legitimate aspiration, is a significant personal decision.
• Voluntary Return vs. Forced Deportation: She distinguished between incentivized voluntary return programs (offering financial aid for business startups) and forced deportation, highlighting that the former may not appeal to everyone.

Return Numbers and Feasibility

Daniel Thym provided data and analysis on the potential scale of returns from Germany.

Key Points and Figures:

• International Returns: Over a million Syrians have returned, primarily from neighboring countries like Turkey, Lebanon, and Iraq.
• Limited Returns from Germany: Only about 2,500 Syrians have returned from Germany under voluntary return programs.
• Economic and Social Factors: The low return rate from Germany is attributed to economic, social, and family reasons.
• Unrealistic Expectations for Forced Returns: Thym considers it unrealistic for the German government to expect more than 10,000 to 15,000 forced returns annually due to legal and administrative limitations. Court cases for each individual can take up to 1.5 years on average, and repealing protection status for tens of thousands would overwhelm the courts.
• Voluntary Return Projections: He also deems it unrealistic to expect hundreds of thousands to return voluntarily.
• Government's Goal: The government likely aims for visible individual cases and a certain number of returns for political communication purposes.
• Legal Assessment for Return: From a legal perspective, the focus is on individual assessments, considering the region of origin, family support, and basic professional experience for finding work. The requirement is not for a good life, but for basic shelter, medical support, and freedom from fear and anger.
• Target Groups for Return: Courts are beginning to deem conditions acceptable for young, healthy, able-bodied males without families in Germany. The sunni majority is also a consideration. Thym anticipates the first return flights of 200-300 people, focusing on individuals who have committed crimes or are unemployed.

Political Arguments and the AfD Factor

The debate is heavily influenced by the political landscape in Germany, particularly the rise of the AfD.

Key Arguments and Perspectives:

• CDU's Strategy: Friedrich Merz and the CDU are attempting to counter the AfD's influence by adopting a tougher stance on migration and advocating for returns. Aya Ibrahim argues this is "dog whistling to the far right," making AfD rhetoric more normalized.
• AfD's Advantage: The AfD benefits from the debate as it can criticize the government for not achieving its stated goals of large-scale returns, while not being in power and thus not responsible for implementation.
• Justifying the Asylum System: The government needs to justify the current asylum system, arguing it's temporary and for those fleeing active conflict. Failure to demonstrate returns undermines this argument and fuels the AfD's narrative.
• Lack of a Functioning Migration System: The absence of a clear "green card" system, as seen in other countries, contributes to the uncertainty and conflict surrounding the status of Syrians.
• Differentiating Legal Status: The lack of clarity on the legal status of Syrians is a significant issue, as they are not a monolithic group in terms of persecution risk upon return.
• Rule of Law Concerns: Daniel Thym raises concerns about the rule of law if court decisions regarding the lack of protection for certain subgroups are not practically implemented, leading to a further erosion of acceptance for asylum rights.
• Wadephul's Job Stability: Despite the controversy, Michela Küfner and Aya Ibrahim believe Wadephul is stable in his job due to the Chancellor's backing and the nature of his visit as a factual observation. Daniel Thym suggests his position is secure if the government can demonstrate some return flights.

Recommendations and Future Outlook

The discussion touched upon potential solutions and future developments.

Recommendations and Predictions:

• Clearer Categories: Daniel Thym suggests politicians should move beyond a black-and-white debate and create clearer categories. He recommends that everyone who works and is not dependent on social benefits should be allowed to stay, regardless of theoretical return possibilities. Families with children should also likely stay.
• Incentives for Return: For the remaining group, differentiation is needed. Incentives like job finding, stopping reliance on social benefits, and professional training could encourage voluntary returns.
• Focus on Specific Subgroups: Young men who do not work and potentially commit crimes should be the first group considered for return, unless they belong to a persecuted minority.
• Development Assistance for Syria: There's a recognition that creating conditions on the ground in Syria through development assistance is crucial for enabling returns. Germany is expected to be forthcoming in this regard.
• Interim Leader's Visit: The upcoming visit of Syria's interim leader, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, to Berlin is significant, given his past as a rebel and current role.
• "Go and See" Visits: Thym suggests that "go and see" visits, where Syrians are authorized to visit Syria for a short period to assess conditions before returning, might be implemented in the future, especially after initial "hard measures" are taken.
• Lack of Strategy: Thym perceives a lack of a clear strategy from the government regarding Syrians in Germany, contributing to the diffuse communication.
• Public Expectation Management: Thym fears that the debate has created public expectations that the government may struggle to meet, potentially benefiting the AfD.

Conclusion

The debate surrounding the German Foreign Minister's comments on Syria highlights the complex interplay of humanitarian concerns, legal frameworks, political maneuvering, and public opinion in Germany. While the immediate trigger was a statement about the destruction in Syria, the discussion quickly escalated into a broader debate about the future of Syrian refugees in Germany, the effectiveness of deportation policies, and the political strategies employed to counter the rise of the far-right AfD. The consensus among the guests is that while the civil war's intensity has waned, Syria remains unsafe for many, and large-scale returns from Germany are neither logistically nor legally feasible in the short term. The government faces the challenge of managing public expectations, navigating legal complexities, and developing a coherent long-term strategy for integration and potential returns, all while under the intense scrutiny of the political opposition.