Brazil Is China's Most Important Partner In The Americas. Why? | China And The Global South

Key Concepts

• US-Brazil Trade Relations: Deteriorating relationship due to tariffs imposed by the US following the jailing of former Brazilian President Bolsonaro.
• BRICS: A geopolitical alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) perceived by some in the US as a challenge to the dollar’s dominance.
• Chinese Investment in Brazil: Significant and growing Chinese investment across multiple sectors including automotive, e-commerce, energy, and manufacturing.
• Soybean Trade: A key commodity in the US-China-Brazil trade dynamic, impacting American farmers reliant on the Chinese market.
• Multilateralism vs. Bilateralism: Brazil’s leaning towards a multilateral global order based on cooperation versus potential US pressure.
• Geopolitical Risk: The increasing likelihood of nations being drawn into great power rivalry despite desires for neutrality.

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US-Brazil Relations and China’s Growing Influence

The relationship between the United States and Brazil is currently strained, evidenced by protests in Rio de Janeiro in January 2026 supporting Venezuela and condemning US actions. This tension stems from the US imposition of a 40% tariff on Brazilian goods in July 2025, added to an existing 10% baseline tariff. This action was a direct response to the imprisonment of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, a Trump ally and critic of China. A US official stated that BRICS “was set up to hurt us…degenerate our dollar and take our dollar as the standard,” framing the alliance as a threat to US economic dominance, asserting, “If we lost the world standard dollar, that would be like losing a war.”

China’s Economic Expansion in Brazil

China’s economic engagement with Brazil is rapidly expanding, making Brazil a crucial partner in Latin America and the Global South. Brazil’s population of over 200 million, with 40% under the age of 30, presents a substantial consumer market. In 2025, two-way trade between China and Brazil reached $171 billion.

Specific examples of Chinese investment include:

• Ride-Hailing & Food Delivery: DD (99 in Brazil) has become a major competitor to Uber.
• E-commerce: Companies like Tim Teimu, Shin, and Alibaba are aggressively expanding their presence.
• Automotive: BYD and Great Wall Motors have established manufacturing plants in Brazil, capitalizing on the country’s position as the world’s sixth-largest car market. BYD specifically pledged support for job creation beyond its own plant. A representative stated they are “working closely with the local authorities industrial and help them to get update technologies and…qualify more than 150 local vendors to be our suppliers.”
• Energy Sector: Billions of dollars have been invested in electricity transmission projects.

In 2024, Chinese investment in Brazil surged to a record $4.2 billion across 39 projects, making Brazil the third-largest destination for Chinese investment that year.

Trade Dynamics: Soybeans and Beyond

Brazil’s exports to China have increased significantly, particularly in beef and soybeans. Between January and August 2025, Brazil exported 77 million metric tons of soybeans to China, compared to just 17 million metric tons from the US. This shift is particularly concerning for American farmers in the Midwestern states (Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Indiana) who heavily rely on the Chinese market and now fear bankruptcy.

While Venezuela’s oil exports to China exist, they are relatively small (4-5% of China’s total oil imports) compared to imports from Saudi Arabia, other Gulf countries, the US, and even Brazil. Furthermore, China is rapidly transitioning to renewable energy sources, suggesting a decreasing long-term reliance on imported crude oil.

Brazil’s Response and Geopolitical Positioning

Brazil, with its population of 200 million, is demonstrating a willingness to resist US pressure. Days after events in Venezuela, Brazil signed the EU-Mercosur trade deal after 25 years of negotiation, aiming to benefit from increased agricultural exports. This move is viewed as a commitment to a “global order…based on cooperation and partnership between nations according to rules.”

However, Brazil acknowledges its military disadvantage compared to the United States, recognizing that “no country in Latin America…can stand up to the United States on the field of battle.” Consequently, Brazil is seeking alternative strategies for self-protection in a changing geopolitical landscape. The speaker notes that countries are increasingly finding it difficult to “stay out of the great power rivalry.”

Conclusion

The evolving relationship between the US, Brazil, and China highlights a significant shift in the global economic and political order. The US’s imposition of tariffs on Brazil, coupled with China’s aggressive economic expansion, is pushing Brazil towards greater economic independence and a more multilateral approach to international relations. The soybean trade serves as a critical example of how geopolitical tensions can directly impact specific industries and national economies. The situation underscores the increasing difficulty for nations to remain neutral in the face of escalating great power competition.