After Venezuela, Are Cuba And Colombia Next On Trump's Hit List? | China & The Global South

Key Concepts

• US Credibility Decline: Diminishing faith in the US as a stable and benevolent global partner, particularly in the Global South.
• US-China Geopolitical Competition: The shifting dynamics between the US and China as countries navigate a potential decline in US influence.
• US Sanctions & Regime Change Attempts: The long history of US intervention in Cuba, including embargoes and attempts to destabilize the government.
• China’s Role in Latin America: Increasing Chinese economic and political influence in Cuba and Colombia.
• Pax Americana’s Demise: The potential decline of US-led global order.
• Color Revolution/Regime Change: US strategy of supporting opposition movements to overthrow foreign governments.
• Global Security Initiative (GSI): China’s framework for international security cooperation.

The Shifting Geopolitical Landscape in Latin America

The video analyzes the rapidly changing geopolitical landscape in Latin America following events in Venezuela, focusing on the implications for Cuba and Colombia, and the growing role of China. A central theme is the perceived decline in US credibility and the opportunities this presents for China, though not necessarily a direct replacement of US influence.

US Credibility and the Global South

The speaker highlights a significant shift in global perception of the US, particularly in Southeast Asia and the developing world. US support for Israel in Gaza and the intervention in Venezuela have “cratered” US public opinion, leading to a loss of faith in the US as a “stable partner and a force for good.” This isn’t necessarily translating into automatic support for China, but rather a questioning of the US-led world order. “I am just blown away by what I see from key stakeholders across the global south and even to some extent in G7 countries about the fall of US credibility and the fall of faith in the US as a as a stable partner and as a force for good in the world.”

Cuba: A Target in Washington’s Crosshairs

Cuba is presented as a prime example of the US’s continued interventionist policies. The US imposed sanctions in 1962 after Cuba nationalized American-owned oil refineries, and many of these sanctions remain in place. President Trump’s statements indicate a desire to intensify these sanctions, aiming to “maximize the embargo” and potentially trigger regime change. “Cuba is going to be something we'll end up talking about because Cuba is a failing nation right now, very badly failing nation, and we want to help the people of it.”

The video emphasizes Cuba’s resilience despite decades of US pressure. It notes that a direct military invasion, even if “technically successful,” would be a “complete failure” due to the negative international perception it would create, framing the US as an aggressor. The Cuban government, having survived numerous assassination attempts against Fidel Castro, is expected to be prepared for potential aggression.

China’s relationship with Cuba is deepening, with China consistently ranking among Cuba’s top three trading partners. China imports minerals, seafood, tobacco, and pharmaceuticals from Cuba, while exporting electrical equipment, machinery, and vehicles. Chinese investment extends to clean energy and biopharmaceuticals. The Cuban president’s attendance at China’s 2025 Victory Day parade symbolizes this growing alliance. While there’s no official arms trade, the US alleges illicit weapons transfers and claims Cuba is a Chinese spy base – accusations dismissed as “completely unjustified” and potentially a pretext for aggression. China has stated it will support Cuba’s “sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

Colombia: A Deteriorating Alliance

Colombia is presented as another potential target, with President Trump’s comments suggesting imminent action against the country due to its drug production. “Colombia is very sick, too. Run by a sick man who likes making cocaine and selling it to the United States. And he's not going to be doing it very long, let me tell you.” This has sparked protests in Colombia.

Historically, Colombia has been a close US ally, receiving approximately $12 billion in US aid through Plan Colombia, largely for military support in the fight against drug trafficking and guerillas. However, the election of left-wing President Gustavo Petro has strained relations. China has emerged as Colombia’s second-largest trading partner, investing heavily in infrastructure projects like the Ituango hydropower plant (the largest in the Americas) and the Bogota metro system. Cooperation is expanding into areas like wind power, new energy vehicles, and artificial intelligence.

The speaker notes that China views the deterioration of US-Colombia relations as an opportunity. An anecdote reveals that within Chinese political circles, Trump is reportedly known as “comrade” due to the perceived benefits he brings to China.

China’s Growing Influence and the Demise of Pax Americana

The video argues that China’s growing influence isn’t necessarily about actively seeking to replace the US, but rather about demonstrating the US’s declining credibility. “This is the best moment for China because China without firing a single shot has made it believable for everyone in the world that the United States is not a real defender of freedom, a defender of peace, a defender of sovereignty and territorial integrity of other countries.”

The speaker asserts that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is a “complete match” for the US military, even exceeding it in some areas. However, China currently appears unwilling to engage in direct military conflict with the US, preferring to allow the US to “fully expose itself” and accelerate the decline of Pax Americana.

The video concludes by suggesting that China may not rush to “save” Cuba, as doing so could escalate tensions with Washington. However, Cuba’s potential loss of Venezuelan oil and limited support from Russia creates a situation where China’s role becomes increasingly important.

Technical Terms & Concepts

• Embargo: A government order prohibiting trade with a specific country.
• Regime Change: The overthrow of a government by external forces.
• Color Revolution: A nonviolent protest movement aimed at overthrowing a government, often supported by external actors.
• Pax Americana: The concept of the US maintaining global peace and stability through its economic, political, and military power.
• Plan Colombia: A US foreign aid package primarily intended to combat drug trafficking and support the Colombian government in its conflict with guerilla groups.
• Global Security Initiative (GSI): China’s framework for international security cooperation, emphasizing non-interference and mutual respect.
• Hydropower Plant: A power plant that generates electricity using the energy of moving water.

Logical Connections

The video establishes a clear connection between the events in Venezuela, the US’s actions towards Cuba and Colombia, and the resulting shift in global perceptions of US power. It demonstrates how US policies are creating opportunities for China to expand its influence, not through direct competition, but by highlighting the perceived flaws and inconsistencies of US foreign policy. The discussion of Cuba and Colombia serves as case studies illustrating this broader trend.

Data & Statistics

• US Aid to Colombia (Plan Colombia): Approximately $12 billion.
• Ituango Hydropower Plant: Will solve 18% of Colombia’s electricity demand once finished.
• US Sanctions on Cuba: Imposed in 1962 and largely remain in place over six decades later.
• China as Colombia’s Second Largest Trading Partner: Following the United States.

Conclusion

The video paints a picture of a rapidly changing world order where US influence is waning and China is poised to benefit. The US’s interventionist policies, particularly in Latin America, are undermining its credibility and creating opportunities for China to expand its economic and political reach. While China isn’t necessarily seeking to replace the US as the dominant global power, it is effectively demonstrating the limitations of US leadership and accelerating the potential decline of Pax Americana. The situations in Cuba and Colombia serve as critical examples of this evolving dynamic.