Will China Send Its Military To Latin America? | China & The Global South

Key Concepts

• Monroe Doctrine: An 1823 US foreign policy stating that European powers should not colonize or interfere in the affairs of the Western Hemisphere.
• Donroe Doctrine (Trump Corollary): An updated version of the Monroe Doctrine, articulated in the US National Security Strategy (Nov 2025), asserting the US desire for a hemisphere free of "hostile foreign incursion or ownership of key assets" and ensuring US access to strategic locations.
• Lithium Triangle: A geostrategic region spanning Chile, Argentina, and Bolivia, home to 60-75% of the Earth's known lithium reserves, critical for electric vehicle and battery production.
• De-dollarization: The process of reducing reliance on the US dollar for international trade and finance, exemplified by Venezuela pricing oil in yuan.
• Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): China's global infrastructure development strategy, which Panama joined in 2017 before withdrawing under US pressure.
• Trojan Horse Strategy: A term used to describe China's method of gaining influence in Latin America by becoming the number one trading partner.
• BRICS: An acronym for an association of five major emerging national economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, seen by the US as a challenge to the dollar's global standard.
• Pax Americana: A term referring to the relative peace and stability in the Western world since the end of World War II, largely due to the global dominance of the United States.
• Critical Minerals: Resources like lithium, essential for modern technologies and strategic industries.
• Choke Points: Narrow channels or passages, such as the Panama Canal, that are strategically important for global trade and military operations.
• Great Power Competition: The ongoing rivalry between major global powers, particularly the US and China, for influence and dominance.

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The Escalating US-China Rivalry in Latin America

The video details the intensifying geopolitical competition between the United States and China in Latin America, characterized by aggressive US foreign policy under the "Donroe Doctrine" and China's deep economic entrenchment in the region.

US Assertions and the "Donroe Doctrine"

The United States has sent a clear message to China to "stay away from Latin America," asserting its military capabilities to deny China access to the continent. President Trump explicitly stated that the US operation to capture Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife was to prevent China or Russia from establishing a presence in what the US considers its "nextdoor neighbor." This strategy is framed under the "Donroe Doctrine," a Trump corollary to the 1823 Monroe Doctrine, which was updated in the November 2025 US National Security Strategy. This doctrine aims to ensure a hemisphere "free of hostile foreign incursion or ownership of key assets" and to safeguard US access to "key strategic locations" and "critical supply chains." This includes concerns over ports, global trade choke points, and rare earth mining.

China's Deepening Economic Footprint

China's involvement in Latin America extends far beyond Venezuela, which was merely "the tip of the iceberg."

• Trade and Investment Growth: China's trade with Latin America surged from $12 billion two decades ago to a record $518.4 billion in 2024, representing a 3,000% increase. China has become the region's number one trading partner, a development described as a "Trojan horse strategy" by some US officials.
• Critical Minerals: China heavily invests in the "Lithium Triangle" (Chile, Argentina, Bolivia), which holds 60-75% of the Earth's known lithium reserves. In 2024, Chinese companies invested $1 billion in Bolivian lithium extraction plants, crucial for China's global dominance in electric vehicles and batteries.
• Infrastructure and Ports: China is involved in 37 port projects across the continent. A $3.66 billion megaport in Chancay, Peru, majority-owned by China's COSCO Shipping, was inaugurated in November 2024. This port significantly cuts shipping times to China by approximately 23 days and logistics costs by at least 20%, rerouting trade flows directly across the Pacific.
• Energy Sector: Chinese companies control over half of Chile's energy industry and the bulk of Peru's power transmission network. China's presence was highly visible at COP 30 in Brazil in 2025, while the US government did not officially participate.
• Manufacturing and Consumer Markets: Major Chinese brands like EV manufacturer BYD have established factories in Brazil, and there are plans for Chinese solar parks in Cuba. Chinese e-commerce giants like Temu, Shein, and Alibaba are aggressively expanding in Brazil, where Chinese ride-hailing service 99 (Didi) has successfully challenged Uber.
• Complementary Relationship: The relationship is described as complementary: China, being capital-rich and resource-poor, invests in Latin America's resource-rich, capital-poor economies, facilitating trade in natural resources, food, and minerals.

Key Flashpoints and US Pressure Tactics

The US strategy has led to several flashpoints and direct interventions:

• Venezuela: China was Venezuela's largest oil buyer (80% of exports), and Venezuela has supported de-dollarization by pricing oil in yuan since September 2017. The US capture of Maduro was a direct challenge to this relationship.
• Panama: Identified as the "most important country" in the US-China duel, the US is threatening to shut China out of the Panama Canal zone, which would be an "existential threat" to China's trade. Hong Kong company CK Hutchison bought two canal terminals in 1997. Panama joined China's BRI in 2017 but pulled out in 2025 under US pressure. Trump declared, "The Panama Canal was built by Americans for Americans... We're taking it back."
• Cuba: Trump hinted at Cuba as the next target, calling it a "failing nation." Cuba, a long-time Chinese ally, has suffered under US sanctions since 1962. China is consistently one of Cuba's top three trading partners, investing in clean energy and biopharma. The US claims China is involved in illicit weapons transfers and using Cuba as a spy base, which an expert dismisses as an "excuse possibly to launch an aggression."
• Colombia: Trump also threatened Colombia, calling its leader a "sick man who likes making cocaine." Historically a close US ally, Colombia's left-wing President Petro has become a fierce Trump critic. China is now Colombia's second-largest trading partner, investing in major infrastructure projects like the Ituango Hydro Power Plant and the Bogota metro system.
• Brazil: Latin America's largest economy, Brazil faced an additional 40% US tariff in July 2025 for jailing former President Bolsonaro (a Trump ally). Brazil is a founding member of BRICS, which Trump views as an attempt to "degenerate our dollar." Despite this, Brazil is China's most important partner in the region, with $171 billion in two-way trade in 2025. Chinese investments in Brazil surged to a record $4.2 billion in 2024, making it the third-largest destination for Chinese investment. Brazil's soybean exports to China (77 million metric tons, Jan-Aug 2025) far outstripped those to the US (17 million), impacting US Midwestern farmers. Days after Maduro's capture, Brazil signed the EU-Mercosur trade deal, signaling its commitment to a multilateral, rules-based global order.

International Reactions and Future Outlook

The US actions in Venezuela sparked mixed reactions: celebrations among the Venezuelan diaspora in Spain and Argentina, but protests in Colombia, Brazil, London, and Paris. At a UN Security Council emergency meeting, even allies like France condemned US actions, emphasizing respect for international law, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. China has increasingly taken the role of "chief critic" of US intervention, as smaller states are hesitant to provoke Trump.

Experts note a "fall of US credibility and the fall of faith in the US as a stable partner" across the Global South and even in G7 countries, particularly after US support for Israel in Gaza and the Venezuela operation. Developing countries are not necessarily viewing China as the sole alternative.

China's response to US threats is firm:

• It dismisses the "Donroe Doctrine" as "completely false" and vows to "never allow that to happen."
• China will continue normal economic and trade relations.
• It pledges to defend its "legitimate interests" globally, backed by military capabilities, warning that if the US "misbehaves" (e.g., seizing assets), China "may force China to send military convoys to Latin America."
• A Chinese expert stated, "If they want to have war, they will get war. If they want to destroy China, they will be destroyed." However, another expert questioned the PLA's logistical capability to deploy forces so far, noting its focus on coastal defense.

The future of China-Latin America relations is expected to be "much more cautious" for both sides, but the robust trade relationship, especially with countries like Brazil, is likely to "flourish and boom." The era of "frictionless diplomacy" for China is over, and there will be a downturn in "big projects." The video concludes that this marks a "critical shift in human history," where the US no longer pretends to care about values, using "fabrication" to achieve its goals of seizing resources and controlling nations. This forces the rest of the world to "rebalance themselves and try to find a new equilibrium," recognizing the US as potentially not a true friend and China as not necessarily the enemy it is portrayed to be.