Would China use force against Taiwan? | Inside Story

Key Concepts

• Justice Mission 2025: China’s recent large-scale military drills around Taiwan, framed as a warning against separatism and external interference.
• One Country, Two Systems: China’s proposed framework for reunification with Taiwan, modeled after Hong Kong (though increasingly viewed with skepticism in Taiwan).
• Deterrence: The strategy of discouraging an attack by demonstrating the strength and readiness of defense capabilities.
• Red Line: A point beyond which a country is unwilling to compromise or tolerate action, potentially leading to conflict.
• Cognitive Warfare: Utilizing military and non-military means to undermine an opponent’s psychological and informational resilience.
• Containment Policy: A geopolitical strategy aimed at preventing the expansion of a rival power’s influence.
• Cross-Strait Relations: The complex relationship between mainland China and Taiwan.

China-Taiwan Tensions: A Detailed Analysis of Recent Developments

Introduction

Recent heightened tensions between China and Taiwan, marked by China’s largest-ever military drills (“Justice Mission 2025”), have raised concerns about a potential conflict. These drills were triggered by an $11 billion US arms deal with Taiwan and are viewed as a demonstration of China’s resolve to assert its claim over the island. This analysis details the key aspects of the situation, including the motivations behind the drills, potential scenarios, and perspectives from various stakeholders.

The Context: Historical Claims and US Involvement

Since 1949, China has maintained that Taiwan is a renegade province that must eventually be reunified with the mainland, by force if necessary. This position stems from the Chinese Civil War, which resulted in the Communist Party taking control of mainland China while the Nationalist government retreated to Taiwan. The US policy of “strategic ambiguity” – neither confirming nor denying whether it would defend Taiwan – has been a key factor in maintaining a delicate balance. However, increased US arms sales and political support for Taiwan have recently provoked stronger reactions from Beijing.

Justice Mission 2025: Objectives and Messaging

The military drills, described as live-fire exercises, were intended to send a strong signal to three key groups, according to Shan Ryan:

1. Taiwanese population: To discourage any moves towards formal independence.
2. Japan: Specifically, to warn against the increasingly assertive stance of the new Japanese Prime Minister, who suggested Japan might intervene if China attacked Taiwan, and Japan’s plans to double its military budget and potentially rearm with nuclear weapons.
3. United States: To protest the $11 billion arms deal and signal opposition to what China perceives as a containment policy aimed at hindering its economic growth and sovereignty.

China framed the drills as a response to “provocations” by the US and Japan, accusing them of “bullying” China and attempting to return to a historical era of Western and Japanese dominance. The drills were also intended to demonstrate China’s military capabilities and willingness to defend its territorial claims.

Taiwan’s Perspective and Concerns

Chen Chen Yen highlighted that while Taiwan anticipated military drills, the scale of “Justice Mission 2025” was surprising. Taiwan views the drills as a violation of international norms and a threat to regional peace. Concerns center around:

• Economic Blockade: The drills demonstrated the potential for China to disrupt shipping lanes and air routes, impacting Taiwan’s energy supply (with only two weeks of reserves) and trade.
• Psychological Warfare: The drills aimed to intimidate the Taiwanese population and sow discord within society.
• Erosion of the Status Quo: Repeated drills are gradually eroding the unofficial “median line” in the Taiwan Strait, increasing the risk of accidental clashes.
• Lack of Preparedness: Taiwan lacks comprehensive civil defense drills, leaving the population potentially unprepared for a conflict scenario.

International Reactions and Implications

Japan’s Prime Minister’s statement that an attack on Taiwan would be a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan underscores the regional implications of a potential conflict. Jayen Shong explained that a disruption to shipping lanes, air routes, and submarine cables around Taiwan would severely impact Japan’s economy and access to global markets.

The US has responded with sanctions against approximately 30 US firms and individuals involved in the arms sales, but these sanctions are largely symbolic, targeting subsidiaries of larger companies. The US maintains a network of agreements with other Pacific nations, suggesting a broader regional response if China were to attack Taiwan.

Potential Scenarios and Risk of Miscalculation

While China asserts its desire for peaceful reunification, the possibility of miscalculation remains a significant concern. Chen Chen Yen noted that while China has repeatedly threatened military action, the current focus appears to be on influencing the upcoming Taiwanese presidential election, hoping for a victory by the Kuomintang (KMT) party, which favors closer ties with the mainland.

Shan Ryan downplayed the immediate risk of a full-scale invasion, suggesting that China is more likely to employ deterrence and wait for a more favorable political climate in Taiwan. However, he emphasized that Taiwan is a “red line” for China, and it will strongly resist any perceived threats to its sovereignty.

Jayen Shong cautioned that the increasing military investments by both China and its potential adversaries raise the risk of escalation and miscalculation.

Notable Quotes

• Shan Ryan: “China feels that it’s being oppressed and that the Americans and the Japanese are bullying China.”
• Chen Chen Yen: “This is almost like a land diminution of Vietnam War between Viet Vong and the French. It's a encirclement of Taiwan, but not on land, but on the ocean as well.”
• Jayen Shong: “China is a big power… I’m not sure you know China is being bullied.”
• Donald Trump: “I certainly have seen it [the drills], but he [Xi Jinping] hasn’t told me anything about it. And uh I don’t believe he’s going to be doing it. Nothing worries me.”

Conclusion

The recent Chinese military drills represent a significant escalation in tensions across the Taiwan Strait. While a full-scale invasion is not imminent, the risk of miscalculation and escalation remains a serious concern. China’s message is clear: it will not tolerate any moves towards Taiwanese independence or perceived interference from external powers. The situation requires careful diplomacy, clear communication, and a commitment to maintaining the status quo to prevent a potentially catastrophic conflict. The future of cross-strait relations will likely hinge on the outcome of the next Taiwanese presidential election and the evolving geopolitical dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region.