Beijing’s ‘show of force’: Analyst discusses what China is testing with drills around Taiwan

Key Concepts

• PRC (People's Republic of China): Refers to the government of mainland China.
• Designated Zones: Specific areas around Taiwan declared by the PRC for military drills, intended to control airspace and ports.
• Show of Force: Demonstrative military activity intended to intimidate or deter.
• Regional Stability: The state of peaceful relations and predictable interactions between countries in a geographic area.
• Submarine Cables: Underwater cables crucial for global communication and data transfer.
• Maritime Trade Routes/Air Routes: Established pathways for shipping and air travel, vital for global commerce.
• Momentum (in relation to Taiwan): Beijing’s attempt to build support and justification for increased pressure and potential control over Taiwan.

PRC Drills Around Taiwan: A Detailed Analysis

Introduction

This discussion with Chongja, Associate Professor of Political Science at the National University of Singapore, focuses on the significance of recent large-scale military drills conducted by the PRC around Taiwan. The conversation analyzes these drills as a demonstration of force, a pressure tactic, and a means of gauging regional responses. The analysis also touches upon the potential impact on regional stability, particularly concerning Japan and key shipping routes.

1. Significance of Designated Zones & Show of Force

The PRC’s designation of five zones around Taiwan is primarily a “show of force,” intended to demonstrate its capability to control airspace and ports. Professor Chongja clarifies that while these zones indicate potential capabilities, actually executing a complete blockade presents significant operational challenges. The primary goal is to project power and create psychological pressure, both domestically and internationally, through the “propagation of this information and the drawing of the zone.” The scale of the zones is deliberately large to emphasize the PRC’s potential reach.

2. Escalation of Pressure & Long-Term Strategy

The recent drills, while seemingly sudden to outside observers, were anticipated by Taiwanese intelligence. The PRC has consistently conducted military exercises in various locations, including the South China Sea, near Japan (including a “lock-on” incident with Japanese aircraft), and even off the coast of Australia, demonstrating a willingness to operate as it sees fit. These actions are viewed as a deliberate attempt to “dial up the pressure” as part of a long-term strategy regarding Taiwan.

3. Impact on Sino-Japanese Relations

The drills are directly linked to comments made by Japanese Prime Minister Sana Takuchi, who suggested a conflict over Taiwan could threaten Japan’s survival. Professor Chongja explains this concern is rooted in the geographic reality of Japan: vital submarine cable routes and maritime/air trade routes run on either side of Taiwan. Any instability or PRC control over Taiwan would directly impact Japan’s security and economic interests. Beijing is leveraging this situation to justify further pressure on Taiwan and gain momentum for its objectives.

4. Beijing’s Objectives & Regional Reactions (2025 Context)

The drills serve multiple purposes. They demonstrate Beijing’s ability to exert military pressure at any time. However, they also inadvertently increase wariness of the PRC among the Taiwanese and Japanese populations – a potential “counter reaction.” Crucially, Beijing is using these drills to “signal to the rest of the region” and assess their responses. While Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, and to a lesser extent South Korea, have expressed concern, most other regional actors have remained largely silent. This silence is interpreted by Beijing as an indication that it can increase pressure without facing significant opposition.

5. Regional Stability & Disruption Potential

The drills themselves don’t immediately threaten regional stability, but they highlight the PRC’s capacity to disrupt shipping, submarine cables, and air routes. This capability is intended as a signal to other regional actors: non-compliance with Beijing’s interests could result in substantial costs. The lack of vocal opposition from other nations makes it easier for Beijing to pursue these disruptive activities. Professor Chongja emphasizes the need for regional states to demonstrate the “unacceptability of the use of force” if they wish to deter further PRC escalation.

6. Notable Quotes

• “A lot of what the PRC is trying to do is to show that they are able to…block off Taiwan and to create pressure.” – Professor Chongja, on the primary intent of the drills.
• “If anyone looks at a map, right, it's pretty clear where the Japanese are coming from.” – Professor Chongja, highlighting the geographic basis for Japan’s concerns.
• “The PRC can if they want to disrupt uh shipping uh submarine cables air roots.” – Professor Chongja, emphasizing the PRC’s disruptive capabilities.

7. Logical Connections

The conversation flows logically from establishing the context of the drills to analyzing their strategic implications. It connects the drills to specific geopolitical events (Takuchi’s comments), regional reactions, and potential consequences for regional stability. The discussion consistently emphasizes the interplay between Beijing’s actions, regional responses, and the overall strategic landscape surrounding Taiwan.

Conclusion

The PRC’s military drills around Taiwan represent a multifaceted strategy aimed at demonstrating power, increasing pressure on Taiwan, and gauging regional responses. While the drills themselves may not immediately trigger conflict, they highlight the PRC’s growing military capabilities and its willingness to use them to pursue its objectives. The relative silence from many regional actors is concerning, as it potentially emboldens Beijing to escalate its pressure further. The situation underscores the need for a clear and unified response from regional states to deter further escalation and maintain regional stability.