Will the No Kings protest turn into votes for the Democrats? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Electoral Test: The elections in New York City, Virginia, and New Jersey are viewed as a significant indicator of the political sentiment towards both the Republican and Democratic parties ahead of the upcoming midterm elections.
• Democratic Socialist: A political ideology advocating for a socialist economy within a democratic political system.
• Progressive Energy: Refers to a forward-looking and often left-leaning political approach characterized by a desire for social and political reform.
• Ideological Split: Disagreements within a political party regarding core beliefs and policy stances.
• Grassroots Protests: Political movements that originate from ordinary citizens rather than established political organizations.
• Institutional Accommodation: The tendency of societal institutions (like universities, media, and corporations) to adapt or align with prevailing political trends or figures.
• Project 2025: A conservative initiative aimed at reshaping US politics and governance.

Election Overview and Political Mood

Voters in New York City, Virginia, and New Jersey are participating in elections for mayoral and gubernatorial positions. These contests are considered a crucial test for both the Republican and Democratic parties in the lead-up to the next year's midterm elections.

David A. Graham, a staff writer at The Atlantic and author of "The Project: How Project 2025 is reshaping America," suggests that these races, occurring almost exactly one year after Donald Trump's election win, offer insights into the current political mood. He anticipates that, similar to 2017 and 2018, Republicans may fare poorly in Virginia and New York City. An open question remains about whether Trump's influence can help Republicans make inroads in traditionally Democratic New Jersey.

New York City Mayoral Race: Zoran Mandani vs. Andrew Cuomo

The New York City mayoral election is drawing significant attention. Zoran Mandani is favored to win and is characterized by "fresh progressive energy" and positive momentum. His candidacy has generated controversy due to his identification as a democratic socialist and his criticisms of Israel. Mandani previously defeated former Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo in the primaries. Cuomo is now running as an independent candidate.

Graham identifies the split between Mandani and Cuomo as representative of broader tensions within the Democratic Party. This includes:

• Ideological Divide: Mandani represents the left wing of the party, while Cuomo leans towards the center or even the conservative wing.
• Age Difference: Mandani is 34, whereas Cuomo is significantly older and has a long political career.
• Stylistic Differences: Their communication styles differ.
• Insider vs. Outsider Dynamic: Cuomo, with his extensive political background and family legacy (his father was governor), is seen as the quintessential insider, contrasting with Mandani's outsider appeal.

Democratic Party's Vision and Renewal

Graham argues that the Democratic Party currently lacks a clear, unified national vision. The New York City race is significant because it could indicate a move towards a more leftward direction for the party and help define its future leadership, especially given Joe Biden's potential retirement and Kamala Harris's past electoral defeat. The fact that former President Obama is actively endorsing Mandani and other candidates suggests he remains a unifying voice for the party.

However, Graham believes Democrats are largely reacting to President Trump rather than proactively setting their own agenda. While Trump's unpopularity is an advantage, Democrats need to do more to convince voters they are the solution, not just an alternative to Trump, if they aim to win the presidency in 2028.

Translating Discontent into Votes

The recent "no kings" protests, which saw millions participate, highlight a significant level of public discontent. Graham poses the fundamental question for Democrats: can they translate this discontent into votes and build upon it? He notes that these protests have been successful partly because they are grassroots and not led by the Democratic Party, which appears to be playing catch-up. Despite Trump's declining approval ratings, the Democratic Party's approval ratings have also been poor, indicating a need to convince voters that they offer a viable solution.

Shifting Political Landscape and Voter Engagement

Graham observes a difference in how societal institutions, such as universities, major media organizations, and large companies (including those in Silicon Valley), have "accommodated themselves toward Trump." This institutional shift has altered the dynamics of American politics, although voters may be perceiving these changes in a similar fashion.

Challenges for Democratic Platform Building

Graham does not believe Democrats have yet taken the necessary steps to build a solid platform for the midterms or the next presidential election. This is attributed to significant internal disagreements on what that platform should entail. The party faces a multitude of potential leaders with competing visions that differ in ideology, style, communication, age, and geography, preventing any single vision from dominating.

Key Indicators to Watch

Graham will be closely monitoring the New Jersey election to assess Trump's potential inroads with working-class voters and in areas near New York. He will also be examining the margins of victory in the other races. While Democrats are expected to win in Virginia and Mandani in New York City, the extent of their victories will reveal the strength of voter reactions to Trump and the effectiveness of different campaigning styles, such as Mandani's progressive approach and Abigail Spanberger's moderate stance in Virginia. These outcomes will inform the messaging for future elections, including 2026.