One Nation is about to face its first real test in Victoria | 7.30

Key Concepts

• Nepean By-election: A state-level electoral contest in Victoria, Australia, triggered by the resignation of former Liberal Deputy Leader Sam Groth.
• One Nation: A right-wing populist political party led by Pauline Hanson, currently expanding its influence in Victoria.
• Political Dysfunction: Internal instability within the Victorian Liberal Party, characterized by infighting and defamation lawsuits.
• Independent Candidacy: A strategy used by candidates to appeal to voters disillusioned with major party politics.
• Electoral Geography: The seat of Nepean, covering the Mornington Peninsula (Safety Beach to Portsea), with a high concentration of voters in Rosebud.

1. The Nepean By-election Context

The by-election in Nepean serves as a critical test for the rising popularity of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party in Victoria. The seat, traditionally a Liberal stronghold for over two decades, is being contested under a cloud of instability. The vacancy arose following the abrupt resignation of former Liberal Deputy Leader Sam Groth, who stepped down amidst intense internal party conflict.

2. The Liberal Party Campaign

• Candidate: Anthony Marsh, the former Mayor of the Mornington Peninsula Shire Council.
• Strategy: Marsh emphasizes his local government experience (three-time mayor) and his track record of fixing local roads.
• Controversies:
  • Marsh joined the Liberal Party only two months prior to the election.
  • His campaign faced scrutiny over a video featuring "unauthorized road works," which he defended as a safety matter, dismissing the criticism as a distraction from the government's failure to address infrastructure.
• Internal Outlook: Former Liberal MP Bernie Finn, who defected to One Nation after being expelled from the Liberal Party in 2022, predicts "political armageddon" for the Liberals if they lose the upcoming state election, citing deep-seated hatred and dysfunction within the party ranks.

3. One Nation’s Strategy and Challenges

• Candidate: Darren Herkus.
• Policy Transparency: The campaign is marked by a lack of transparency. Herkus refused to discuss specific policies or engage with the media, citing a party-wide policy of not speaking to the ABC.
• Public Perception: While some voters are drawn to Pauline Hanson’s perceived honesty and "different" values, others—such as long-term immigrant residents—express strong opposition, citing concerns that the party promotes hatred and division.

4. The Independent Alternative

Tracy Hutcherson, a former ABC journalist, is running as an independent. Her platform is built on:

• Disenchantment: Capitalizing on voter frustration with major parties that have historically provided "empty promises."
• Local Advocacy: Arguing that a Brisbane-based party (One Nation) cannot effectively advocate for the specific, daily needs of the Nepean electorate.

5. Key Perspectives and Arguments

• Bernie Finn (One Nation): Argues that both Labor and the Liberals are failing the electorate, suggesting that voters are "mad" to support either, thereby positioning One Nation as the only viable alternative.
• Anthony Marsh (Liberal): Positions himself as a pragmatic local leader, attempting to distance his candidacy from the state-level party dysfunction by focusing on his tenure as mayor.
• Ricardo Hazabal (Voter): Represents the segment of the electorate that views One Nation as a threat to social cohesion, specifically citing his experience as an immigrant as a reason for his opposition.

6. Synthesis and Conclusion

The Nepean by-election highlights a significant shift in the Victorian political landscape. The Liberal Party is struggling to maintain its traditional base due to internal toxicity and a lack of trust, while One Nation is attempting to capitalize on this vacuum despite a strategy of media avoidance and policy opacity. Meanwhile, independent candidates are positioning themselves as the voice for voters who feel ignored by the major parties. The outcome of this election will serve as a bellwether for whether the "disenchantment" with major parties will translate into a permanent shift toward populist or independent representation in the Victorian state parliament.