Why this time, the Israel-Hamas ceasefire might succeed | DW News

Key Concepts

• Two-State Solution: A proposed resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict envisioning an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel.
• Reconstruction, Safety, Governance: Three critical pillars for the future of post-war Gaza.
• Sharm El Sheikh Negotiations: Ongoing peace talks between Hamas and Israel, facilitated by the US, Egypt, and Qatar.
• Trump Plan: A US-brokered peace initiative for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
• Realpolitik: A system of politics based on practical rather than moral or ideological considerations.
• IDF Redeployment: The repositioning of the Israeli Defense Forces.
• New York Declaration: A comprehensive peace plan for the Middle East, endorsed by 142 countries, initiated by France and Saudi Arabia.
• Civil Society: Non-governmental organizations and institutions that represent citizens' interests and play a role in conflict resolution and peacebuilding.
• Dehumanization: The process of stripping individuals or groups of their human qualities, often a barrier to reconciliation.

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European Hopes for Post-War Gaza and Paris Talks

French President Emmanuel Macron is hosting talks in Paris with ministers from several Middle Eastern and European nations, aiming to discuss the future of Gaza. Macron emphasizes that any agreement must signify the end of the war and the beginning of a two-state political solution.

The meeting, as clarified by top French diplomats, is not intended to compete with the ongoing peace negotiations in Sharm El Sheikh between Hamas and Israel (fostered by the US, Egypt, and Qatar). Instead, it focuses on the long-term prospects for Gaza. The timing is considered opportune, given the potential progress in a ceasefire deal.

The Paris discussions center on three key areas:

1. Reconstruction: How to rebuild the war-torn Gaza Strip.
2. Safety: How to establish security for the people on the ground.
3. Governance: What a future government in Gaza might look like.

These discussions occur against the backdrop of France and other international countries recognizing the state of Palestine and the strong emphasis on a two-state solution at a recent UN meeting in New York.

US Absence and Israeli Discontent

A significant challenge for the Paris meeting is the absence of the US Secretary of State, Maria (likely a mishearing of Blinken), who withdrew due to Israeli dissatisfaction. Israel's Foreign Minister expressed strong opposition on X (formerly Twitter), calling the meeting "unnecessary and harmful like the previous one" and stating it could disrupt the ongoing Trump plan negotiations.

Israel's criticisms include:

• The meeting was not coordinated with them.
• Spain should not have been invited due to its "openly hostile" stance towards Israel.
• France is applying double standards, as it advocates "no deal about Ukraine without the implication of Ukraine" but does not apply the same principle to Israel regarding Gaza.
• Israel asserts that "anything that is being agreed upon towards Gaza, including Gaza, is not happening if it doesn't include Israel as well."

European Union's Role and Goals

European nations, including France, aim to secure a more active role in Middle East peace negotiations, a goal complicated by past divisions within the EU. Historically, countries like Germany and Austria have been very supportive of Israel's right to defense, while others like Spain and Belgium have been critical of Israeli military actions and emphasized the importance of recognizing a Palestinian state.

Katyakalas, a top EU diplomat, is present, signaling the EU's intent to make an impact. A potential outcome discussed is the establishment of an international mission under the umbrella of the UN, possibly involving European troops, to replace the Israeli military, reconstruct, and stabilize the region. However, this remains speculative.

The Current Ceasefire Deal: Fragility and Next Steps

In Tel Aviv, there are mixed emotions at Hostage Square: hope and relief, but also worry that the deal might fall through and concern for both living and deceased hostages. The Israeli security cabinet is meeting to authorize the deal.

The process for implementing the deal from the Israeli side involves:

1. A security cabinet meeting, followed by a full government vote to authorize the plan.
2. Publication of the list of Palestinian prisoners to be exchanged for hostages, allowing for a 72-hour appeal period.
3. The release of hostages (alive and deceased).
4. The withdrawal of the Israeli army from over 80% of Gaza to a certain point, which is already a point of contention in this first phase.

This deal is described as the "first phase of a 20-point plan" put forward by the Americans, not a complete peace deal. Its fragility is highlighted by the need for further negotiation on details and past instances where ceasefires broke down. Key issues for future phases include the governance of Gaza, Palestinian involvement, the disarmament of Hamas, and the full withdrawal of the Israeli army.

Donald Trump's Influence and the Path to Peace

John Lindon, Executive Director of the Alliance for Middle East Peace, highlights several factors making this ceasefire attempt different:

• President Trump's direct involvement: His personal engagement and pressure on Prime Minister Netanyahu were crucial in closing remaining gaps.
• Changed Gulf dynamics: An Israeli strike in Qatar against Hamas targets, which failed, led Gulf leaders to exert pressure on both Trump and Hamas.
• UN's role: A UN General Assembly meeting in September focused entirely on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, where Arab leaders conveyed their unhappiness and potential consequences of continued war to Trump.
• Civil society pressure: Months of demonstrations in Israel for hostage release and an end to the war, coupled with international civil society pressure, created a universal sense that the "moral abyss" had to end.

Lindon expresses concern that Trump might claim credit for the breakthrough but lose interest in full implementation. He suggests binding Trump to the deal through potential Nobel Peace Prize nominations and leveraging domestic political incentives, as polling shows vast majorities of Americans (including MAGA voters) want him to lead on a negotiated solution, not just a ceasefire.

Israel's Incentives and Rebuilding Trust

A major worry is Israel's incentive to fully end the war once all hostages are returned. Lindon argues that the international community must "wrap their arms around the deal" and make it an "offer that cannot be refused" by Netanyahu. He cites Trump's alleged statement, "BB, you can't go to war with the whole world," emphasizing that continued war would lead to greater isolation and anger. Upcoming Israeli elections (before October next year) and the Israeli public's desire for an end to the conflict are also seen as potential drivers for peace.

Rebuilding trust, deeply eroded by the October 7th attack and the subsequent war, is paramount. Lindon stresses that while diplomacy is crucial, it must be complemented by efforts to address the trauma and shattered populations in both Israel and Palestine. Civil society plays a vital role here, with organizations like MEP (Alliance for Middle East Peace) having over 180 members working to bring Palestinians and Israelis together, generate policy ideas, build trust, and deal with trauma.

He emphasizes that conflict resolution must work with traumatized societies, not be hindered by them. The G7 leaders' pledge to institutionalize civil society's role, the integration of civil society ideas in the New York Declaration, and Point 18 of the Trump plan (which discusses Israeli-Palestinian civil society efforts) are positive steps. The process cannot be solely "elite-driven top-down"; it needs to involve millions of ordinary citizens to isolate extremists and create space for diplomacy to succeed.

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Synthesis/Conclusion

The current efforts to address the Gaza conflict involve a multi-faceted approach, with European nations, led by France, pushing for a post-war vision centered on reconstruction, safety, and governance, alongside a two-state solution. This initiative faces significant challenges, particularly Israel's opposition to external interventions not aligned with its interests and the absence of the US from the Paris talks. The immediate focus is on a fragile ceasefire deal, a 20-point plan whose successful implementation hinges on overcoming numerous contentious details, including the extent of Israeli withdrawal and future governance of Gaza. President Trump's direct involvement is credited with pushing the current ceasefire forward, but concerns remain about his sustained commitment. Ultimately, achieving a lasting peace requires not only diplomatic breakthroughs but also a profound effort to rebuild trust and address the deep-seated trauma within both Israeli and Palestinian societies, with civil society playing a critical role in fostering reconciliation and isolating extremist elements.