Why do Musk and Vance want more US babies? | BBC News

Key Concepts

• Pronatalism: An ideology promoting human reproduction, often advocating for high birth rates.
• Tech Right: A political movement combining elements of the tech industry with right-wing politics, often characterized by libertarianism, nationalism, and a focus on technological solutions.
• Replacement Rate: The average number of children a woman needs to have to replace herself and her partner, typically around 2.1 in developed countries, to maintain a stable population.
• Great Replacement Theory: A far-right white nationalist conspiracy theory asserting that white populations are being demographically and culturally replaced by non-white populations, often through immigration and lower birth rates.
• Population Pyramids: Graphical representations showing the distribution of various age groups in a population, typically by sex, used to illustrate population growth or decline trends.
• IVF (In Vitro Fertilization): A medical procedure used to help with fertility or prevent genetic problems and assist with the conception of a child, involving fertilizing an egg outside the body.
• Embryo Screening: Genetic testing performed on embryos (e.g., for IQ or genetic defects) before implantation during IVF.

---

The Pronatalist Push: Motivations and Key Figures

The video explores why prominent figures like Elon Musk and JD Vance advocate for increased birth rates, a movement termed "pronatalism." This advocacy is rooted in fears of societal and economic collapse due to declining populations.

• Elon Musk: An outspoken pronatalist, believed to have 14 children, who openly states his belief in creating "smarter children." He is described as the "final boss of the tech right."
• JD Vance: A self-professed pronatalist and a key figure in the "tech right," who actively promotes the message of Americans having more babies. His Senate race was sponsored by Peter Thiel.
• Peter Thiel: A significant venture capitalist in Silicon Valley, co-founder of PayPal, early investor in Facebook, and head of Palantir (a controversial data company). Thiel is a figurehead of the "tech right" and invests in fertility technology.
• Simone and Malcolm Collins: A couple who exemplify extreme pronatalism, believing they are "intelligent, genetically superior" and thus have a duty to produce many children. Simone, expecting her fifth child, claims to have screened her embryos for IQ.

The primary motivation for these figures is the link between population growth and economic growth. They fear that population decline will lead to economic decline, questioning "who's going to buy all this tech that they're producing? who's going to use all these businesses that they're investing in."

The "Tech Right" and its Contradictions

The "tech right" is a powerful and influential group of wealthy figures in American politics. While they invest billions in developing Artificial Intelligence (AI) and automation technologies that are widely expected to displace human jobs, they simultaneously argue for increased population to ensure a sufficient workforce. This presents a significant contradiction: developing technology that reduces the need for human labor while advocating for more human laborers.

Government Stance on Pronatalism

The current US administration has shown limited concrete pronatalist action. While there was an early executive order aimed at making IVF more affordable, overall, "very little that would be seen as really obviously pronatalist" has been implemented.

Diverse Strands of the Pronatalist Movement

Pronatalism is not monolithic; it encompasses various groups with differing motivations and approaches, as highlighted by a March conference in Texas:

• Tech Right: This group, including figures like Simone and Malcolm Collins, supports advanced fertility technologies such as IVF and embryo screening.
• Traditional Religious Pronatalists: This strand, encompassing both Christian and some Jewish adherents, believes in a moral or spiritual obligation to have many children, often rooted in traditional family values.
• Points of Disagreement: A significant divergence exists regarding IVF. Many traditional Christian right adherents oppose IVF due to the creation and potential destruction of embryos.

Women's Role and Perspectives

While the pronatalist movement is "overwhelmingly men," women like Simone Collins are prominent figures. There is a growing movement among conservative right-wing women in American politics who express a desire to focus on family rather than work, aligning with traditional family values (e.g., within Charlie Kirk's Turning Point USA movement).

A critical perspective questions whether, in a pronatalist vision, women are reduced to "machines to keep having babies." While some pronatalists might argue for women focusing on childbearing in younger years before pursuing careers, there is an "element that does believe women should just stay at home," particularly within more extreme strands.

Extreme Pronatalism and the Great Replacement Theory

Some extreme pronatalists harbor specific demographic concerns, primarily focusing on the population of white people. They subscribe to the Great Replacement Theory, a far-right white nationalist conspiracy theory positing that non-white cultures are replacing white culture due to higher birth rates among the former. This theory often underpins their opposition to immigration.

The Reality of Global Population Decline

It is factually true that birth rates are "falling massively in lots of places," and this trend has significant implications.

• Replacement Rate: For a developed country to maintain or increase its population, the average replacement rate is 2.1 children per woman.
• Record Lows:
  • England and Wales (2022-2023): 1.44 children per woman (record low).
  • Scotland (2024): 1.25 children per woman.
  • US (2023): 1.62 children per woman (record low).
  • South Korea (2024): 0.75 children per woman (lowest in the world).
• Exceptions: Many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are experiencing higher birth rates.
• Population Pyramids: These visual aids demonstrate population trends:
  • Growing Population (e.g., Senegal): A pyramid thicker at the bottom (more babies), tapering towards the top.
  • Declining/Aging Population (e.g., Singapore): Thicker around the middle (20-30 year olds), indicating insufficient births to replace older generations.
• Consequences: Fewer young people to pay taxes, contribute to pensions, and care for the elderly, which is a concern for governments.

Proposed Solutions and Their Challenges

Governments and policymakers face a dilemma regarding population decline, with several potential solutions, each with significant drawbacks:

1. Having More Babies: This is not a "quick fix," as it takes approximately 20 years for new births to translate into economic contributions.
2. Raising the Retirement Age: This involves making people work longer. China has implemented this, and France is planning to, despite "huge protests."
3. Immigration: Bringing in young people from other countries can fill labor gaps. The UK, for example, has relied on immigration to fill fertility gaps since the 1950s. However, this is "politically... not a popular solution," often due to fears of cultural alteration, linking back to the Great Replacement Theory and a preference for "young western people" over "young people at any cost."

Underlying Causes of Declining Birth Rates

While improved economic conditions (e.g., affording bigger houses, less worry about childcare) might slightly boost birth rates, the video argues that deeper cultural shifts are at play:

• Improved Healthcare: As child healthcare improves and more children survive, people tend to choose to have fewer children.
• Evolving Adulthood Milestones: Marriage and partnering, once a "cornerstone" of adult life, are now often seen as a "capstone," occurring later or not at all.
• Reduced Stigma: The stigma around not having children has significantly diminished.
• Changes in Social Interaction: Young people are reportedly meeting each other less, leading to declines in marriages and "coupling up."

These are described as "big cultural things that aren't going to change just because people are earning a bit more money or feeling a bit more comfortable financially."

---

Synthesis and Conclusion

The pronatalist movement, championed by influential figures like Elon Musk and JD Vance, is driven by concerns over the economic ramifications of declining birth rates. This movement, particularly its "tech right" faction, presents a paradox by simultaneously developing job-replacing AI and advocating for more workers. While the reality of falling birth rates in developed nations is undeniable, leading to demographic challenges like an aging workforce and strain on social systems, the proposed solutions are complex and often politically contentious. Simply encouraging more births is a long-term strategy, raising retirement ages faces public resistance, and immigration, though effective, is often met with cultural anxieties, sometimes fueled by white nationalist ideologies. Ultimately, the video suggests that the root causes of declining birth rates are deeply embedded in cultural shifts, improved healthcare, and evolving societal norms, indicating that simple economic incentives alone are unlikely to reverse these profound demographic trends.