Why can’t Ethiopia and Eritrea be friends? | Mapped Out

Key Concepts:

• Abiy Ahmed's rise and fall from grace
• Ethiopia-Eritrea relations (past and present)
• Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF)
• Eritrea's President Isaias Afwerki's influence
• Ethiopia's landlocked status and desire for Red Sea access
• Geopolitical tensions in the Horn of Africa

1. Abiy Ahmed's Rise and Initial Reforms:

• Abiy Ahmed became Prime Minister of Ethiopia in 2018.
• He was initially celebrated for making peace with Eritrea, ending a long-standing conflict.
• He released political prisoners and appointed women to half of his cabinet, earning him widespread praise and the nickname "Abiymania."
• He was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts in establishing peace with Eritrea.

2. The Tigray Conflict and War Crimes:

• Abiy failed to unite Ethiopia along ethnic lines, leading to discontent, particularly from the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF).
• The power struggle between Abiy's government and the TPLF escalated into a civil war in the Tigray region.
• The two-year conflict resulted in up to 600,000 deaths and displaced over 2 million people.
• Both Ethiopian forces and the TPLF were accused of war crimes, including mass killings, starvation of civilians, rape, and looting.
• A peace deal was signed in 2022, but tensions remained.

3. Eritrea's Role and Isaias Afwerki's Influence:

• Eritrea's relationship with Ethiopia has been historically plagued by conflict.
• Eritrea has a disproportionately large military, with as many as one in ten Eritreans enrolled.
• President Isaias Afwerki has held Eritrea in a totalitarian grip for over three decades and exerts significant influence in the Horn of Africa.
• Afwerki and Abiy initially had a close relationship, but it has since deteriorated.
• Eritrea was unhappy about being left out of the peace agreement between Ethiopia and the TPLF.

4. Historical Context of Ethiopia-Eritrea Relations:

• In the late 19th century, Italy colonized Eritrea.
• Ethiopia was one of the few African countries never formally colonized.
• After World War II, the UN federated Eritrea into Ethiopia, but Ethiopia later annexed Eritrea, making it a province.
• Eritreans fought for independence for 30 years, finally achieving it in 1993, with Isaias Afwerki as their leader.
• A border dispute after Eritrea's independence led to further conflict, resulting in tens of thousands of deaths.

5. Ethiopia's Desire for Red Sea Access:

• Ethiopia is the most populous landlocked country in the world, which is seen as a disadvantage.
• Abiy Ahmed views access to the Red Sea as an existential need and a matter of national pride.
• Ethiopia relies heavily on Djibouti for its imports and exports, paying over $1 billion a year in fees.
• Abiy has explored other options, including the port of Berbera in Somaliland, but these efforts have faced resistance.
• He has also expressed interest in the Eritrean ports of Assab and Massawa.
• Abiy's rhetoric about Red Sea access has raised tensions with neighboring countries.

6. Geopolitical Alliances and Tensions:

• Abiy's pursuit of Red Sea access has led to the formation of alliances against Ethiopia, such as the one between Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia in 2024.
• The region is characterized by shifting alliances and rivalries.

7. Potential for Peace and the Future:

• Despite the tensions, there is potential for peace and cooperation between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
• During a brief period of relaxed border controls, people from both countries were reunited and celebrated together.
• The future depends on the leadership of Abiy Ahmed and Isaias Afwerki.

8. Notable Quotes:

• "Abiymania" - used to describe the widespread praise and admiration for Abiy Ahmed.
• Abiy has described Ethiopia’s situation as “geographical prison”.
• When Abiy talks about Eritreans, he often calls them "our brothers and sisters".

9. Technical Terms and Concepts:

• Hegemony: Dominance or leadership of one group over others.
• Landlocked: A country entirely surrounded by land, with no direct access to the sea.
• Totalitarian: A political system in which the state holds total authority and suppresses all opposition.

10. Synthesis/Conclusion:

Abiy Ahmed's initial promise as a peacemaker has been overshadowed by internal conflict, geopolitical tensions, and his pursuit of Red Sea access for Ethiopia. The complex relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea, marked by historical grievances and shifting alliances, continues to be a source of instability in the Horn of Africa. While the potential for peace exists, the future depends on the actions and decisions of the region's leaders.