Are the Taliban now India's friend and Pakistan's enemy? | DW News Desk

Key Concepts

• Pakistan-Afghanistan Border Clashes: Recent military engagements between Pakistani troops and Afghan Taliban fighters.
• TTP (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan) / Pakistan Taliban: A militant group accused by Pakistan of operating from Afghanistan and conducting terror attacks within Pakistan.
• Durand Line: The contested border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, drawn by the British, recognized by the UN and Pakistan but not by Afghan authorities.
• India-Taliban Diplomatic Engagement: Recent high-level meetings between Indian and Afghan Taliban officials, signaling a shift in India's approach.
• IC814 Hijacking: A 1999 incident where an Indian Airlines flight was hijacked to Kandahar, leading to India releasing Pakistan-backed terrorists to the Taliban.
• ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence): Pakistan's external spy agency, historically accused of supporting and funding the Taliban.
• Imran Khan's Stance on Taliban: Former Pakistani Prime Minister's sympathetic view of the Taliban takeover in 2021.
• Women's Rights in Afghanistan: The severe restrictions imposed on women and girls by the Taliban regime, termed "gender apartheid" by the UN.
• Realpolitik: A foreign policy approach based on pragmatic material or strategic factors rather than on ideological or ethical considerations.
• Bagram Air Base: A strategically important former US military base in Afghanistan, subject to regional geopolitical discussions.
• Great Game / New Great Game: Historical and contemporary geopolitical rivalry for influence in Central and South Asia, particularly concerning Afghanistan.
• UN Sanctions: International restrictions imposed on certain Taliban officials, requiring waivers for international travel.
• Inclusive Afghan Government: A demand from the international community and now Pakistan for a government in Afghanistan that represents all segments of society.
• Islamic State Khorasan (ISK): A regional affiliate of the Islamic State, operating in Afghanistan and Pakistan, posing a significant terrorist threat.

---

Recent Escalation and Geopolitical Shifts

The discussion opens with reports of escalating tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, specifically an alleged Pakistani air strike in Afghanistan's Kandahar province and border clashes between Afghan Taliban fighters and Pakistani troops. These incidents occurred concurrently with a significant diplomatic development: the Afghan Taliban's acting foreign minister, Amir Khan Mutaki, was in India, engaging with a traditional rival of Pakistan. This juxtaposition raises the central question: why are "old friends" (Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban) now in conflict, while "old rivals" (the Taliban and India) are forging new ties?

Community comments reflect diverse perspectives: some Indians express a desire for good relations with Afghanistan but not the Taliban without reform, while others view India's engagement as a strategic move against Pakistan. Geopolitical motivations, including alleged engineering by Russia or influence by the US, are also suggested. A poll question asks viewers about the best way to engage with the Taliban, offering options such as recognizing their government, providing humanitarian aid, pushing for women's rights, or avoiding engagement entirely.

Context of the Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict

The recent clashes are rooted in a series of events, including alleged Pakistani air strikes in Kabul and Paktika province last Thursday, which the Afghan Taliban claims as the trigger. Pakistan, without official confirmation or denial of these specific strikes, is reportedly targeting leaders of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistan Taliban. Pakistan accuses the Afghan Taliban government of harboring TTP militants, who are allegedly finding safe haven in Afghanistan and carrying out terror attacks inside Pakistan.

The timing of these alleged air strikes is crucial, as they coincided with Mutaki's visit to India. This highlights the complex interplay of security concerns and diplomatic maneuvers in the region.

India's Diplomatic Engagement with the Taliban

Amir Khan Mutaki's visit to India marked a significant step towards normalizing ties. During his meetings with Indian Foreign Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, agreements were reached to enhance India's technical mission in Kabul to an embassy-level status and for the Taliban to send diplomats to Delhi. India also pledged humanitarian aid, including ambulances, and discussed working on infrastructure projects, particularly in healthcare, under the Taliban's auspices.

This engagement is a culmination of contacts initiated in August 2021, shortly after the Taliban took over Kabul, followed by an Indian delegation visit in 2022 and a trade agreement using air corridors. For India, this shift is particularly notable given its historical experience with the Taliban, exemplified by the 1999 IC814 hijacking, where an Indian Airlines flight was forced to land in Kandahar, leading to India releasing Pakistan-backed terrorists to the Taliban. This event deeply shaped India's perception of the Taliban as a proxy for Pakistan.

Pakistan's Shifting Relationship with the Taliban

Historically, Pakistan has been a staunch supporter of the Taliban. India has consistently alleged Pakistan's backing, a fact acknowledged even within Pakistani official circles. Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) was accused of training, supporting, and financing the Taliban for decades. From 1996 to 2001, Pakistan was one of only three nations to recognize the Taliban government. Visual evidence, such as the then-ISI chief Lt. Gen. Hamid's visit to Kabul in September 2021, was widely seen as proof of this close relationship. Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan also publicly praised the Taliban takeover, calling it a "breaking through the shackles of slavery," despite the regime's international condemnation for human rights violations.

However, this relationship soured after the Taliban's return to power in 2021. Pakistan, which had celebrated the Taliban's victory, miscalculated, expecting the Afghan Taliban to remain a proxy. The Afghan Taliban, having defeated the US and NATO, sought greater sovereignty and respect, refusing to be dictated by Pakistan. This shift led to the current friction, with Pakistan now facing a "deadly insurgency" from the TTP, which it claims is harbored by the Afghan Taliban.

The TTP Threat and Border Disputes

Pakistan is grappling with a severe insurgency in its Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces, bordering Afghanistan. Over 1,000 people were killed in terrorist attacks last year, with hundreds more in 2024, primarily attributed to the TTP. Pakistan asserts that TTP militants operate from Afghanistan with the support of the Afghan Taliban. This claim is corroborated by independent and UN experts, despite the Afghan Taliban's denials.

A significant point of contention is the Durand Line, the border drawn by the British, recognized by the UN and Pakistan, but not by Afghan authorities. Taliban fighters have reportedly broken border fences, further exacerbating tensions. The TTP, formed around 2007 during the US invasion of Afghanistan, shares ethnic, linguistic, and familial ties with the Afghan Taliban. They resisted the Pakistani state's cooperation with the US and NATO and supported the Afghan Taliban during their 20-year fight. Pakistan now demands that the Afghan Taliban sever these ties and help contain the TTP threat, a difficult proposition given the Afghan Taliban's "honor code" and history of hosting groups like Al-Qaeda. The presence of Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, Pakistan, also raises questions about Pakistan's historical denials of sheltering militants.

Internally, the Afghan Taliban is not a monolithic entity; factions exist, with some advocating for women's rights and education, while others are "hardcore conservatives." This internal division could potentially be an avenue for engagement, though the current leadership is dominated by the latter. Pakistan's military, currently "in no mood of talks," is pushing for national unity to back strong military operations against the TTP and a firm stance against the Afghan Taliban.

India's Realpolitik and Women's Rights

India's engagement with the Taliban is characterized as realpolitik, driven by changing regional dynamics and strategic interests. India, like Pakistan, seeks a friendly or at least non-hostile regime in Kabul to secure its own security interests and gain strategic depth. India also aims to avoid being isolated as other regional and global powers, such as China and Russia, engage with the Taliban. China has an embassy in Kabul (though not officially recognized the Taliban), is interested in mining, and is concerned about terrorism in Xinjiang. Russia is the only country to have officially recognized the Taliban regime. India also has economic interests, including connecting with Central Asia and investing in Afghanistan's mining sector.

Despite the diplomatic engagement, India has not officially recognized the Taliban regime. This is primarily due to several factors: many Taliban officials, including Mutaki, are on UN sanctions lists (requiring waivers for travel); the UN has set conditions for recognition (inclusive government, women's rights, counter-terrorism); and India's policy is rooted in UN policy. Crucially, the Taliban's "gender apartheid" – its repressive and misogynistic policies towards women and girls – remains a major obstacle.

During Mutaki's visit, a contentious press conference saw women journalists initially excluded. At a subsequent press conference, an Indian woman journalist, Smita Sharma, directly questioned Mutaki about the denial of education to women and girls in Afghanistan. Mutaki's response was evasive, claiming the Taliban never declared education "haram" but offering no explanation for the current bans. Sandra Petersmann, DW's New Delhi Bureau Chief, who was in Kabul in 2022, shared her personal impressions, noting the Taliban's justifications for restrictions based on "Sharia law" and "Afghan culture," while in reality, the regime has become increasingly repressive, leading to a devastating maternal health crisis. She expressed skepticism about any imminent positive change for women's rights.

Regional Implications and the "New Great Game"

The evolving situation in Afghanistan and the shifting alliances are seen as making South Asia a more dangerous place. Afghanistan, due to its strategic location, has historically been at the center of the "Great Game" and is now a battleground for a "New Great Game" involving three nuclear powers (India, Pakistan, China) and global powers (US, Russia). This geopolitical competition keeps Afghanistan in a weak and vulnerable position.

The region faces a significant threat from multiple terrorist groups, including Islamic State Khorasan (ISK), Al-Qaeda, and TTP, which operate in Afghanistan and border areas. These groups sporadically attack various countries, posing a continuous security challenge. Pakistan, after years, is now pushing for an "inclusive Afghan government," a demand that "triggers" the Afghan Taliban. Pakistan may even consider supporting an opposition if its security concerns are not addressed.

A temporary 48-hour ceasefire between Afghan Taliban and Pakistani troops was announced during the discussion, offering a brief respite. However, the underlying issues remain. While international pressure and sanctions have not forced the Taliban to change its course, they have worsened Afghanistan's humanitarian crisis. The UN advocates for continued engagement, a view supported by many regional powers. Ultimately, for regional stability, Pakistan, India, and Afghanistan must find a way to negotiate and resolve their differences.

Conclusion

The complex interplay of historical grievances, shifting alliances, and persistent security threats defines the current landscape in South Asia. The recent border clashes between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban, juxtaposed with India's pragmatic engagement with the Taliban, underscore a significant realignment of regional dynamics. While India pursues its strategic interests through realpolitik, the Taliban's repressive policies, particularly concerning women's rights, remain a major international concern and an obstacle to full recognition. The ongoing TTP insurgency, fueled by alleged safe havens in Afghanistan, continues to destabilize Pakistan. The region is caught in a "New Great Game," with major powers vying for influence, making dialogue and negotiation crucial, yet challenging, for achieving lasting peace and stability.

The poll results, showing a near-equal split between recognizing the Taliban government and providing humanitarian aid as the best engagement strategies, highlight the divided international opinion on how to approach the de facto authorities in Afghanistan.