Why a 'low energy' election campaign is favouring Labor | 7.30

Key Concepts

• Trump's Influence: The potential impact of Donald Trump's policies and persona on the Australian election.
• Coalition's Economic Plan: The perceived lack of a clear economic strategy from the Liberal-National Coalition.
• Right-Wing Shift: The movement of some conservative voters towards minor parties like Palmer's United Australia Party and One Nation.
• Victorian Factor: The unpopularity of the Victorian state Labor government and its potential impact on federal election results.
• Low Energy Campaign: The perceived lack of excitement and engagement in the early stages of the election campaign.
• Underestimation of Peter Dutton: The idea that Peter Dutton's public image may not accurately reflect his capabilities as a political leader.
• Cost of Living: A key issue being emphasized by the Labor government in their campaign.

Trump's Shadow and its Impact

Christopher Pine and Bill Shorten discuss the potential impact of Donald Trump on the Australian election. Pine suggests that Trump's unpredictability and policies, such as tariffs, could be detrimental. He believes neither Labor nor Liberal truly want Trump heavily involved in the campaign. Shorten argues that Peter Dutton's attempts to appear both agreeable and tough towards Trump are contradictory and risky. He believes the real issue is the Coalition's lack of a clear economic plan, which is exposed by Dutton's reliance on his supposed relationship with Trump.

The Right-Wing Challenge

Shorten highlights the problem of right-wing voters shifting towards parties like Palmer's UAP and One Nation, especially when they perceive the Coalition as likely to lose. He argues this indicates a lack of confidence in the Coalition's right-wing base. Pine adds that these voters are unlikely to preference Labor, benefiting the Coalition.

The Victorian Factor

Shorten acknowledges the unpopularity of the Victorian state Labor government, but believes voters will ultimately focus on national issues like Medicare and tax cuts when casting their federal vote. Pine agrees that seats will likely change in Victoria, but questions the extent of the predicted swing. He points out that Daniel Andrews won convincingly in the last state election despite negative media coverage.

Campaign Performance and Strategy

Pine describes the election campaign as "low energy" and suggests that neither side has excited voters. He emphasizes that the Coalition needs to make a compelling case for change, as unpopularity alone is not enough to win an election. Shorten believes the Labor government has gained momentum and is focusing on cost of living, standing up to Trump, and Medicare. He criticizes the Coalition for not presenting a clear alternative.

Peter Dutton's Potential

Pine argues that Peter Dutton has been underestimated and that the public is beginning to see him differently. He believes Dutton has the opportunity to redefine his image and demonstrate his capabilities as opposition leader. Shorten acknowledges that anyone can win the election, but quotes John Howard's saying, "You can't fatten a pig on Market Day," suggesting the Coalition hasn't done the necessary groundwork to present a viable alternative.

Notable Quotes

• Christopher Pine: "Donald Trump being involved in our campaign is like a loaded dog on a mining site."
• Bill Shorten: "You can't fatten a pig on Market Day" (attributing the quote to John Howard).

Synthesis/Conclusion

The discussion revolves around the key themes of Trump's influence, the Coalition's perceived lack of a clear economic plan, the challenge from right-wing minor parties, the Victorian political landscape, and the performance of the campaign so far. Both Pine and Shorten agree that the election is still open and that both sides have work to do to win over voters. A key point is the potential for Peter Dutton to redefine his image and present a compelling alternative to the Labor government.